Gaborone

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

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2720	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.572	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
93.376	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
91.326	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
88.670	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
88.477	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
88.344	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
87.794	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
86.715	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
85.920	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
85.865	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
84.833	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
83.824	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
81.855	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
80.728	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
80.605	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
80.524	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
79.521	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
79.276	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
79.256	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
78.767	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
78.742	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
78.663	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
77.200	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
75.686	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
75.115	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
74.992	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
74.663	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
72.457	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
71.969	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
71.557	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
71.506	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
71.251	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
71.119	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
70.601	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
70.458	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
70.175	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
69.499	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
68.804	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
68.585	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
68.011	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
67.779	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
67.357	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
66.715	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
65.219	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
64.520	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
62.154	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
61.163	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
60.594	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
60.392	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
60.024	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
59.896	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
59.703	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
58.278	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
54.770	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
52.908	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
51.805	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
51.652	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
51.201	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
50.712	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
50.125	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.396	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
48.165	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
47.525	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
47.205	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
44.836	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
44.761	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.575	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
44.499	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
44.278	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
44.151	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
43.608	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
43.286	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
42.636	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
42.598	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
42.089	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
41.545	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
41.178	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
40.263	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
39.565	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
38.752	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
38.131	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
36.338	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
36.312	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
36.141	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
34.844	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
33.837	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
32.776	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
32.567	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
31.138	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
31.063	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
30.230	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
29.877	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
28.976	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
28.582	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
27.905	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
27.452	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
26.223	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
25.314	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
25.047	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
25.037	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
24.723	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
24.665	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
22.006	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.976	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
21.635	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
21.557	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
20.006	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
19.807	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
19.509	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
19.315	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
18.196	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
18.136	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
17.994	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
17.752	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
17.719	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
17.231	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
17.181	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
16.993	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
16.565	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
16.119	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
15.210	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
14.531	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
14.020	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.566	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
13.136	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
12.829	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
12.765	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
12.041	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
11.920	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
11.848	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
11.232	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
10.921	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
10.685	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
10.680	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
10.211	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
10.197	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
10.178	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
7.157	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
6.423	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
6.049	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
5.688	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
5.488	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
5.467	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
5.245	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
4.480	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
4.351	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
4.139	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
3.698	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
3.056	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
2.414	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
2.109	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
0.824	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
0.665	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-0.539	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-4.322	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-5.013	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
-6.867	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-7.206	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
-7.443	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-8.235	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-9.804	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-10.884	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-11.055	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-15.665	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-17.861	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
-18.306	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-18.877	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-20.925	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-21.421	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-22.350	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-23.453	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-24.245	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-25.571	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
-29.762	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-30.699	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
-31.489	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-33.589	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-36.082	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-41.685	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-43.312	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-47.968	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-53.453	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-56.068	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-59.145	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
-61.386	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-69.770	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-80.031	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-83.197	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-84.636	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-91.763	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-95.107	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-105.002	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-105.894	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-106.177	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-125.156	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-136.361	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-139.527	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-158.876	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-160.815	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-179.760	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-199.649	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-200.299	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-212.510	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-213.460	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-246.075	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-323.575	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary