Sergio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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13.7k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
165.803	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
159.950	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
151.858	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
143.827	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
142.266	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
128.349	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
118.520	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
107.624	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
106.429	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
104.497	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
104.409	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
98.813	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.750	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
98.559	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
98.355	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
98.209	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
97.749	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
97.637	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
97.335	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
96.771	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
96.263	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
96.125	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
95.665	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
95.079	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
94.803	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
94.262	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
93.506	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
93.248	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.182	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
92.799	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.771	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.552	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
92.417	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
92.054	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
91.798	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
91.623	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
91.425	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
91.288	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
90.329	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
90.185	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
89.958	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.932	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
89.148	FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak?	Continuous
88.400	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
88.242	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
88.142	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
87.609	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected)	Continuous
87.557	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
87.400	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.375	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
87.322	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
87.293	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
86.957	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
86.929	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
86.899	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
86.705	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
86.617	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States)	Continuous
86.014	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
85.728	What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?	Continuous
85.666	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.527	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
85.504	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
84.925	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
84.742	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
84.429	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
84.164	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
83.912	How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024?	Continuous
83.877	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
83.577	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
82.974	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
82.569	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
82.564	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
81.874	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
81.672	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
81.234	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
81.136	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
81.121	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
80.651	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
80.494	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
80.401	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
79.807	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
79.143	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
79.045	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
78.943	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
78.914	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
78.632	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
78.281	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
77.822	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
77.527	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.396	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
76.401	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
76.150	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
76.068	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
76.012	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
75.792	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.528	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
75.467	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
75.440	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
75.358	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
75.355	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
74.852	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
74.830	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.730	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
74.436	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
73.513	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
73.382	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
72.928	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.623	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
72.524	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
72.322	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
71.206	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.043	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
70.820	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
70.041	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
69.915	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
68.676	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
68.415	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.179	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
67.146	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
66.897	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
66.549	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
65.865	EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)	Continuous
64.945	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
64.877	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
64.425	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
64.179	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
64.010	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
63.971	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
62.637	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
62.478	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
62.037	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
61.508	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
61.078	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
60.861	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
60.451	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
60.100	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
59.133	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
59.087	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
58.875	What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?	Continuous
58.776	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
57.274	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
56.894	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
56.624	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
56.438	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
55.312	On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?	Multiple Choice
55.232	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
54.926	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.255	When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?	Continuous
53.780	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
52.582	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
52.411	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
52.363	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
51.505	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
50.865	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
50.556	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
50.129	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
49.655	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
49.530	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
49.266	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
48.876	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
48.755	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
48.562	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
48.480	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
48.191	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
47.812	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
47.703	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
47.325	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
46.817	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
45.833	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (November 23, 2024)	Continuous
45.692	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
45.639	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
45.241	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
44.538	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
43.638	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
43.532	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
43.049	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
40.828	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
39.272	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
39.024	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
38.941	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
38.886	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
38.852	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
37.820	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
37.620	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
37.580	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.649	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
35.598	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
35.503	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
35.261	US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)	Continuous
35.218	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
35.121	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
35.076	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
34.595	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
34.537	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.346	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.188	Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?	Binary
33.841	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
33.658	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
33.353	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
32.903	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
32.829	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
32.401	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
31.272	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
29.779	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
29.714	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
28.110	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
28.072	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
28.051	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
27.640	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
27.586	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
27.485	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
27.233	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
26.780	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
26.495	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
26.199	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
25.815	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
25.443	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
25.359	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
24.247	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
23.991	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
23.208	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
22.372	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
21.588	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
21.445	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
21.273	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
21.219	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
20.661	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
20.269	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
19.937	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
19.700	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
18.672	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
18.277	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
17.669	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
17.401	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
17.166	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
16.830	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
15.831	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
15.309	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
14.860	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
14.138	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
13.978	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
13.896	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
13.597	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.023	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
12.035	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
11.734	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
11.071	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
9.830	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
9.644	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
9.434	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
8.780	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
8.535	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
8.190	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
8.086	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
6.686	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
6.622	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
6.568	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
6.125	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
6.023	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
5.961	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
5.058	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
4.976	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
4.975	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
4.841	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
4.578	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.458	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
4.305	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
4.282	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
3.913	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
2.266	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.039	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.601	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.560	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
0.405	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
0.181	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.046	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.933	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-1.198	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-1.800	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-3.498	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-4.127	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-4.696	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
-7.847	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-9.335	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-11.074	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.314	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-14.311	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-14.540	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-15.087	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-16.909	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-16.943	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-17.296	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-17.689	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-18.032	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-20.780	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-26.417	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-28.842	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-29.745	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-29.833	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-29.972	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-31.449	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
-40.555	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
-42.749	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-48.703	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-55.639	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-55.994	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-58.236	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-59.734	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-62.526	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-67.787	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-68.680	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-70.955	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-79.285	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary
-83.924	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-87.350	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-89.523	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-110.413	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-112.964	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-174.775	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-187.704	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary