H559

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2609	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.670	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
119.725	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
88.817	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
87.443	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
86.923	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
83.667	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
80.775	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
80.641	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
73.402	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
73.117	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
71.983	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
69.674	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
69.603	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
67.787	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
66.343	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
64.071	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
63.815	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
62.559	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
61.923	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
61.158	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
60.988	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
60.656	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
55.791	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
54.737	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
53.512	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
52.340	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
52.063	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
49.655	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
49.565	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
49.365	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
48.639	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
42.763	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
41.154	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
40.627	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
40.622	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
39.173	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
38.611	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
37.759	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
37.080	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
36.055	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
35.614	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
35.614	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
35.614	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
35.240	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
34.332	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
33.731	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
32.798	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
32.513	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
32.429	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
31.961	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
31.755	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
30.151	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
30.016	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
29.766	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
29.564	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
29.351	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
29.206	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
28.403	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
28.208	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
27.416	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
27.001	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
26.768	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
26.615	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
26.584	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
26.555	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
26.414	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
26.269	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
26.035	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
25.813	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
25.499	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
25.209	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
24.698	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
23.972	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
23.888	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
23.837	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
22.299	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
22.282	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
22.052	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
22.004	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
21.753	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
21.407	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
20.555	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
20.503	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
20.406	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
20.099	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
19.955	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
19.606	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
19.252	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
18.727	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
18.363	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
16.340	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
16.128	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
15.743	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
15.381	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
15.279	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
13.672	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
13.507	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
12.470	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
11.978	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
11.841	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
11.377	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
11.251	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
10.786	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
10.559	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
10.254	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
9.977	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
9.803	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
9.497	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
9.349	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
8.267	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
8.207	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
8.137	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
7.383	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
7.311	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
6.804	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
6.765	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
6.570	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
6.167	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
5.982	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
5.949	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
5.764	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
5.746	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
5.029	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
4.560	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
4.538	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
4.307	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
4.269	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
4.060	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
3.665	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
3.435	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
2.935	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
2.714	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
2.494	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
2.348	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
2.320	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
2.253	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
1.990	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.678	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
1.593	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
1.308	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
0.922	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.765	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
0.763	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
0.735	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
0.539	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.502	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
0.462	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
0.391	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
0.367	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
0.232	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
0.103	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
0.085	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
0.032	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
0.029	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.010	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-0.062	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-0.084	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-1.074	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-1.125	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-5.738	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-7.478	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-7.853	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-9.406	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
-9.815	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-10.033	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-10.353	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-16.217	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-18.190	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-20.162	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-20.204	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-34.127	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-37.140	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-47.079	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-48.648	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-88.080	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-94.201	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-114.720	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-128.413	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-138.261	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-162.665	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-180.713	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-187.217	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-202.841	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous