DaAdCh

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9626	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.886	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
92.803	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
92.573	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
92.551	Will Bangladesh's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina return from exile before the following years? (Before 2026)	Binary
88.077	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
87.384	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
87.300	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
87.203	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
87.170	Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?	Binary
86.512	Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?	Binary
85.333	Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?	Binary
84.752	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
84.146	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
84.036	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
83.711	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Eduardo Artés)	Binary
83.711	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Marco Enríquez-Ominami)	Binary
83.710	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Harold Mayne-Nicholls)	Binary
83.710	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Franco Parisi)	Binary
83.191	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Johannes Kaiser)	Binary
82.810	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
81.317	Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?	Binary
81.276	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
80.577	Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?	Binary
79.747	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
79.286	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
78.613	Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?	Binary
78.227	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
77.593	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
77.530	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
77.096	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Evelyn Matthei)	Binary
76.873	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
75.671	Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?	Binary
75.381	Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.069	Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?	Binary
75.023	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
74.947	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
74.579	Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?	Binary
74.337	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
74.334	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
73.825	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
73.797	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
73.660	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
73.587	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
73.472	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
72.919	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
72.583	Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?	Binary
72.378	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
70.632	Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?	Binary
70.283	Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Multiple Choice
69.224	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
68.571	Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?	Binary
67.801	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
67.027	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
66.670	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
65.938	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
65.860	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
64.922	Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?	Binary
64.469	Before December 1, 2025, how many banks will be added to the FDIC's Failed Bank List?	Continuous
64.022	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
63.975	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
62.746	Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?	Binary
62.461	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
62.280	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
60.983	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
60.673	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
60.653	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
60.463	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
60.143	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
59.514	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
58.520	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
58.182	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
58.151	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
57.570	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
57.031	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
56.658	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
56.414	What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?	Continuous
55.950	Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?	Multiple Choice
55.540	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
53.958	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
53.725	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
53.529	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
53.452	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
53.253	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
52.963	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
52.597	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
51.712	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
51.450	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
51.066	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
50.873	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
50.764	Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?	Binary
50.294	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
48.750	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
48.055	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
47.680	Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?	Binary
47.491	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
47.078	Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?	Binary
46.144	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
46.129	Where will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be on October 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
45.825	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
45.761	[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?	Binary
44.496	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
44.493	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
44.398	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
44.079	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
43.391	Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?	Multiple Choice
42.646	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
42.599	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
42.328	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
41.902	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
41.646	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
41.627	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
41.301	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
41.071	Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?	Binary
40.566	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
40.367	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Ukraine)	Binary
40.252	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Peru)	Binary
39.957	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (José Antonio Kast)	Binary
39.795	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
39.795	Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?	Multiple Choice
39.568	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
39.522	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)	Binary
38.884	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
38.696	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
38.687	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
38.574	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
38.281	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
38.187	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
37.053	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
36.772	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
36.715	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
36.265	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
35.876	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
35.356	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
34.885	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
34.827	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.658	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
34.503	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
34.359	Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?	Binary
34.171	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
34.114	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
32.930	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
32.892	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
32.553	When will Claude Plays Pokemon beat the first Pokémon game?	Continuous
32.489	When will Donald Trump sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill averting or ending a government shutdown?	Continuous
32.468	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
32.339	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
32.200	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
31.828	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
31.757	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)	Binary
31.729	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
31.421	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
31.277	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
30.813	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
30.344	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
30.299	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
30.050	When will the 2025 Australian Federal election be held?	Continuous
29.759	Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?	Binary
29.553	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (R Praggnanandhaa)	Binary
29.553	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
29.553	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
29.553	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
29.305	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Aravindh Chithambaram)	Binary
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
28.274	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
27.983	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
27.705	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
27.579	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
27.377	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
27.377	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
27.377	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
27.377	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Shakhriyar Mamedyarov)	Binary
27.377	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Ding Liren)	Binary
27.156	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
26.627	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
26.512	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
26.339	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
26.315	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
26.231	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
26.177	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
26.177	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
26.177	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
26.076	Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?	Binary
26.006	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
25.744	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
25.719	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
25.685	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
25.537	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
25.368	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
25.129	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
24.911	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
24.720	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
24.686	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
24.362	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
24.301	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
24.294	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
23.781	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
23.712	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
23.652	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
23.471	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
