uganda

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2563	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
125.691	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
92.610	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
90.232	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
80.205	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
77.312	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
74.362	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
72.554	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
70.080	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
67.058	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
65.526	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
63.660	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
62.443	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
58.894	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
57.044	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
56.583	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
54.090	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
52.860	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
50.495	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
49.082	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
49.078	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
47.257	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
42.767	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
42.638	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
41.319	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
38.640	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
34.707	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
34.308	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
33.401	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
31.078	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
29.787	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
27.878	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
27.685	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
27.644	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
25.757	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
25.649	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
24.129	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
23.873	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
23.449	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
22.741	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
22.176	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
19.568	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
19.318	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
19.137	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
18.975	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
18.484	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
18.480	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
17.594	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
16.840	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
16.118	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
16.006	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
15.087	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
14.937	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
13.849	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
13.722	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
13.486	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
13.369	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
13.182	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
13.067	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
12.697	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
12.403	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
11.840	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
11.436	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
10.837	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
10.575	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
10.439	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
10.429	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
10.228	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
9.486	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
9.392	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
9.373	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
9.107	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
9.068	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
8.875	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
8.819	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
8.682	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
8.513	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
8.491	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
7.669	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
7.608	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
7.492	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
7.485	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
6.865	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
6.790	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
6.778	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
6.699	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
6.298	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
5.891	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
5.794	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
5.779	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
5.662	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
5.614	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
5.517	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
5.456	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
5.331	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
5.131	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
5.087	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
4.456	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
4.356	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
4.230	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
3.983	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.795	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.762	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.737	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
3.686	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
3.679	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.607	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
3.486	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
3.172	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.159	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
3.111	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
3.027	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
2.866	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
2.583	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
2.518	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
2.415	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.264	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
2.262	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
2.250	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
2.237	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
2.127	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.771	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
1.676	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
1.639	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
1.601	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
1.548	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
1.415	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
1.351	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.350	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
1.296	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
1.255	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.223	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
1.209	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
1.106	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
1.098	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
1.054	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
1.020	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.018	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
0.981	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.980	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
0.841	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
0.767	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
0.742	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
0.714	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
0.701	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
0.643	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
0.605	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
0.570	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
0.509	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
0.460	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
0.459	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
0.351	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
0.301	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
0.258	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.169	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
0.101	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
0.093	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
0.092	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
0.085	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
0.051	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
0.046	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
0.017	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.013	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-0.057	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.193	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-0.427	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-0.621	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-0.643	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-1.417	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.983	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-5.638	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-12.634	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-19.242	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-21.228	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-77.634	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous