benshindel

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

3470	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
140.734	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
125.462	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
116.626	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
116.244	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
112.831	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
111.731	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
104.859	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
95.619	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
93.261	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
92.952	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
90.044	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
89.561	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
85.694	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
85.574	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
83.264	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
83.171	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
81.399	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
77.924	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
77.202	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
75.949	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
75.021	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
74.188	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
72.546	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
70.938	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
66.816	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
66.076	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
65.210	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
64.398	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
64.365	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
62.842	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
60.395	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
59.213	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
59.139	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
58.705	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
56.625	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
56.359	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
55.679	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
55.607	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
55.594	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
54.316	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
52.876	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
51.887	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
50.008	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
48.820	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.152	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
43.358	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
41.240	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
39.461	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
39.314	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
38.653	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
37.851	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.350	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
35.568	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
34.590	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
33.588	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
32.734	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
31.769	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
27.563	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
27.315	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
27.280	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
27.196	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.036	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
24.624	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
24.374	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
22.770	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
22.049	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
20.680	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
17.043	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
16.539	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.474	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
14.935	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
13.918	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
12.925	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
11.192	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
10.952	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
10.094	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
9.185	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.771	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
8.340	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
8.095	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
7.085	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
7.052	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
5.960	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.619	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
4.513	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.767	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
2.630	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.631	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
0.528	Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.451	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
-0.120	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-0.232	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-0.511	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-1.334	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-3.575	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
-4.256	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-6.518	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-7.046	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-8.286	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-10.037	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-10.609	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-11.262	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-12.685	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-15.113	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-15.379	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-17.656	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-19.392	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-26.306	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-29.221	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-37.529	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-81.644	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-103.020	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-103.524	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-342.547	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary