RyanBeck

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8009	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
168.645	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
140.122	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
137.350	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
129.385	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
123.148	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
122.285	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
121.829	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
117.353	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
113.184	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
113.116	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
105.737	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
105.241	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
103.092	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
102.485	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
101.839	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
99.095	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
97.874	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
97.459	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
96.065	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
95.571	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
95.551	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
95.222	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
94.247	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
93.086	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
92.796	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
92.702	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
92.557	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
90.916	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
86.625	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
86.302	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
85.895	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
85.788	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
85.645	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
84.722	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
84.525	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
84.167	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
84.056	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
83.360	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
83.349	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
83.281	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
82.977	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
82.963	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
82.793	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
82.499	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
82.216	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
81.440	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
80.006	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
79.694	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
79.290	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
78.985	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
77.633	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
77.578	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
77.323	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
77.094	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
77.023	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
75.702	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
75.349	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
75.163	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
75.109	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
74.206	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
73.263	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
73.081	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
72.350	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
72.131	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
71.559	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
70.854	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
70.208	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
70.003	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
69.973	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
69.394	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
67.432	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
66.970	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
65.383	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
65.214	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
63.558	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
63.022	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
62.411	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
62.381	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
61.799	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
61.499	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
60.987	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
60.690	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
60.533	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
59.744	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
57.983	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
55.923	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
55.703	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
55.595	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
54.909	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
53.875	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
53.850	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
53.828	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
53.752	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
52.751	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
51.171	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
50.053	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
49.406	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
49.184	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
48.841	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
48.787	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
47.538	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
46.908	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
46.351	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
46.087	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
45.909	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
44.172	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
43.228	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
43.133	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
42.821	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
42.761	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
42.478	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
42.401	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
41.953	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
40.779	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
40.646	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
40.260	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
39.326	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
38.237	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
37.674	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
37.426	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
37.109	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
36.613	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
35.142	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
34.931	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
34.591	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
34.109	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
33.521	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
32.843	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
32.333	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
32.292	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
31.868	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
31.808	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
30.868	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
30.844	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
30.596	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
30.198	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
30.047	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
30.019	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
30.016	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
28.989	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.481	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
27.742	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
27.695	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
27.556	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
27.257	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
26.626	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
24.642	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
24.052	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
23.647	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
23.198	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
23.156	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
22.889	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
21.989	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
20.722	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
19.903	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
19.812	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
18.978	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
18.800	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
18.310	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
17.110	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
17.082	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
15.888	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
15.749	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
15.319	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
14.828	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
14.619	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
13.859	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
13.580	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
13.451	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
12.969	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
12.254	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
11.377	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
10.507	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
10.361	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
9.889	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
8.994	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
8.645	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
8.465	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
7.900	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
7.532	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
7.328	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
6.766	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
5.477	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
5.133	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
4.076	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
4.075	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.829	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.199	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
2.857	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
2.585	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
2.513	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
2.165	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
2.015	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
1.912	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
1.738	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
1.370	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
1.173	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.832	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
0.704	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.568	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.461	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
0.433	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
0.281	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.210	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.193	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
0.175	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.173	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.143	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
0.103	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.058	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.104	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-0.137	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-0.149	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-1.114	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-1.812	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-1.820	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.391	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-2.603	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-2.768	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-2.793	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-3.563	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-4.917	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-5.899	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
-7.083	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-7.243	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-8.291	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-10.131	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-10.979	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-13.315	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-13.670	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-15.097	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-16.292	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-16.952	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-18.131	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-30.052	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-37.156	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-49.505	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-49.887	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-60.950	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-65.736	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-68.255	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-72.244	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-75.762	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-77.688	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-91.141	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-94.795	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-99.181	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-103.814	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-105.877	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-116.671	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-129.726	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-133.047	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-149.053	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-165.826	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-190.811	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-194.132	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous