Zaldath

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.277	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
134.385	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
130.306	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
121.562	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
83.635	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
83.031	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
79.362	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
67.826	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
67.415	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
61.917	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
61.241	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
58.403	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
57.010	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
49.019	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
48.291	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
47.910	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
47.590	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
45.993	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
44.393	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
44.222	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
43.424	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
42.077	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
41.408	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
40.853	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
40.551	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
40.221	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
39.164	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
38.953	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
38.661	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
38.142	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
37.843	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
37.561	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
37.220	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
36.993	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.419	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
33.721	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
33.557	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
33.454	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
33.186	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
32.967	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
30.507	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
30.381	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
30.069	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
29.806	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
29.521	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
29.508	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
29.416	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
29.197	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
28.737	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
28.724	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
27.969	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
27.701	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
27.119	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
26.739	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
26.513	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
26.395	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
26.155	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
26.096	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
25.838	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
25.786	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
25.372	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
24.740	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
24.200	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
24.105	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
24.097	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
23.706	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
23.695	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
23.643	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
23.606	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
23.476	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
23.455	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
23.238	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
23.177	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
23.108	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
22.984	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
22.749	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
22.742	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
22.106	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
22.080	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
22.008	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
21.721	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
21.501	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
21.430	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
21.005	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
20.849	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
20.535	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
20.508	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.397	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
20.197	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
20.049	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.864	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
19.757	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
19.437	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
19.203	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
19.088	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
18.882	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
18.557	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
18.144	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.980	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.854	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
17.683	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
17.566	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
17.549	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
17.427	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
17.345	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
17.021	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
16.723	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
16.670	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
16.613	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
16.598	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
16.571	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.569	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
16.524	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
16.380	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
16.332	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
16.306	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
16.300	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.272	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
16.048	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
15.788	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
15.644	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
15.596	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
15.568	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
15.529	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
15.487	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
14.969	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
14.948	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
14.759	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
14.612	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
14.403	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
14.315	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
14.106	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
13.891	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
13.755	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.600	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
13.447	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
13.440	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
13.386	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
13.290	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
13.212	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
13.177	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
13.125	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
12.831	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.821	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
12.540	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
12.511	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
12.233	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
11.927	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
11.822	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
11.811	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
11.736	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
11.671	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
11.663	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
11.594	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
11.572	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
11.359	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
11.317	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
11.255	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
11.175	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
11.002	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.760	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
10.692	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
10.658	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
10.433	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
10.327	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
10.180	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.168	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
10.072	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.023	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
9.995	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
9.758	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.736	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.297	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
9.179	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.169	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
9.096	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
9.004	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
8.922	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
8.898	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
8.888	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.815	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.764	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
8.672	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
8.655	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
8.584	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
8.568	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
8.544	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
8.524	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
8.494	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
8.477	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
8.462	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
8.295	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
8.191	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
8.188	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
8.131	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
8.126	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
8.098	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
8.014	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
7.852	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
7.756	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
7.746	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.739	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.591	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
7.589	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
7.587	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.546	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
7.541	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
7.523	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.307	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
7.264	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
7.242	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.181	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
6.997	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
6.984	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
6.911	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
6.906	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
6.847	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.826	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
6.700	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.656	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.647	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
6.633	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
6.501	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
6.501	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.488	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
6.464	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
6.462	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
6.295	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
6.281	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
6.267	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
6.258	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.240	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
6.198	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
6.193	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
6.116	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
6.081	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
5.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
5.932	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
5.907	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
5.891	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
5.861	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
5.782	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.723	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
5.718	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
5.687	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
5.668	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.646	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
5.626	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.586	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.543	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
5.520	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.480	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
5.467	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
5.404	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
5.272	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
5.255	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
5.191	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.187	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.112	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
5.106	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
5.098	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
5.067	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.972	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.928	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
4.871	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
4.731	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
4.699	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.692	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
4.690	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.645	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
4.484	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
4.385	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.356	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
4.328	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
4.303	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
4.290	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.262	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.205	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.194	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
4.156	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
4.076	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
4.066	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
4.026	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
4.004	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.993	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
3.972	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
3.940	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
3.881	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
3.869	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
3.861	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
3.758	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
3.717	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
3.683	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
3.599	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
3.444	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
3.390	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
3.363	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
3.269	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.254	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
3.201	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
3.128	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.102	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
3.011	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
2.976	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
2.951	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
2.847	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
2.838	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
2.837	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
2.831	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
2.827	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
2.813	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
2.810	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
2.808	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
2.772	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
2.765	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
2.552	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
2.346	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
2.219	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
2.207	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
2.199	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
2.182	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
2.154	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
2.102	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
2.097	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.941	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
1.868	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
1.842	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
1.820	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.802	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.762	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
1.734	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
1.727	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.693	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.568	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
1.517	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.487	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
1.469	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
1.465	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
1.463	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
1.404	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
1.395	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
1.348	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.286	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
1.285	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
1.215	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.205	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.179	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
1.113	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
1.029	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
0.997	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.881	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.869	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
0.833	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.830	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.797	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.796	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
0.775	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.749	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.673	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
0.655	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
0.616	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.602	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
0.585	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
0.535	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.524	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
0.518	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
0.512	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
0.468	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
0.456	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.453	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
0.445	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
0.419	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
0.398	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.387	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
0.339	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.324	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.324	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
0.318	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.316	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.311	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.288	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.272	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.269	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.256	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.249	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
0.243	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
0.243	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
0.224	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.210	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.206	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.202	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
0.174	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.149	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
0.128	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
0.125	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
0.121	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.115	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
0.101	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
0.065	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.057	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.057	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.052	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
0.048	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
0.037	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
0.026	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
0.025	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.024	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.021	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
0.020	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
0.019	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
0.018	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.008	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.007	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
-0.024	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
-0.035	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
-0.044	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.064	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
-0.077	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-0.084	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
-0.092	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.099	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.100	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.101	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.109	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.115	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.117	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
-0.118	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
-0.122	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.123	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.125	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.133	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
-0.136	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.275	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
-0.368	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-0.376	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
-0.685	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
-0.755	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
-0.764	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
-0.771	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
-0.773	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
-0.786	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
-0.885	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-0.979	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-1.029	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.049	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
-1.093	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
-1.222	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
-1.257	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-1.385	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
-1.386	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
-1.426	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
-1.434	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-1.471	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
-1.726	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-1.798	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-1.866	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
-1.893	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
-1.938	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
-1.971	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
-2.071	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
-2.131	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-2.177	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
-2.285	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
-2.404	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-2.539	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
-2.550	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
-2.732	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
-2.764	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-2.930	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-2.997	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-3.215	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
-3.306	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
-3.558	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
-3.576	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
-3.670	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
-4.100	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.287	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
-4.307	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-4.661	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-4.754	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-4.791	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-5.067	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
-5.179	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
-5.369	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
-5.610	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-5.661	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-5.885	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
-5.956	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
-6.065	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-6.158	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-6.266	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-7.124	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-7.151	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-7.220	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-7.241	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
-7.307	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-7.382	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-7.388	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-7.505	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.620	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
-7.623	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
-7.681	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-7.800	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-7.851	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
-7.864	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-8.713	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-8.852	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
-8.935	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-9.288	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
-10.046	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
-10.103	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
-11.498	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-11.665	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-12.320	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.522	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.705	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
-14.551	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-15.074	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-15.262	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
-16.385	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-16.808	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
-18.442	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
-23.283	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
-26.140	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-27.312	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.302	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-37.729	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-39.608	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
-40.535	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.042	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-62.206	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-90.407	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-99.360	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary