mmmeta

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4380	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
119.910	What will UK Labour Party's 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
107.932	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Toy Story 5)	Continuous
107.860	How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?	Continuous
98.526	Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?	Binary
97.574	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
97.305	Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?	Binary
94.259	Will the Government of Albania or Prime Minister Edi Rama resign before September 2026?	Binary
93.662	Will any coding tool introduce an integration with brain-computer interface technology before November 2026?	Binary
92.191	Will Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain be lifted before August 30, 2026?	Binary
91.278	Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?	Binary
91.124	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Minions & Monsters)	Continuous
91.040	Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?	Binary
90.001	Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?	Binary
89.760	What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
89.457	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
88.970	Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026?	Binary
88.133	Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?	Binary
87.932	Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?	Binary
84.695	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
84.617	What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
84.269	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
83.853	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
83.477	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?	Binary
82.338	Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?	Binary
81.555	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
79.283	Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?	Binary
78.613	How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?	Continuous
78.585	What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
78.045	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
77.910	Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?	Binary
76.746	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
75.340	Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?	Binary
74.609	Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from South Carolina?	Multiple Choice
74.532	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
74.414	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
74.080	Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Multiple Choice
72.464	Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?	Binary
71.586	Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
69.802	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
69.511	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?	Multiple Choice
69.356	What will be the relative rank of the weakest team to advance to the knockout stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Continuous
68.695	Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Multiple Choice
68.257	Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?	Multiple Choice
67.728	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
66.944	Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?	Multiple Choice
61.382	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
60.395	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
57.276	How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?	Continuous
55.293	How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?	Multiple Choice
55.203	What will be the percentage change in the S&P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?	Continuous
55.093	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
53.452	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
53.053	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
53.049	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
51.910	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
49.689	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
48.283	Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?	Binary
48.185	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
47.514	[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?	Binary
44.621	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
43.228	Will Uber's takeover of Delivery Hero be approved by BaFin before September 2026?	Binary
42.509	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
41.863	[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?	Continuous
41.591	What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential elections?	Continuous
40.559	What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?	Continuous
39.408	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
38.249	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
37.293	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
34.671	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
32.915	Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
32.634	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2026?	Multiple Choice
31.793	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
31.334	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
30.985	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
30.370	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
28.742	How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?	Continuous
28.418	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
27.674	What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August 26, 2026?	Continuous
26.313	What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?	Continuous
25.175	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
22.949	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
20.337	What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?	Continuous
19.356	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
19.105	What will be the total number of US cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026?	Continuous
18.818	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
18.117	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
17.870	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
17.689	What percentage of the vote will Nigel Farage receive in the Clacton parliamentary by-election in August 2026?	Continuous
17.671	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
17.430	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
16.583	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?	Multiple Choice
15.035	What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?	Continuous
14.710	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
13.839	What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?	Continuous
13.482	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
12.385	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
11.835	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
11.601	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
11.481	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
10.997	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
10.625	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
10.401	What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?	Multiple Choice
9.564	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
9.547	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
9.481	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
8.993	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
8.745	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
8.347	What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?	Continuous
8.106	Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?	Binary
7.887	How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
7.823	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?	Binary
6.311	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
5.042	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
4.925	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
4.850	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
4.518	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
2.376	Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?	Multiple Choice
-	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
-0.188	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-1.907	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
-8.710	Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?	Binary
-11.260	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
-13.171	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-13.406	What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Continuous
-14.862	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
-15.826	Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?	Binary
-17.794	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-18.582	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-20.757	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
-28.894	Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?	Binary
-33.518	Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?	Binary
-41.361	Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?	Binary
-57.731	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-73.179	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-85.658	Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?	Binary
-93.007	How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?	Continuous
-96.436	What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?	Continuous
-111.383	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-142.403	Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-417.574	Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?	Binary