IY

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9106	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.854	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.565	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
98.087	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
97.839	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
97.268	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
97.257	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
97.214	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
97.108	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
97.078	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.992	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
96.748	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
96.597	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
96.574	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
96.546	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.461	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
95.520	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
95.422	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
95.201	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
95.013	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
94.864	What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election?	Continuous
94.681	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
94.549	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
94.540	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
94.493	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.012	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
93.079	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
92.530	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
92.113	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
91.819	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
91.401	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
90.857	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
89.501	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
88.524	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
88.269	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
88.148	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
87.140	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
86.530	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
85.064	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
84.957	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
84.565	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.911	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
83.898	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
83.630	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
83.541	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
83.158	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
83.064	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
83.032	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
82.982	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
82.870	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
82.802	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.625	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
82.100	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
82.088	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
81.777	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
81.765	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
81.063	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
80.845	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
80.714	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
80.082	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
79.778	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
79.721	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
79.229	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.050	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
78.756	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
78.722	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
78.220	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
77.930	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
77.176	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.124	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
76.762	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.625	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
76.352	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
75.401	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
73.197	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
72.274	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.348	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
71.257	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
71.169	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
70.571	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.533	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
70.418	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.949	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
69.307	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
69.126	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
69.035	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
68.432	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.150	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
66.483	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
66.471	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
66.423	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.171	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
65.885	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
65.612	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
65.159	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
64.965	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
64.347	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
64.201	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
62.352	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
62.220	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
62.044	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
61.893	EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)	Continuous
61.782	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
61.767	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
61.608	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
61.563	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
61.123	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
60.787	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
60.625	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
60.515	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
59.191	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
58.327	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
57.592	ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Jan 2025)	Binary
56.928	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
56.733	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
56.612	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
56.184	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
55.989	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
55.408	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
54.078	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
53.248	[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?	Binary
52.800	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
52.718	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
52.711	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
52.343	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
51.371	ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Dec 2024)	Binary
50.445	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
50.357	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
49.953	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
49.512	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
49.444	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
48.178	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
47.726	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
47.255	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
45.857	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
45.728	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
45.584	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
45.312	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
45.279	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
45.207	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
45.152	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
44.896	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
44.642	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24)	Continuous
44.437	ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Nov 2024)	Binary
42.876	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
42.778	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
42.628	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
41.554	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
41.460	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
41.417	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
40.880	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
40.361	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
40.186	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
39.750	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
39.714	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
38.768	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
38.713	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
38.487	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
37.523	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
37.115	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
37.051	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
36.855	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
36.752	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24)	Continuous
36.363	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
36.188	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
36.126	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
36.111	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
35.135	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
34.596	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.382	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
33.857	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
33.498	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
32.970	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
32.509	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
32.488	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
32.476	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
32.458	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
32.218	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
31.695	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
31.567	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.251	US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)	Continuous
30.435	(closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
30.268	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
30.227	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
29.163	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
28.584	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
27.910	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
27.003	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
26.916	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24)	Continuous
26.878	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
26.202	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
26.152	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
25.947	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
24.702	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
24.499	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
24.213	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
24.068	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
23.812	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024?	Continuous
23.556	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
22.533	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
21.155	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
20.472	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Apr. 30, '24)	Continuous
20.360	What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024?	Continuous
20.303	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
19.845	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.868	ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Oct 2024)	Binary
18.441	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
17.266	How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Cambodian People's Party)	Continuous
17.076	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
16.053	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
15.718	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.059	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.285	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
14.107	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
13.984	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
11.608	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
11.438	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
11.004	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
10.746	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
10.512	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
9.484	How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (FUNCIPEC)	Continuous
9.091	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
8.134	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.024	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.711	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
7.269	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
6.921	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
5.922	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.425	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
4.044	How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Nation Power Party)	Continuous
3.916	How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Khmer Will Party)	Continuous
3.448	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
3.166	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
3.147	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
2.802	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.993	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
1.982	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
1.271	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
0.557	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
0.484	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.017	Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day (Yes) → Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?	Binary
-1.003	[Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey?	Continuous
-1.090	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-1.097	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-3.295	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.848	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.041	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-5.162	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-5.364	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
-12.150	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-12.250	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-12.551	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
-13.815	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.739	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-15.851	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-16.654	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-18.512	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-19.309	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.591	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-20.152	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-23.598	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-25.298	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.132	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.259	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-29.910	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-30.296	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
-33.763	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-34.664	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-34.868	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-35.199	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-35.816	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-35.889	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-37.283	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-37.298	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-37.939	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-37.987	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-42.961	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
-43.089	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-44.767	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-50.424	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-58.328	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
-61.324	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-62.623	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-63.394	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-64.711	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-65.129	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-80.544	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary
-86.716	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
-90.793	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-93.116	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-104.214	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-110.358	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-135.541	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-142.268	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-147.024	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-155.194	Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?	Binary
-160.498	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-167.607	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
-181.792	Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?	Multiple Choice
-283.306	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-449.063	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary