RyanBeck

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.31	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
138.265	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
132.234	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
104.650	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
103.489	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
99.262	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
91.203	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
90.014	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
76.380	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
74.745	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
69.187	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
68.256	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
67.740	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
65.138	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
62.179	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
61.911	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
59.147	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
57.901	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
55.855	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
54.365	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
52.471	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
51.390	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
50.997	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
50.415	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
48.245	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
45.992	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
45.163	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
44.992	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.059	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
43.054	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
42.700	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
40.373	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
40.299	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
39.974	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
39.437	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
39.017	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
38.924	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
37.668	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
37.423	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
37.041	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
36.995	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
36.726	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
36.482	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
35.439	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
35.256	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
34.643	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
32.855	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
32.045	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
30.788	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
30.078	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
29.644	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
29.189	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
28.109	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
27.808	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
26.794	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
26.343	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
26.013	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
25.908	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.532	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
25.374	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
23.321	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
23.232	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
23.011	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
22.400	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
22.381	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
22.260	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
22.042	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
21.846	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
21.784	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
21.431	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
21.403	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
18.573	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.866	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
17.516	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
17.187	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
17.156	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
16.481	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
16.330	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
16.114	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
16.008	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
15.816	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
15.761	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
15.681	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
15.530	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
15.336	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
15.069	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
14.894	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
14.435	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
14.411	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
14.409	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
14.146	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
13.739	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
13.634	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
13.590	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
13.244	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
12.745	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
12.601	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
12.587	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
12.461	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
12.426	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
11.977	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
11.836	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
11.531	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
11.165	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
10.967	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
10.864	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
10.796	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
10.292	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
10.280	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
10.272	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.581	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
9.577	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
9.242	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
9.169	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
8.874	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
8.843	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
8.431	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
8.379	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
8.332	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
8.329	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
8.289	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
8.102	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
8.036	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
8.002	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.715	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
7.632	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
7.441	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.419	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
7.410	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
7.253	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
7.181	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
7.061	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
7.050	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
6.826	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
6.592	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
6.492	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
6.404	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
6.272	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
5.954	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
5.885	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.655	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
5.651	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.590	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
5.550	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
5.536	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
5.360	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.357	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
4.675	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
4.384	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
4.329	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
3.830	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.500	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
3.427	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
3.375	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
3.276	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
3.054	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.843	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
2.584	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
2.428	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
2.302	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
2.100	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
1.959	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
1.842	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
1.777	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
1.290	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.089	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
0.896	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
0.771	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.746	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
0.577	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
0.568	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.516	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
0.493	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
0.473	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.411	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
0.375	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
0.369	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
0.366	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
0.273	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.245	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
0.220	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.218	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
0.215	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
0.195	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.194	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.161	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.159	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.122	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
0.111	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
0.069	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.060	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.010	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.000	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-0.002	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.114	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-0.152	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.472	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-1.061	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-1.192	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-1.447	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.454	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.473	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-1.560	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-1.713	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-1.731	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
-1.844	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-2.829	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
-2.856	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-3.017	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-3.050	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-3.378	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-3.770	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-3.812	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
-4.165	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
-4.442	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
-4.732	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-6.513	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-6.564	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-7.481	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
-7.635	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-8.325	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
-8.727	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-9.288	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-10.611	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
-11.499	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
-11.586	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-12.192	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-12.270	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-12.434	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-12.534	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-12.662	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-14.138	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-14.578	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-16.092	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-17.525	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
-17.533	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-20.063	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-20.081	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-21.943	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-22.160	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-23.167	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-23.223	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-23.687	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-24.424	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
-25.195	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-26.754	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-28.129	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-32.540	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-33.533	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-34.990	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-36.491	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-38.195	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-43.871	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-47.903	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-50.458	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-60.002	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-67.846	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous