Henryb

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

2144	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.608	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
98.260	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
97.789	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
96.168	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
95.670	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
94.085	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
88.989	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
84.612	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
80.996	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
79.703	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
79.142	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
77.290	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
75.081	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
74.792	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
74.412	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
72.891	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
72.790	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
71.016	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
70.903	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
69.020	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
66.585	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
66.431	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
65.725	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
59.937	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
56.883	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
56.728	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
56.237	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
56.136	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
54.641	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
53.228	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.898	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
49.300	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.155	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
47.270	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
44.744	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
43.516	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
43.100	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.436	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
41.457	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
40.604	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
38.529	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
38.504	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
35.877	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
35.415	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
34.365	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
33.465	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
33.316	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
32.525	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
31.698	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
30.394	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
29.706	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
29.683	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
28.245	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
27.966	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
27.612	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
27.510	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
26.605	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
26.508	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
26.431	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.265	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
20.781	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
20.689	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
20.040	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
18.712	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
18.515	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
18.179	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 4, 2025)	Continuous
17.982	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
17.587	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
17.197	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
16.637	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
16.063	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
15.449	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
15.210	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
14.998	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
14.664	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
14.440	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
13.520	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
11.162	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
10.634	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
10.609	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
10.504	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
9.923	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
8.464	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
8.290	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
7.577	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
7.470	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.364	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
5.687	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
4.515	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
3.913	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
3.192	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
2.204	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
1.669	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
1.559	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
1.068	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
0.223	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-1.104	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-3.693	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-5.113	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-5.694	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-6.849	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-7.124	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-8.778	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-9.490	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-10.726	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-11.068	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
-15.836	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-18.757	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-18.968	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-20.292	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-21.846	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-23.553	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-23.890	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-24.859	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-26.749	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-28.568	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-28.755	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-31.738	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-32.388	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-44.218	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-44.889	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-49.176	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-49.359	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-58.657	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-62.963	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-79.218	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-80.323	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-89.374	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
-105.138	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-128.427	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-501.943	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary