datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

19.6k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.083	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
136.254	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
135.910	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
135.249	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Continuous
133.673	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
126.325	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
121.444	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
114.637	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
111.597	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
105.875	What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?	Continuous
102.881	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
101.341	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
101.295	What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election?	Continuous
98.474	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
98.035	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
97.898	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
97.759	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
97.471	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
96.152	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
95.968	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
95.931	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
95.786	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.716	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
95.606	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
94.600	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.447	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
94.092	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
93.560	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
92.810	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
92.434	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.399	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.290	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
91.335	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
91.297	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
90.995	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
90.796	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
90.715	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
90.694	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
90.567	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
90.481	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
90.192	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
89.745	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
89.745	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
89.436	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
89.188	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.006	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
88.475	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
87.727	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected)	Continuous
87.712	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
87.150	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.064	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
86.729	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
86.344	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
86.006	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
85.898	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.728	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
85.603	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
85.535	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
85.045	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
84.945	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
84.709	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
84.399	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
84.327	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
82.957	In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot?	Continuous
82.728	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
82.211	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
81.567	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
81.489	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
81.322	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
81.320	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
81.316	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
81.230	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.856	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
80.759	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
80.615	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
80.597	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
80.423	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
80.093	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
80.087	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
79.523	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
79.001	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
78.980	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
78.792	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.779	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
78.107	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.035	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
77.783	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
77.633	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
77.480	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
77.331	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
77.074	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
77.035	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.969	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
76.912	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
76.832	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
76.630	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
76.571	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
76.510	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
76.322	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
76.157	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
75.836	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
75.577	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
75.416	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
75.323	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
75.049	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
74.947	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
74.933	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
74.764	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
74.644	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
74.048	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
73.542	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.542	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
73.400	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
73.204	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
73.145	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
73.083	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
73.073	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
72.959	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
72.617	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
72.582	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
72.458	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
71.631	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
71.027	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.901	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
70.808	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
70.657	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.324	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
70.167	What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?	Continuous
69.669	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
69.619	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
69.243	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
69.145	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.992	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
68.647	How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024?	Continuous
68.564	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
68.415	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
68.202	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
68.131	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
67.313	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France)	Binary
66.963	What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.790	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
66.639	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
66.529	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
66.518	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
66.453	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
66.294	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
65.834	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
65.666	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
65.633	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
65.441	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
65.081	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
64.614	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
64.563	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
63.810	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
63.297	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
63.244	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
63.146	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
63.145	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
62.997	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
62.158	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
62.125	What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?	Continuous
62.091	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
61.528	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
61.483	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
61.439	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024)	Continuous
61.275	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
61.042	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
60.825	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
60.737	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
60.446	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
60.014	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
59.630	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.520	[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?	Binary
57.351	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia)	Continuous
56.932	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
56.788	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
56.772	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
56.419	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
56.397	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
56.037	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
55.891	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
55.823	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
55.571	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin)	Continuous
55.457	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris)	Continuous
55.041	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.746	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States)	Continuous
54.474	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.450	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
54.282	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
54.212	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
53.992	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
53.408	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
53.390	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
52.432	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
52.327	Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024?	Multiple Choice
52.217	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
52.109	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
51.914	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
51.868	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
51.210	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
51.208	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
50.534	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
50.426	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
50.192	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina)	Continuous
49.521	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
48.967	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
48.584	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
48.394	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
48.353	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
48.338	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
47.742	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota)	Continuous
46.711	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad?	Multiple Choice
46.504	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
45.854	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
45.832	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024)	Continuous
45.747	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada)	Continuous
45.591	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
45.364	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
44.929	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
44.883	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
44.646	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio)	Continuous
44.177	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire)	Continuous
43.705	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware)	Continuous
43.643	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
43.263	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
43.128	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
42.960	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
42.958	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
42.846	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
42.834	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
42.584	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.559	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado)	Continuous
42.419	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
42.293	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
42.095	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
41.889	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia)	Continuous
41.885	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024)	Continuous
41.867	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
41.795	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
41.753	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
41.696	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
41.304	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
41.293	How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024?	Continuous
40.786	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan)	Continuous
40.578	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
40.227	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
39.239	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
38.844	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
38.556	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
38.376	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas)	Binary
38.374	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
38.160	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico)	Continuous
37.686	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
37.611	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
37.478	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
37.247	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
37.199	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
37.154	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
36.767	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide))	Continuous
36.525	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
36.525	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
36.216	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
35.694	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
35.305	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
35.304	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
35.205	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
34.454	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
34.388	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
34.123	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
33.990	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I))	Binary
33.558	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
33.413	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois)	Continuous
33.294	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024)	Continuous
33.292	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
33.256	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
33.035	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
32.967	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
32.735	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
32.168	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024)	Continuous
31.909	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
31.368	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state))	Continuous
31.356	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
31.337	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district)	Continuous
31.320	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
31.077	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
30.998	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
30.839	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon)	Continuous
30.740	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa)	Continuous
30.445	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
30.436	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
29.772	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
29.749	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
29.590	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
28.889	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
28.020	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
27.910	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
27.496	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
26.842	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
26.767	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
26.644	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
26.545	What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024)	Continuous
26.536	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
25.751	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?	Binary
25.349	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
25.080	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
25.080	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
24.639	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024)	Binary
24.541	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2)	Binary
24.530	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona)	Continuous
24.486	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
24.444	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.359	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
24.329	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Dec. 29, '24)	Continuous
24.241	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
23.469	When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live?	Continuous
23.444	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24)	Continuous
23.430	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
23.274	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
22.628	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
22.628	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska)	Continuous
22.476	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
22.358	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York)	Continuous
22.028	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
21.896	How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior?	Continuous
21.528	What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
21.164	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
21.050	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
20.905	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
20.553	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
20.470	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
20.454	What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024)	Continuous
18.739	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
18.258	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
18.256	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.220	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
18.215	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
17.569	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
17.096	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024)	Continuous
16.890	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
16.490	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
16.435	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024)	Continuous
16.414	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
15.950	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
15.906	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
15.587	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
14.892	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024)	Continuous
13.663	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
13.282	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
13.238	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024)	Continuous
13.111	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
12.426	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
11.800	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
11.316	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.100	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
11.004	Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament?	Multiple Choice
10.390	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
10.284	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?	Binary
10.145	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
8.888	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
8.373	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
7.195	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
7.148	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
6.664	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
6.571	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
6.545	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
6.495	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
6.188	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
5.994	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas)	Continuous
5.973	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
5.175	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey)	Continuous
4.693	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (July 2024)	Continuous
3.562	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
3.504	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.733	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
2.161	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.152	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
0.871	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
0.347	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
-	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.098	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-1.176	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-1.393	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-1.515	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-1.546	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
-3.106	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-3.132	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-3.164	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-3.228	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.622	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-4.001	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-4.814	Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?	Binary
-5.464	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-5.962	When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs?	Multiple Choice
-6.003	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
-6.909	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-7.216	US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)	Continuous
-9.407	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-10.320	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-11.215	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-11.554	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-11.639	What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
-12.404	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
-12.650	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-12.692	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-13.213	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
-13.221	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-14.346	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-15.155	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-15.471	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
-15.511	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-15.836	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-16.115	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
-16.214	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-16.456	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-16.535	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-18.099	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida)	Continuous
-20.119	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-21.691	On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024)	Continuous
-22.583	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-23.401	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-23.627	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
-23.696	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-24.194	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-25.516	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-27.617	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-28.106	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-28.512	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
-28.917	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-29.212	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-30.599	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024)	Continuous
-31.872	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-32.069	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-34.592	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia)	Binary
-35.703	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-36.053	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-37.150	EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)	Continuous
-37.591	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India)	Binary
-43.807	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-44.503	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States)	Binary
-48.410	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-54.113	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?	Binary
-57.159	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
-57.854	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
-59.366	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-60.063	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-60.336	Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community?	Continuous
-63.228	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany)	Binary
-66.070	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-71.127	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-71.291	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-71.680	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-75.757	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-78.728	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-85.686	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
-88.894	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-91.131	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-91.547	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-91.567	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-96.686	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-108.523	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan)	Binary
-110.938	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-122.051	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-138.359	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary