evergreenemily

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2079	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.067	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
91.011	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
90.037	[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?	Continuous
85.734	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
80.777	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
80.455	Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029? (2026)	Binary
78.202	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
77.754	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
76.430	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
75.978	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
75.394	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
73.331	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
71.481	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
70.912	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
69.072	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
69.007	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
67.456	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
67.434	Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?	Binary
66.578	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
65.205	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
62.432	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
61.893	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
60.085	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
59.617	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
58.944	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Nepali House of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
58.944	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
58.854	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
57.441	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
57.400	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
56.989	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
56.537	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
54.363	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
54.028	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
50.451	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
49.929	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
49.147	Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?	Binary
48.971	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
48.916	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
47.345	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before April 1, 2026?	Binary
47.108	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
46.288	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
45.563	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
44.759	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
44.434	Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?	Binary
44.291	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
44.123	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
44.027	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
43.345	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
42.517	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
42.472	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
41.840	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
40.638	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
40.194	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
40.094	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
39.281	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
36.122	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
35.885	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
35.846	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
34.788	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
34.628	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
34.379	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
33.623	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
33.594	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on March 14, 2026?	Continuous
33.570	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
33.207	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before June 1, 2026?	Binary
33.201	How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?	Multiple Choice
33.144	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
31.318	Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Binary
30.774	What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?	Continuous
30.415	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
29.729	Will a bot be #1 in the Metaculus 2026 Baseline Leaderboard on the Ides of March 2026?	Binary
29.383	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
28.336	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
28.064	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
27.924	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
26.402	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
25.833	What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q1 2026?	Continuous
24.876	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
24.858	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
24.768	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
24.481	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 30–Apr 5, 2026)	Continuous
23.744	How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
23.519	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
20.588	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
20.182	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
19.369	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
17.596	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
17.415	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
17.007	How concerned will the EU be in March 2026?	Continuous
14.095	Who will win the 2026 Texas Democratic primary for US Senate?	Multiple Choice
13.558	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
9.865	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
9.524	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
9.350	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
9.159	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 23–29, 2026)	Continuous
8.843	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
8.826	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
8.528	What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?	Multiple Choice
8.289	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
8.223	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
7.951	Which country will be ranked the least peaceful in the Global Peace Index 2026?	Multiple Choice
6.436	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
5.458	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
5.064	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
3.272	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
2.701	Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?	Multiple Choice
2.630	Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?	Binary
2.446	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
1.716	Will Iran participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
0.769	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 16–22, 2026)	Continuous
0.366	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
0.268	Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?	Binary
-	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-	Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?	Binary
-	[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?	Binary
-3.333	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
-4.040	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?	Binary
-5.350	Will the United States report any locally acquired New World screwworm infestation (in a human or an animal) before 2027?	Binary
-5.678	Will 12 or more oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before May 1, 2026?	Binary
-5.744	Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?	Binary
-6.752	Before August 2026, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum?	Binary
-7.041	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026?	Binary
-7.983	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
-8.225	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
-8.564	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-9.061	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
-13.871	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
-14.257	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
-14.321	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-15.891	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
-17.836	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
-26.755	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
-30.170	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period March 20-26, 2026?	Continuous
-32.599	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before May 2026?	Binary
-35.574	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-35.832	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
-37.845	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-38.691	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-45.742	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-48.638	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-49.465	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-49.491	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
-50.443	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-65.479	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-67.334	Who will win the 2026 Republican primary for the Texas 2nd Congressional District (where Dan Crenshaw is the incumbent)?	Multiple Choice
-71.395	Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?	Binary
-74.451	Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-81.451	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-100.343	Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?	Multiple Choice
-131.015	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-152.385	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-213.577	Which party will win the second highest number of seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Multiple Choice
-264.148	Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?	Binary
-308.304	Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary