TheObsoleteMan

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4131	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.031	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
90.279	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
85.113	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
84.992	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
82.968	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
82.872	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
81.257	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
80.893	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
77.490	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
74.859	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
67.409	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
66.660	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
62.887	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
62.773	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
58.025	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
54.299	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
52.424	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
51.933	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
51.226	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
51.163	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
50.171	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
49.354	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
48.671	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
48.655	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
48.300	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
48.215	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
47.430	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
47.323	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
45.812	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
45.179	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
45.036	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
43.451	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
42.917	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
42.855	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
40.659	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
40.507	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
39.991	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
39.385	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
39.321	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
39.257	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
38.898	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
38.740	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
37.778	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
37.371	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
37.223	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
37.157	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
36.931	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
35.363	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
33.749	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
33.511	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
33.484	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
33.135	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
32.715	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
32.691	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
32.335	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
32.125	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
31.946	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
31.742	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
31.630	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
31.559	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
31.470	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
31.100	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
30.872	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
30.438	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
30.329	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
30.219	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
29.945	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
29.269	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
29.247	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
28.904	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
28.231	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
27.801	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
26.966	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
26.838	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
26.763	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
26.361	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
25.847	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
25.728	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
25.318	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
25.263	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
25.240	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
25.143	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
24.996	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
24.812	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
24.739	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
24.593	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
23.997	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
23.568	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
23.459	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
23.238	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
23.146	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
22.791	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
22.785	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
22.436	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
22.183	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
21.618	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
21.362	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
21.337	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
20.847	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
20.138	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
20.107	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
19.754	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
18.635	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
18.632	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
18.255	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
17.578	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
17.497	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
16.855	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
16.398	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
15.663	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
15.172	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
15.048	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
14.741	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
14.540	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
14.501	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
14.387	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
14.365	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
13.922	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
13.722	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
13.389	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
13.024	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
12.865	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
12.617	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
12.419	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
12.316	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
12.117	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
11.957	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
11.741	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
11.632	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
11.006	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
10.895	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
10.586	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
10.297	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
10.271	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
10.259	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
9.401	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
9.221	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
9.037	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
8.644	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
8.545	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
8.517	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
8.271	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
8.040	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
7.980	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
7.976	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
7.421	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
7.328	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
7.257	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
7.040	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
7.037	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
7.022	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
6.290	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
6.238	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
5.586	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
5.462	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
5.343	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
5.228	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
5.035	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
4.956	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
4.904	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
4.867	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
4.630	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
4.480	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
4.398	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
4.375	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
3.932	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
3.893	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
3.464	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
3.300	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
3.067	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
2.937	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
2.744	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
2.741	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
2.727	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
2.708	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
2.588	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
2.573	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
2.375	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
2.107	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
2.085	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.766	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
1.657	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
1.572	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
1.414	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
1.350	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
1.308	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
1.143	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
0.959	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
0.941	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
0.370	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
0.307	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
0.059	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-0.142	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-1.106	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-1.198	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-1.284	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-1.410	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-1.511	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-1.710	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-1.888	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-2.527	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-2.889	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-4.142	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-4.712	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-5.497	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-7.678	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-7.858	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-8.058	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-9.640	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-10.550	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-13.080	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-13.711	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-14.274	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-14.827	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-16.541	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-19.344	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-20.045	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-27.654	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-28.191	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-29.280	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-31.522	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-33.845	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-48.045	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-52.208	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-90.026	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-120.470	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary