rednamlooc

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2042	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.879	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
93.474	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
90.820	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
87.420	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
87.239	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
87.201	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
87.171	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
85.765	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
84.414	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
84.253	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
82.085	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
80.900	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
80.540	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
79.898	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
78.278	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
76.731	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
76.353	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
76.107	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
73.661	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
73.095	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
73.083	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
72.274	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
70.854	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
69.215	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
68.707	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
67.526	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
66.654	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
65.989	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
65.863	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
64.058	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
62.701	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
62.518	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
62.448	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
58.980	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
58.472	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
56.587	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
55.167	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
55.120	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
52.189	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
50.652	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.166	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
48.895	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
48.077	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
47.337	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
46.887	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
45.945	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
45.788	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
45.199	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
44.760	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
42.753	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
42.667	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
42.327	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
42.191	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
41.520	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
39.775	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
39.595	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
39.510	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
36.916	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
36.661	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
35.490	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
35.410	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
34.572	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
34.297	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
33.673	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
32.275	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
32.246	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
31.083	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
31.065	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
29.323	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
25.476	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
25.281	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
24.258	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.746	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
21.525	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
20.736	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
18.906	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
18.878	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.236	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
16.152	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
15.916	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
14.515	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
13.398	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
12.518	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
12.389	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
12.344	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
11.827	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
11.430	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
11.056	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
9.199	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
7.019	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
5.943	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
3.876	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
3.382	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
3.350	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
3.015	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
0.623	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
-1.254	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-1.294	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-4.964	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-6.725	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
-7.432	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-10.139	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-10.286	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-10.556	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-10.890	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-13.579	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-15.327	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-16.300	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-17.932	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-18.009	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-21.672	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
-23.620	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-24.627	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-24.949	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-26.851	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-27.101	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-34.678	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-34.896	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-35.012	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-37.465	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-38.068	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-44.186	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-44.872	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-59.976	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-60.128	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-62.822	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-63.072	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-67.909	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-78.192	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-81.367	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-81.415	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-87.219	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-92.876	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-104.254	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-116.114	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-118.753	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-161.210	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-164.786	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-168.975	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-418.930	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary