Big-eyed

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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42.25		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
168.321	100.0%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
167.415	99.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
148.639	99.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
111.940	92.2%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
110.532	82.8%	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
107.163	92.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
106.087	64.7%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
102.182	91.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
102.023	99.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
98.207	82.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
95.144	100.0%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
91.441	87.1%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.031	85.3%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
78.096	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
76.540	99.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
76.449	98.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
73.869	99.1%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
73.437	99.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
68.466	79.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
64.367	88.1%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
64.101	97.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
63.129	94.4%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
62.179	87.6%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
62.007	99.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
60.552	90.4%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
60.342	99.6%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
59.491	71.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
59.447	100.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
56.988	90.4%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
55.943	99.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
53.158	82.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
47.526	99.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
44.567	99.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
42.366	99.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
39.064	100.0%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
36.019	98.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
35.308	98.5%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
34.901	66.0%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
33.251	84.4%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
33.076	87.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
32.755	69.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
32.697	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
32.689	100.0%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
31.490	84.0%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.254	98.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
30.977	99.9%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
30.913	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
29.793	53.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
29.223	100.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.016	97.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
28.001	69.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
27.523	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
26.026	81.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
24.351	55.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
24.125	78.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
24.044	100.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
22.560	99.9%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
22.355	99.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
21.671	99.9%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
21.346	58.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
20.390	97.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
20.138	94.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
19.200	99.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
18.894	99.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
17.925	90.4%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
17.729	97.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
16.214	69.0%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
15.913	98.7%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.148	37.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
13.719	73.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
13.224	91.1%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
12.895	54.0%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
12.531	49.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
12.498	100.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
12.109	85.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
11.484	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.057	67.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
10.257	99.6%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
9.474	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
9.327	18.9%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
8.776	100.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
7.431	99.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
5.811	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
5.162	22.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
3.929	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
3.792	91.1%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
2.905	90.3%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
1.913	85.0%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
1.661	91.0%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
0.544	5.3%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
0.313	81.0%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
0.307	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
0.015	0.0%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-0.010	0.4%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-1.337	27.7%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
-3.632	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-4.913	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-9.694	97.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-10.518	97.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-10.599	100.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-11.543	28.4%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-22.967	88.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-31.537	82.5%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-110.608	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary