Zaldath

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

7.045		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
120.781	82.5%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
99.319	99.8%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
74.405	97.9%	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31)	Binary
74.348	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
73.868	100.0%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
68.681	93.7%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
61.220	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
60.371	99.8%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
48.916	99.6%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
47.273	98.6%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
44.097	99.1%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
42.466	98.4%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
41.843	100.0%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
41.798	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
40.894	99.9%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
40.525	98.2%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
40.401	98.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
38.647	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
38.359	99.8%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
37.165	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
36.057	93.9%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
36.052	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
35.598	94.6%	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1)	Binary
35.569	98.4%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
35.224	88.1%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
34.397	99.9%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
33.598	99.6%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
33.021	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
32.762	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
32.598	99.3%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
30.852	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
30.529	99.6%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
30.282	99.3%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
30.245	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
29.320	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
28.941	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
28.806	73.1%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
28.476	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
27.946	98.9%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
27.045	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
26.934	94.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
26.622	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
26.391	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
26.134	59.8%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
25.710	93.9%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
25.392	84.5%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
25.269	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
24.989	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
24.498	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
23.617	97.7%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2022)	Continuous
23.540	99.5%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
22.610	22.4%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
21.253	99.3%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
20.966	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
20.830	99.5%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
20.514	94.8%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
20.417	98.9%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
20.388	99.9%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
20.194	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
20.166	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
20.127	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
19.818	99.2%	What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.802	98.8%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
19.662	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
19.108	83.3%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
18.867	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
18.787	83.3%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
18.341	100.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
18.330	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
17.606	75.4%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
17.334	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
17.131	98.9%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
17.070	93.7%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
16.621	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
16.141	99.9%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
15.976	99.9%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.893	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
15.733	97.5%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
15.231	99.7%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.113	88.9%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
15.052	98.4%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
14.965	98.4%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
14.822	62.0%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
14.800	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
14.631	99.7%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.550	99.7%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
13.972	78.6%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
13.737	64.6%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
13.720	99.7%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
12.924	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
12.649	98.6%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
12.522	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
12.521	99.2%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
12.113	74.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
11.880	99.2%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
11.789	99.6%	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
11.709	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
11.657	99.9%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
11.588	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
11.568	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
11.545	77.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City)	Binary
11.302	98.4%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
11.239	100.0%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
11.223	99.9%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
11.139	99.7%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
11.040	39.7%	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
10.798	98.9%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.675	99.3%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
10.532	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
10.484	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
10.471	99.6%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
10.299	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
10.247	100.0%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
10.041	98.9%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
9.970	96.3%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
9.958	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
9.849	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
9.689	99.7%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
9.463	91.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
9.282	98.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
9.068	98.8%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
9.000	99.6%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
8.814	97.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
8.761	98.9%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
8.723	94.4%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
8.599	69.9%	What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.575	99.6%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
8.472	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
8.334	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
8.243	23.5%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
8.233	99.8%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
8.062	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
7.985	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
7.811	93.7%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.621	91.9%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
7.599	99.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
7.571	98.7%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.549	15.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
7.436	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
7.406	98.9%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.390	99.9%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
7.342	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
7.319	99.2%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.305	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
7.262	93.8%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
7.229	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
7.176	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
7.097	94.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
7.035	98.4%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
6.939	72.1%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
6.845	94.8%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
6.793	98.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
6.735	67.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
6.729	99.3%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
6.718	64.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
6.365	99.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.185	91.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
6.172	98.7%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
6.141	79.1%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
6.062	93.7%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
6.004	74.5%	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
5.785	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
5.759	81.8%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
5.694	93.7%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
5.535	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
5.437	14.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
5.382	69.9%	What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.219	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
4.869	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
4.791	98.4%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
4.703	86.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)	Binary
4.645	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
4.548	87.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves)	Binary
4.502	96.8%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
4.399	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
4.393	94.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
4.386	76.5%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
4.386	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
4.376	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.249	76.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat)	Binary
4.236	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
4.199	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
4.198	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
4.166	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.099	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.068	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
4.048	96.5%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
4.016	76.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona)	Binary
3.989	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
3.987	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
3.925	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
3.881	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
3.863	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
3.863	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
3.854	76.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
3.811	54.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs)	Binary
3.756	81.4%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
3.700	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
3.677	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
3.674	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
3.535	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
3.526	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.497	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.429	64.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.423	21.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
3.417	100.0%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
3.317	98.9%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.229	98.4%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
3.185	99.2%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
3.179	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.089	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
3.065	21.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
3.024	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
2.992	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
2.985	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.969	82.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder)	Binary
2.922	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
2.915	70.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
2.862	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
2.841	79.1%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
2.814	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
2.793	99.3%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
2.787	94.8%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
2.770	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
2.741	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.712	75.3%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
2.667	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
2.662	99.5%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
2.656	98.9%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
2.561	36.1%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
2.532	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
2.523	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
2.467	77.5%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic)	Binary
2.443	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
2.438	94.4%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
2.424	14.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
2.394	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.375	29.2%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.357	31.0%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024)	Continuous
2.350	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
2.341	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
2.303	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
2.282	89.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.274	81.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
2.178	76.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid)	Binary
2.135	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
2.102	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
2.074	98.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
2.049	94.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
1.993	71.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings)	Binary
1.979	23.3%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
1.964	99.3%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
1.961	67.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
1.959	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
1.909	83.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks)	Binary
1.908	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
1.899	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.876	56.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad)	Binary
1.846	98.4%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
1.827	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.787	74.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
1.785	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
1.773	57.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig)	Binary
1.761	98.9%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.751	75.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans)	Binary
1.727	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.719	86.5%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers)	Binary
1.662	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
1.658	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
1.658	15.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
1.643	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.639	80.5%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
1.634	92.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.623	60.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan)	Binary
1.567	99.8%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
1.538	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
1.529	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.510	9.2%	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
1.487	60.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto)	Binary
1.452	71.2%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls)	Binary
1.451	59.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
1.432	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
1.429	21.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.412	62.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz)	Binary
1.343	14.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
1.325	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.320	56.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio)	Binary
1.320	60.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV)	Binary
1.316	93.9%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
1.298	99.3%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
1.289	70.4%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks)	Binary
1.287	62.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors)	Binary
1.231	39.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
1.231	57.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen)	Binary
1.185	69.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.160	66.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets)	Binary
1.140	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.123	1.9%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
1.122	98.6%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
1.100	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.092	4.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
1.084	66.6%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets)	Binary
1.083	99.8%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.053	60.4%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets)	Binary
0.999	79.1%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.997	55.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards)	Binary
0.990	54.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons)	Binary
0.985	57.9%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers)	Binary
0.982	95.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
0.981	30.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.957	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.928	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.925	17.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.916	15.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
0.910	93.5%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
0.907	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
0.904	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.898	39.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.818	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
0.805	17.4%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
0.766	99.9%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
0.729	23.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.728	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.716	17.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray)	Binary
0.696	17.8%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.692	9.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
0.683	91.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.672	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
0.662	7.2%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
0.631	17.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga)	Binary
0.624	9.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.577	11.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla)	Binary
0.574	14.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
0.563	86.6%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
0.560	100.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
0.525	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
0.500	11.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens)	Binary
0.490	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
0.486	10.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord)	Binary
0.481	60.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli)	Binary
0.462	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.447	18.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.426	10.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda)	Binary
0.424	85.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.424	57.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.423	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.412	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.409	15.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
0.391	17.8%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk)	Binary
0.383	25.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.380	50.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.375	14.9%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
0.355	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.350	17.8%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan)	Binary
0.345	72.5%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
0.342	10.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic)	Binary
0.337	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.334	4.9%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
0.333	0.7%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.321	14.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
0.275	6.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.260	9.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
0.248	4.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
0.244	54.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.224	9.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
0.199	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.192	4.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
0.167	21.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.156	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.141	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.123	83.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.114	5.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
0.089	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.077	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.073	1.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp)	Binary
0.068	1.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg)	Binary
0.067	1.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica)	Binary
0.064	1.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin)	Binary
0.062	0.5%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
0.059	83.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.044	96.9%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
0.032	0.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys)	Binary
0.026	0.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
0.015	0.0%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
0.013	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-0.010	93.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
-0.013	95.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
-0.067	4.9%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
-0.107	14.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-0.113	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
-0.151	15.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
-0.227	94.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
-0.231	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
-0.254	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
-0.288	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
-0.463	21.9%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-0.556	9.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
-0.679	93.7%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
-0.680	79.1%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-0.698	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
-0.711	98.4%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.912	48.0%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-0.919	9.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
-1.570	99.8%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-1.597	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
-1.687	99.7%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
-1.864	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-1.880	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
-2.034	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-2.542	99.9%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
-2.763	85.6%	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-2.868	77.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal)	Binary
-2.928	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
-2.975	97.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
-3.054	86.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)	Binary
-3.090	94.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
-3.145	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
-3.193	14.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
-3.277	99.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
-3.762	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-4.272	93.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
-4.794	14.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
-4.815	99.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-5.191	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-5.684	98.4%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-5.803	90.5%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-6.171	89.7%	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
-7.669	99.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
-7.907	74.8%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
-8.518	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-9.099	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-9.139	79.1%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
-9.769	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-10.090	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
-11.747	68.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
-13.011	99.2%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
-13.059	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
-14.178	98.4%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
-14.789	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-14.964	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
-15.019	100.0%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
-16.310	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
-17.212	99.4%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
-18.845	28.1%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2024)	Continuous
-19.152	89.2%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-19.768	98.1%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
-19.911	18.7%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
-20.398	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
-20.673	99.6%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
-23.672	99.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-24.525	99.8%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
-27.949	97.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
-28.236	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
-34.766	76.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-35.467	97.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
-41.562	99.4%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
-45.394	98.0%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
-49.724	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
-49.816	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
-55.688	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
-84.030	98.0%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
-85.334	96.9%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-102.281	97.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
-132.718	98.0%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous