93.909 | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
88.156 | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
81.632 | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
79.504 | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
79.385 | Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
78.981 | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
76.319 | Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025? | Binary |
74.876 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025? | Binary |
72.750 | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
71.364 | Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025? | Binary |
70.934 | Which group will win the most seats in the 2025 Czech parliamentary election? | Multiple Choice |
69.376 | Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025? | Binary |
69.029 | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
68.102 | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
64.466 | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
60.271 | Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? | Binary |
58.387 | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
57.954 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
57.749 | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
57.617 | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
55.531 | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
54.529 | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
52.393 | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
52.234 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad) | Binary |
51.233 | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
51.221 | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
51.186 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka) | Binary |
50.779 | Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Binary |
50.553 | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
49.529 | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
49.289 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
48.874 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
48.857 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
48.430 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
46.033 | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
46.010 | Where will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be on October 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
44.000 | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
41.946 | Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September? | Binary |
40.190 | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
39.848 | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
39.719 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
39.703 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
38.700 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
38.151 | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
36.964 | Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
36.650 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
35.511 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk) | Binary |
35.168 | Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025? | Binary |
34.345 | How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in September 2025? | Continuous |
33.980 | Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023? | Binary |
33.460 | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
33.022 | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
32.994 | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
32.949 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
29.821 | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
29.436 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
28.645 | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
26.586 | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
26.458 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR) | Binary |
26.456 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES) | Binary |
26.369 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
25.743 | How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025? | Continuous |
22.443 | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
22.416 | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
19.610 | Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
16.617 | How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q3 2025? | Continuous |
13.970 | How many people will be added to the Viasna Belarusian political prisoners tracker in September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
11.804 | How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
11.568 | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
11.085 | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
10.271 | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
10.199 | What percentage of games will end in a decisive result in the open section of the 2025 FIDE Grande Swiss ? | Continuous |
9.798 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.276 | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
8.181 | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
8.178 | What will the winning time be in the Women's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships? | Continuous |
6.588 | How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025? | Continuous |
5.642 | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
4.588 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2025 North Rhine-Westphalia local elections? | Continuous |
4.558 | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
4.294 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election? | Multiple Choice |
3.452 | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
3.158 | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
2.953 | What will the winning time be in the Men's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships? | Continuous |
2.262 | Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026? | Binary |
2.248 | Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025? | Binary |
1.765 | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
1.439 | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
1.321 | What percentage of the Project 2025 Tracker will be complete on October 1, 2025? | Continuous |
1.049 | Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025? | Binary |
0.721 | Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)? | Multiple Choice |
0.338 | Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season? | Binary |
0.093 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.056 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.055 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.053 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.048 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.039 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
0.038 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
-0.070 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
-0.228 | Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.469 | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
-0.620 | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
-0.737 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
-1.342 | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-2.481 | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
-3.884 | How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend? | Continuous |
-4.174 | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
-4.896 | Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025? | Binary |
-5.606 | Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025? | Binary |
-6.484 | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
-7.222 | Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025? | Binary |
-8.459 | Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025? | Binary |
-10.759 | Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting? | Multiple Choice |
-11.277 | Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025? | Binary |
-12.985 | Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025? | Binary |
-14.592 | How many vehicle deliveries will Rivian report for Q3 2025? | Continuous |
-14.750 | Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
-14.969 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-18.349 | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
-19.693 | Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
-20.768 | How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-24.757 | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
-25.384 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
-25.635 | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
-30.780 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
-31.316 | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
-33.685 | Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025? | Binary |
-35.311 | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
-36.795 | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
-37.702 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
-43.617 | Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025? | Binary |
-44.245 | Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
-45.899 | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
-47.067 | Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025? | Binary |
-53.235 | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-61.761 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
-67.571 | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
-71.803 | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-79.449 | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
-87.136 | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
-89.509 | What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Continuous |
-94.275 | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
-113.227 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
-132.965 | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |