aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

11.47k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.766	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.207	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.512	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
98.397	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
97.372	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
97.009	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
96.994	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
96.649	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
96.571	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
95.964	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.666	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
95.495	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
95.251	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
95.227	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
95.227	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
94.953	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
94.357	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
94.138	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
94.090	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.738	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
93.620	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.101	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
92.275	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
92.233	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
92.169	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
92.014	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
91.543	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
91.483	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
91.372	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
90.871	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
90.435	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
90.271	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
90.175	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
90.000	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
89.982	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
89.877	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
88.530	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
88.449	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
88.352	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
87.850	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
86.351	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.145	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
86.095	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
85.397	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
85.231	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
84.796	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
84.786	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
84.785	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
84.677	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
84.668	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.617	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
84.280	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
84.280	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
84.280	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
84.280	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
84.229	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
84.212	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
83.596	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
83.429	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
83.429	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
83.429	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
83.428	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
83.042	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.967	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
82.700	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
82.697	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
82.482	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
82.405	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
81.839	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
81.576	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
81.014	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.793	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
80.516	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
79.973	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
79.885	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
79.797	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
78.688	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.333	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
77.838	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
77.838	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
77.759	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
77.513	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
77.097	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
77.001	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
76.872	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
76.829	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
76.700	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
76.337	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.199	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
76.067	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
75.772	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
75.738	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
75.709	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
74.688	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
73.978	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
73.792	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
73.313	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
72.187	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
71.771	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
71.298	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
70.038	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.674	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
69.181	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
68.804	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.658	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
68.401	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
67.811	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
67.802	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.092	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
67.046	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
66.822	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
66.286	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.227	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
65.625	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
64.884	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
64.834	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
64.286	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
63.187	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
63.187	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
62.914	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
62.784	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
61.899	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.899	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
61.261	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
60.565	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
60.046	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
59.934	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
59.849	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
59.673	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
59.462	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
59.042	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
58.609	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
58.417	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
58.228	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
58.196	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
58.056	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
57.308	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
56.332	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
56.048	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
55.186	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
54.045	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
53.753	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
52.067	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
51.942	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
51.805	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
51.660	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
51.055	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
48.773	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
47.013	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
46.773	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
46.604	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
46.597	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
46.440	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
45.965	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
45.845	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
45.816	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
44.630	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
43.438	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
43.216	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
42.655	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
42.317	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
41.567	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
40.216	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
39.174	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
38.907	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
38.421	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
38.047	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
37.553	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
37.545	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
37.545	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
36.047	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
34.473	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
34.420	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
34.306	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
33.720	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
33.510	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
33.076	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
32.663	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.472	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
32.338	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
32.077	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
31.392	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
31.242	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
29.776	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
29.634	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
29.083	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
27.989	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
26.223	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
25.902	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
25.625	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
24.249	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
23.814	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
23.434	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
20.940	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
20.831	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
20.178	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
20.120	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
19.900	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
19.720	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
19.056	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
18.833	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
18.587	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
18.587	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
18.468	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
18.077	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
17.094	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
16.783	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
16.495	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
16.424	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
16.137	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
15.590	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
15.590	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
15.276	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
15.231	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
15.137	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
14.857	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
13.669	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
11.900	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
11.897	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
10.435	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
10.223	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
9.838	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
9.481	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
9.309	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
9.049	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
8.912	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
8.796	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
8.731	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
8.545	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
8.221	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
8.063	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
8.057	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
7.738	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.343	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
6.283	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
6.012	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
5.737	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
5.151	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
4.648	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
4.615	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.666	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.177	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
1.712	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
1.261	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
1.118	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.665	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
0.610	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
0.365	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-0.502	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
-1.871	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.883	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-2.439	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-2.710	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
-2.905	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
-2.907	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
-4.944	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.406	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.382	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-9.933	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-11.452	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-12.631	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-13.032	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-13.036	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-13.165	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-15.029	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-19.150	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
-21.982	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-22.652	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-23.852	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.561	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-30.531	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-30.558	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-37.322	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
-40.821	Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?	Binary
-46.080	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-50.236	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-53.193	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-58.935	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-67.141	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-72.618	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-74.573	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-80.661	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-97.432	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-105.429	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-117.923	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-129.802	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-161.270	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-179.590	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-188.391	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-194.690	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-216.836	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary