121.019 | How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025? | Continuous |
118.136 | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
97.701 | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
96.180 | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
94.604 | Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections? | Binary |
94.271 | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
91.590 | Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada? | Multiple Choice |
91.583 | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
91.418 | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
91.246 | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
90.788 | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
90.605 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR) | Binary |
89.518 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka) | Binary |
89.516 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk) | Binary |
89.326 | Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025? | Binary |
89.063 | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
88.524 | Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
88.508 | Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025? | Binary |
88.244 | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
86.825 | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
86.693 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
86.417 | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
84.898 | Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
84.715 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025? | Binary |
84.521 | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
83.013 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
82.281 | Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
82.013 | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
82.004 | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
81.188 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
80.216 | How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
79.844 | Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%? | Binary |
79.696 | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
79.528 | Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025? | Binary |
79.485 | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
79.371 | Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025? | Binary |
79.197 | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
78.500 | What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025? | Continuous |
77.886 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
77.809 | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
76.662 | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
76.440 | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
75.666 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
75.464 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
75.437 | Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025? | Binary |
74.744 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
74.428 | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
73.820 | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
73.638 | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
73.604 | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
72.694 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
72.526 | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
71.821 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
70.862 | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
67.004 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
66.408 | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
66.262 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
64.847 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
63.856 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6) | Continuous |
63.246 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23) | Continuous |
63.044 | How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
61.437 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
61.171 | Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
60.739 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025) | Continuous |
60.724 | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
60.537 | Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025? | Binary |
60.424 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
60.321 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
59.739 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD) | Continuous |
59.490 | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
58.911 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
58.816 | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
58.521 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
57.150 | Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025? | Binary |
56.715 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
56.437 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
56.299 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20) | Continuous |
55.387 | Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
55.034 | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
54.359 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
54.353 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
53.785 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD) | Binary |
53.699 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
53.665 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
53.611 | What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025? | Continuous |
53.266 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
52.993 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
52.538 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
52.216 | Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025? | Binary |
51.873 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
51.645 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
50.934 | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
49.988 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
49.441 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
49.379 | Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? | Binary |
49.299 | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
47.365 | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
47.318 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad) | Binary |
47.250 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
45.303 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue) | Continuous |
44.750 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses) | Continuous |
44.748 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025) | Continuous |
44.685 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27) | Continuous |
44.072 | How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025? | Continuous |
42.874 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN) | Continuous |
42.312 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025) | Continuous |
41.997 | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
41.401 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
41.355 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025? | Continuous |
40.810 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
40.389 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13) | Continuous |
40.065 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
39.779 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin) | Continuous |
38.811 | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
38.666 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
38.532 | How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
37.170 | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
37.055 | Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
36.355 | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
36.205 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
35.275 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
34.822 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
34.701 | Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation? | Binary |
34.695 | What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units? | Continuous |
34.599 | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
34.094 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
33.858 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
33.211 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
33.017 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
32.395 | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
31.342 | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
31.302 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
29.040 | Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September? | Binary |
28.922 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
28.377 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
28.087 | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
27.911 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
26.585 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
26.585 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025) | Binary |
26.545 | Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Binary |
25.755 | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
25.540 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES) | Binary |
25.438 | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
25.333 | Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
24.651 | Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from? | Multiple Choice |
24.433 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
23.265 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
23.123 | How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week? | Multiple Choice |
23.075 | What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
23.060 | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
22.713 | Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)? | Binary |
22.559 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
22.448 | Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025? | Binary |
22.049 | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
21.204 | How many parties will be in the next German parliament? | Multiple Choice |
19.841 | By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup? | Multiple Choice |
19.607 | Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion) | Binary |
18.757 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
18.202 | Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place? | Binary |
18.047 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
17.454 | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
17.299 | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
17.294 | What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025? | Continuous |
17.172 | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
16.982 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27) | Binary |
16.294 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
16.196 | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
15.748 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2) | Binary |
15.732 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | Binary |
15.237 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025) | Binary |
15.006 | When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill? | Multiple Choice |
14.818 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
14.558 | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
14.054 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | Binary |
13.491 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30) | Continuous |
12.970 | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
12.814 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025) | Binary |
12.726 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election? | Multiple Choice |
12.133 | How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend? | Continuous |
10.843 | Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections? | Binary |
10.811 | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
9.871 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25) | Binary |
9.723 | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
9.658 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025) | Binary |
9.593 | What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
9.219 | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
8.794 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9) | Continuous |
8.614 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
7.256 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
6.621 | What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)? | Multiple Choice |
6.383 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
6.250 | How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
6.204 | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
6.200 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
5.730 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
5.652 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
5.553 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
5.223 | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
4.746 | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
4.326 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey) | Continuous |
4.262 | Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026? | Binary |
4.255 | What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election? | Continuous |
2.536 | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
2.293 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
2.081 | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
2.034 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
1.710 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.958 | What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025? | Continuous |
-2.088 | What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
-4.170 | What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act? | Multiple Choice |
-4.446 | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
-4.615 | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
-5.075 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
-5.086 | What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025? | Continuous |
-5.132 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
-6.080 | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
-6.116 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
-6.620 | How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025? | Continuous |
-7.367 | What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Continuous |
-8.681 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2) | Binary |
-9.596 | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
-9.750 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
-10.162 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
-10.665 | [Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-10.844 | Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025? | Binary |
-12.663 | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
-13.234 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
-13.955 | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
-14.932 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2) | Continuous |
-15.198 | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
-16.278 | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
-17.143 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN) | Binary |
-20.285 | What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025? | Continuous |
-20.598 | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-22.008 | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-22.122 | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
-24.441 | What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025? | Continuous |
-26.197 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25) | Continuous |
-29.006 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
-29.635 | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
-33.826 | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
-37.296 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13) | Binary |
-43.176 | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-44.994 | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
-48.156 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
-51.913 | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
-52.647 | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
-62.097 | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
-72.827 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
-78.581 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD) | Binary |
-81.833 | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
-94.401 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-100.012 | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
-101.743 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
-102.637 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
-116.376 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-119.125 | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-129.747 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16) | Continuous |
-131.383 | Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
-146.402 | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
-151.518 | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-579.636 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |