104.925 | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
98.315 | Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025? | Binary |
95.744 | Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada? | Multiple Choice |
95.210 | Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025? | Binary |
92.382 | Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
91.604 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
91.378 | Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025? | Binary |
90.808 | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
90.547 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
89.356 | Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
88.233 | Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025? | Binary |
87.664 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka) | Binary |
87.330 | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
85.636 | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
85.441 | Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections? | Binary |
84.531 | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
84.530 | How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025? | Continuous |
84.172 | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
81.179 | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
81.151 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
80.924 | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
80.707 | Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
79.951 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
79.163 | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
78.944 | Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025? | Binary |
78.630 | Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025? | Binary |
78.521 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
77.006 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025? | Binary |
76.751 | Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025? | Binary |
76.606 | Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25? | Binary |
76.487 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
74.792 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk) | Binary |
74.096 | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
73.679 | How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
73.525 | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
68.125 | Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
68.072 | Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
66.111 | What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025? | Continuous |
65.065 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
64.525 | Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%? | Binary |
64.403 | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
63.816 | What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024? | Continuous |
62.950 | How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
61.417 | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
58.026 | How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025? | Continuous |
57.680 | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
55.342 | Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025? | Binary |
55.339 | Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025? | Binary |
53.685 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
52.430 | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
51.957 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad) | Binary |
51.796 | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
51.666 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World) | Continuous |
49.795 | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
49.333 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
47.961 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
47.565 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
44.628 | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
43.928 | Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September? | Binary |
42.525 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25) | Continuous |
38.018 | Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? | Binary |
36.376 | What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
35.684 | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
33.930 | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
33.493 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey) | Continuous |
33.454 | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
31.504 | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
29.089 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
28.637 | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
28.401 | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
28.329 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
27.122 | Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025? | Binary |
25.423 | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
25.298 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
22.569 | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
21.627 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
19.864 | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
19.712 | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
19.119 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9) | Continuous |
18.367 | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
16.182 | Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place? | Binary |
14.433 | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
14.220 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | Binary |
14.031 | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
13.226 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
11.724 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | Binary |
11.363 | What will be the lowest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz between June 15, 2025 and September 1, 2025? | Continuous |
11.008 | Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections? | Binary |
10.750 | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
8.034 | Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026? | Binary |
7.930 | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
6.504 | Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League? | Binary |
5.707 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23) | Continuous |
5.318 | How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend? | Continuous |
4.415 | Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025? | Binary |
3.728 | Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
3.248 | Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from? | Multiple Choice |
2.004 | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
0.004 | Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025? | Binary |
0.001 | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
- | Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025? | Binary |
- | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025) | Binary |
- | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25) | Binary |
- | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
- | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
- | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
-0.296 | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
-0.638 | [Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-3.143 | How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025? | Continuous |
-3.427 | What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025? | Continuous |
-5.620 | Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025? | Binary |
-6.400 | Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
-6.616 | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
-6.758 | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
-7.264 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
-7.790 | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
-9.236 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
-12.811 | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
-15.291 | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
-16.972 | What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025? | Continuous |
-17.536 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025) | Binary |
-20.332 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election? | Multiple Choice |
-22.081 | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
-23.941 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
-29.582 | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-30.862 | Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season? | Binary |
-32.576 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
-35.095 | How many parties will be in the next German parliament? | Multiple Choice |
-35.979 | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
-36.239 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30) | Continuous |
-40.807 | Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025? | Binary |
-46.244 | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
-46.635 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2) | Continuous |
-52.440 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-65.088 | Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25? | Binary |
-67.226 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
-80.563 | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
-87.271 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-88.802 | Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
-89.485 | What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025? | Continuous |
-92.927 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2) | Binary |
-101.216 | What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025? | Continuous |
-116.226 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16) | Continuous |
-125.535 | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
-126.245 | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Binary |
-144.990 | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-157.385 | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
-160.779 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |
-207.504 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2) | Binary |