DaAdCh

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8181	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
115.496	What will UK Labour Party's 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
99.483	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
99.423	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
96.748	Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029? (2026)	Binary
96.242	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
94.364	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
93.081	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?	Binary
91.000	Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before September 1, 2026?	Binary
90.619	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
90.473	Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?	Binary
88.390	Will the Government of Albania or Prime Minister Edi Rama resign before September 2026?	Binary
87.843	Will Bitcoin trade above $120,000 before August 1, 2026?	Binary
87.141	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
87.004	Will Iran and U.S play against each other in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
86.962	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 18 - May 29)	Continuous
86.862	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (March 2026)	Continuous
85.020	How many MPs will Reform UK have on May 7, 2026?	Continuous
84.894	How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?	Continuous
84.817	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
84.609	Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?	Binary
82.895	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before September 1, 2026?	Binary
81.333	What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
78.872	Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?	Binary
78.752	Will Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain be lifted before August 30, 2026?	Binary
77.936	Will a Tucker Carlson-founded political party file FEC Form 1 before September 2026?	Binary
77.282	What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
77.132	Will Mitch McConnell cast a roll-call vote in the U.S. Senate before September 2026?	Binary
75.791	Will any U.S. Supreme Court justice announce their retirement before September 1, 2026?	Binary
75.250	Will any host nation (USA, Mexico or Canada) reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup?	Binary
75.092	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
74.340	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
73.897	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
73.785	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Sep 7 - Sep 18)	Continuous
73.050	Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
72.971	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
72.842	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Samuel A. Alito, Jr.)	Binary
72.712	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
72.217	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
71.829	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
71.423	Will Thomas Massie file to run for any elective office before August 25, 2026?	Binary
71.026	Before September 1, 2026, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?	Binary
70.416	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Sep 7 - Sep 18)	Continuous
69.958	Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Binary
69.548	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
69.514	How many confirmed cases will the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak reach? (Sep 1, 2026)	Continuous
69.332	Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?	Binary
69.169	What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?	Continuous
68.983	Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026?	Binary
68.210	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
67.572	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
67.415	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Brett M. Kavanaugh)	Binary
65.980	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
65.980	Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026?	Binary
65.954	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
65.523	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
64.308	Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?	Binary
64.207	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
64.002	Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?	Binary
63.945	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on September 8, 2026?	Continuous
63.733	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
63.435	Will gas prices in the U.S. reach a new all-time high before September 6, 2026?	Binary
62.724	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
61.525	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
60.953	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
59.863	Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?	Binary
59.694	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
59.043	Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?	Binary
58.866	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
58.863	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?	Continuous
58.716	What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
57.503	How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?	Continuous
57.433	How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?	Continuous
57.226	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
54.281	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
54.062	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?	Continuous
53.841	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
53.771	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
53.590	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
53.244	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
53.225	Will Starlink's website show South Africa as a country with Starlink availability before September 1, 2026?	Binary
52.728	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
52.273	Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?	Binary
52.247	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
52.115	Which NHL team will win the 2026 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
52.026	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?	Binary
51.561	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
51.530	Which country will be ranked the least peaceful in the Global Peace Index 2026?	Multiple Choice
51.406	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
49.903	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
49.872	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
49.670	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
49.493	Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?	Binary
49.425	Will Haiti hold the first round of its presidential election before September 1, 2026?	Binary
48.945	Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
48.430	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on August 15, 2026?	Continuous
48.219	Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?	Binary
48.038	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
47.928	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
47.495	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
47.379	Will former U.S. Representative George Santos be arrested before September 1, 2026?	Binary
47.028	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
46.988	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?	Multiple Choice
46.671	Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?	Binary
46.390	Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?	Binary
46.378	Who will win the Tour de France 2026?	Multiple Choice
46.120	Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?	Binary
44.239	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
43.753	What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential elections?	Continuous
43.566	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
43.181	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Ketanji Brown Jackson)	Binary
42.631	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
42.480	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
42.261	What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?	Continuous
42.116	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
41.903	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
41.483	How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?	Continuous
40.672	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
40.100	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
39.982	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Clarence Thomas)	Binary
39.813	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
39.808	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
39.533	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
38.740	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in August 2026?	Continuous
38.725	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
38.660	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
38.431	Will Iran participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
37.696	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
36.668	Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?	Binary
36.467	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
36.401	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
36.314	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
36.007	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
35.747	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
35.741	Who will be the 2026 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senator from Maine?	Multiple Choice
35.398	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
35.037	Will Death Valley hit 125 degrees in August 2026?	Binary
34.891	Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?	Binary
34.797	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on February 14, 2026?	Continuous
34.742	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
34.714	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
34.682	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
34.499	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
34.388	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
34.339	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
34.337	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
33.912	Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?	Binary
33.681	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on August 14, 2026?	Continuous
32.770	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
32.702	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
32.663	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Toy Story 5)	Continuous
32.091	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
31.831	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before September 1, 2026?	Binary
31.335	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
30.959	How many seats will the Ädilet party win in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?	Continuous
30.284	Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire on August 31, 2026?	Binary
30.187	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
29.543	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
29.540	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
29.443	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
29.266	What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?	Continuous
29.123	Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?	Binary
28.635	[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?	Continuous
28.553	How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?	Continuous
28.478	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
28.307	Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
28.302	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
28.137	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
27.794	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
27.754	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
27.642	Will another company get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in July or August 2026?	Binary
27.551	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Sep 7 - Sep 18)	Continuous
27.442	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
27.309	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
27.200	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
26.892	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
26.837	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-26)	Continuous
26.465	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
26.411	What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?	Continuous
26.285	Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election?	Multiple Choice
25.995	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
25.927	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
25.575	Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?	Binary
25.166	Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Multiple Choice
25.110	What will be the total number of US cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026?	Continuous
25.015	Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from South Carolina?	Multiple Choice
24.729	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
24.699	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
24.686	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
24.623	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
24.255	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Apr-26)	Continuous
24.126	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
23.861	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?	Continuous
23.491	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
23.292	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
22.614	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
22.188	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
21.953	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2026?	Multiple Choice
21.834	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
21.729	Will the U.S. government's 30-year treasury bond remain in the ≥5% "danger zone" for the entire month of August 2026?	Binary
21.582	Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 2026?	Binary
21.252	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
21.156	What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August 26, 2026?	Continuous
20.730	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
20.413	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
19.966	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
19.928	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
19.526	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
19.496	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
19.349	What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?	Continuous
19.289	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
18.800	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
18.732	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
18.729	Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" population cap referendum?	Binary
18.633	Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental United States before September 1, 2026?	Binary
18.428	Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?	Binary
17.784	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
17.719	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
17.515	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (ΑΜΖΝ)	Continuous
17.491	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
17.293	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
17.030	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
16.536	Which album will win the Best Traditional Country Album Award at the 2026 Grammys?	Multiple Choice
16.514	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
16.482	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
16.308	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
16.286	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Meta)	Continuous
15.026	[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?	Binary
14.976	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
14.907	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (April 2026)	Continuous
14.776	Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 6th Congo province before September 1, 2026?	Binary
14.700	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
14.671	What percentage of the vote will Nigel Farage receive in the Clacton parliamentary by-election in August 2026?	Continuous
14.560	What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
14.434	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
14.417	How many barrels of crude oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on April 30, 2026?	Continuous
14.316	What will be the percentage change in the S&P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?	Continuous
14.202	Will Hakainde Hichilema receive at least 65% of the vote in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
14.062	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
14.016	Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?	Binary
13.744	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
13.347	When will Claude Plays Pokemon beat the first Pokémon game? (2026)	Continuous
13.049	Will OpenAI publicly file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?	Binary
12.857	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
12.795	What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
12.566	Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Binary
12.450	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
12.368	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
12.350	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
12.238	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
11.973	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
11.787	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
11.763	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 18 - May 29)	Continuous
11.534	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before June 1, 2026?	Binary
11.526	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
11.299	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
11.140	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
11.086	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
10.981	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
10.827	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
10.771	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
10.329	Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?	Binary
9.901	What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
9.782	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
9.765	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
9.689	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
9.562	What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
9.312	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
9.090	What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
8.960	What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?	Continuous
8.898	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
8.549	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Tesla)	Continuous
8.525	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
8.448	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
8.303	What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
8.237	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
7.628	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
7.517	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
7.490	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
7.179	What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
7.137	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
6.792	Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?	Binary
6.745	Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?	Binary
6.259	Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300 through the end of August 2026?	Binary
6.252	Will July 2026 be the warmest July on record, according to Copernicus?	Binary
5.984	Will Brent crude oil reach $100 a barrel before April 1, 2026?	Binary
5.854	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
5.286	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
5.141	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
5.007	What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Continuous
4.738	What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
4.594	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
4.504	What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?	Continuous
4.431	What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
3.935	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
3.683	Will Uber's takeover of Delivery Hero be approved by BaFin before September 2026?	Binary
3.512	Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?	Binary
3.483	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
3.368	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
3.292	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
3.176	Which current Brazilian state governors will register as candidates for the 2026 Presidential Election? (Ronaldo Caiado)	Binary
3.116	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
2.992	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
2.964	Will Starlink's website show India as a country with Starlink availability before September 2026?	Binary
2.897	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
2.757	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
2.730	Will a human be #1 on the leaderboard of MarketPulse on August 25, 2026?	Binary
2.718	What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
2.691	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
2.442	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Amazon)	Continuous
2.023	How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
1.819	When will Claude Fable 5 next be publicly accessible? (US)	Continuous
1.656	Which current Brazilian state governors will register as candidates for the 2026 Presidential Election? (Romeu Zema)	Binary
1.589	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?	Binary
1.471	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
1.337	Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?	Binary
1.273	What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
1.047	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
1.008	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
0.841	What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026? (GSO Benchmark (OPT@1))	Continuous
0.818	Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?	Multiple Choice
0.777	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
0.764	What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (July 2026)	Continuous
0.764	What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (June 2026)	Continuous
0.754	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
0.490	What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (May 2026)	Continuous
0.434	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
0.403	Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone in August 2026?	Binary
0.385	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
-	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-	Will any political party or coalition acquire a supermajority in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections?	Binary
-	Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 2026?	Binary
-0.007	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?	Continuous
-0.123	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-0.159	What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
-0.340	Will OpenAI release GPT-5.5 before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-0.439	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-0.999	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
-1.821	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
-2.173	What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
-2.365	Will Dharmendra Pradhan cease to be India's Minister of Education before 2027?	Binary
-4.147	Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?	Binary
-4.544	Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?	Binary
-4.659	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 15 - Jun 26)	Continuous
-4.932	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-5.134	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
-5.145	Who will win the Achievement in Casting Oscar at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Multiple Choice
-5.213	What will be the highest intraday value of the VIX in August 2026?	Continuous
-5.844	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 13 - Jul 24)	Continuous
-5.889	Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?	Binary
-6.092	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Elena Kagan)	Binary
-6.826	Will Waymo have a service area of 1,200 square miles before July 1, 2026?	Binary
-7.520	Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?	Binary
-8.256	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-9.025	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
-9.341	Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?	Binary
-10.308	How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?	Continuous
-10.880	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-11.941	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
-12.431	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-13.975	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
-14.641	Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-14.876	Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?	Binary
-14.996	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
-15.676	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
-17.325	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before May 2026?	Binary
-17.395	Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?	Binary
-17.519	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?	Binary
-18.039	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Tesla)	Continuous
-19.629	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
-20.201	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 18 - May 29)	Continuous
-20.224	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
-21.269	Will the United States report any locally acquired New World screwworm infestation (in a human or an animal) before 2027?	Binary
-21.914	Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?	Binary
-22.073	How many parliamentary seats will the Social Democratic Party win in the Swedish 2026 general election?	Continuous
-25.606	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
-25.718	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
-26.117	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 18 - May 29)	Continuous
-27.285	Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
-27.433	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-27.613	Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?	Binary
-27.847	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-29.920	Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?	Binary
-30.210	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
-32.078	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
-32.083	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-32.595	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
-33.727	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Sep 7 - Sep 18)	Continuous
-35.081	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
-35.663	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-37.392	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
-40.029	Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-40.137	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-41.471	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-43.451	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-45.992	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
-50.137	How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?	Continuous
-51.207	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
-51.381	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-57.650	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia for August 2026?	Continuous
-60.967	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Sep 7 - Sep 18)	Continuous
-62.527	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
-65.542	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-68.021	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Amazon)	Continuous
-69.789	How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on June 1, 2026?	Continuous
-72.489	Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?	Binary
-79.972	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026?	Binary
-93.046	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-94.350	How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in August 2026?	Continuous
-115.009	Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-118.955	Which U.S. Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? (Sonia Sotomayor)	Binary
-123.247	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
-127.984	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Minions & Monsters)	Continuous
-164.021	Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?	Binary
-454.169	Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?	Binary