23.371	Who Will be President of Zimbabwe on January 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
23.361	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-25)	Continuous
23.100	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
23.047	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2025 NBA Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.968	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)	Binary
22.859	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
22.561	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
22.497	Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?	Binary
22.478	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Turkiye)	Binary
22.054	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Javokhir Sindarov)	Binary
22.054	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Wei Yi)	Binary
21.963	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
21.857	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
21.574	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
21.080	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
20.873	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
20.487	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
20.209	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Jeannette Jara)	Binary
19.999	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
19.834	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
19.796	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
19.796	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
19.665	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
19.528	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
19.515	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
19.372	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
19.197	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
19.134	Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?	Binary
19.036	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
19.027	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
18.916	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
18.782	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
18.586	Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?	Binary
17.786	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
17.254	How many days of snow will New York City see between December 11, 2025 and January 10, 2026?	Multiple Choice
17.168	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
16.899	Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?	Binary
16.842	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
16.838	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
16.534	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
16.383	Which group will win the most seats in the 2025 Czech parliamentary election?	Multiple Choice
16.074	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
16.040	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?	Binary
15.983	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
15.905	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
15.568	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
15.313	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
15.049	Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?	Binary
14.480	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
14.472	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (DeepSeek)	Binary
14.404	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
14.157	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
14.104	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
13.901	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
13.811	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
13.685	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
13.442	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
13.269	Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?	Binary
13.238	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
13.099	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
12.941	Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?	Binary
12.867	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
12.756	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
12.491	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
12.154	Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?	Binary
11.945	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
11.785	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
11.763	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.555	Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?	Binary
11.523	What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Continuous
11.317	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
11.249	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
10.779	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
10.497	Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)	Binary
10.033	Will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom win 33 or more seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives in the 2025 election?	Binary
9.844	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
9.819	When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?	Continuous
9.722	Who will win the 2025 Green Party of England and Wales leadership election?	Multiple Choice
9.564	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-25)	Continuous
9.462	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
9.429	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
9.354	What will be the global year-over-year change in seated diners reported by OpenTable for the week ending January 1, 2026?	Continuous
9.144	Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?	Binary
9.031	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
8.650	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
8.453	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
8.397	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
8.300	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
8.087	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
7.931	Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?	Binary
7.750	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.653	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
7.497	How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?	Continuous
7.461	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
7.263	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
7.204	Will Boeing's total revenue for 2025 be equal to or higher than $85 billion?	Binary
7.098	[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?	Binary
7.070	Which party will win the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election?	Multiple Choice
6.673	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
6.538	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
6.293	How many vehicle deliveries will Rivian report for Q4 2025?	Continuous
6.168	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2025)	Continuous
6.119	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
5.984	Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?	Binary
5.795	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
5.705	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
5.316	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
5.207	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.127	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
4.706	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
4.627	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
4.570	What will the winning time be in the Men's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships?	Continuous
4.533	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
4.485	Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?	Binary
4.107	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
4.020	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
3.885	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
3.734	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
3.514	What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?	Continuous
3.480	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
3.403	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
3.245	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
2.995	Will Ghana sign into law "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values" bill before 2026?	Binary
2.828	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.673	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
2.571	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
2.345	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
2.078	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
1.979	Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?	Binary
1.577	What will be the result of the vote chess game, IM Levy Rozman Vs. The World?	Multiple Choice
1.572	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
1.396	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
1.346	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Lebanon)	Binary
1.159	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
1.141	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
1.094	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
1.074	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
0.956	Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?	Binary
0.617	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
0.406	Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?	Binary
0.146	Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?	Binary
0.142	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
0.098	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
0.063	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
0.062	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
0.046	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
0.032	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
0.018	What will the winning time be in the Women's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships?	Continuous
-	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
-	Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?	Binary
-0.009	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-0.171	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-0.380	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-1.170	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-1.619	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-1.883	Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?	Binary
-1.885	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-2.135	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-2.417	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-2.738	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-3.060	Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?	Binary
-3.125	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
-3.598	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-4.433	Will the US unemployment rate for December 2025 be higher than November 2025?	Binary
-5.436	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-5.868	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-7.545	Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?	Binary
-12.058	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
-13.558	How many new energy vehicle sales will BYD report for December 2025?	Continuous
-13.646	Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-13.712	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in November 2025?	Continuous
-14.139	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-16.431	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-18.566	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-20.442	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-20.900	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-23.263	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
-23.424	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-38.805	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-39.456	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-43.406	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-45.325	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-50.569	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-52.551	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-55.631	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026? (Yes) → Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?	Binary
-62.192	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-71.947	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
-74.406	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-88.979	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-97.095	Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?	Binary
-102.390	Will the US import more shrimp in 2025 than 2024?	Binary
-105.715	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-114.086	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-136.157	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-175.856	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-465.830	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary