TemetNosce

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4052	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
157.522	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
131.096	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
102.955	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
102.111	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
98.648	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
98.334	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
97.971	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
97.294	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
94.030	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
94.015	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
93.390	When will the 2025 Australian Federal election be held?	Continuous
93.289	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
93.263	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
92.987	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
89.938	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
87.378	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
86.371	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
85.770	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
84.563	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Andrew Wilkie (20.8 v ALP in Clark, TAS))	Binary
80.735	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
77.465	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
76.492	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
73.948	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
73.552	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
73.080	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
69.996	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
69.563	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
69.175	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
68.755	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
68.227	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
68.069	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
67.266	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
63.853	What percentage of the total council seats up for election in May, 2025 will each major party win in England? (Labour)	Continuous
61.922	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Helen Haines (8.9 v LIB in Indi, VIC))	Binary
61.922	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zali Steggall (9.4 v LIB in Warringah, NSW))	Binary
61.922	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Allegra Spender (6.8 v LIB in Wentworth, NSW))	Binary
61.404	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
58.803	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
58.342	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.334	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
56.902	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
56.464	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
56.422	What percentage of the total council seats up for election in May, 2025 will each major party win in England? (Reform)	Continuous
56.253	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
56.021	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
55.645	[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?	Binary
54.824	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
54.457	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
53.255	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
52.563	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.412	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
50.715	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
50.520	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
49.221	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
49.008	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
48.138	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
47.679	Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?	Multiple Choice
47.344	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
47.317	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
47.090	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
46.826	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
45.180	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
44.870	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.540	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
43.957	When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister?	Continuous
43.461	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
42.933	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
41.724	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
41.434	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
39.800	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
39.655	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
38.904	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
38.834	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
38.286	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
37.874	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
37.778	Which party will win the seat of Bullwinkel in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?	Multiple Choice
37.416	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Elon Musk)	Binary
36.639	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
36.585	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
36.579	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Dai Le (1.1 v ALP in Fowler, NSW))	Binary
36.578	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Sophie Scamps (3.3 v LIB in Mackellar, NSW))	Binary
35.934	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
34.680	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
33.416	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Matt Murphy)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Johny Srouji)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Mark Liu)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Gregory Bryant)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Steve Mollenkopf)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Kirk Skaugen)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Sanjay Jha)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Stacy Smith)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (David Zinsner)	Binary
32.196	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Michelle Johnston Holthaus)	Binary
31.659	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
30.724	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
30.552	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
29.870	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
29.596	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
28.605	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
27.859	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
26.916	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
26.640	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
26.616	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
26.346	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
26.097	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
25.530	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
25.267	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
25.177	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
25.136	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
23.080	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
22.568	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
22.429	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
21.543	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.044	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 12, 2025)	Continuous
18.134	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
18.010	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (April 26, 2025)	Continuous
17.773	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
16.882	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.825	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
14.594	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
14.014	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (March 1, 2025)	Continuous
13.380	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
13.369	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
13.191	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
12.822	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
12.777	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 1, 2025)	Continuous
12.557	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Kate Chaney (1.3 v LIB in Curtin, WA))	Binary
12.557	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Monique Ryan (2.2 v LIB in Kooyong, VIC))	Binary
11.612	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
11.426	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
11.287	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
11.268	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
10.080	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
9.937	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
9.613	Which party will win the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election?	Multiple Choice
9.019	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
8.545	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
8.074	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
6.055	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
5.911	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
5.642	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
5.348	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
4.674	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
4.661	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
4.507	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
2.388	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
2.171	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
1.959	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
0.828	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.767	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
0.502	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
0.377	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Tom Caulfield)	Binary
-	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
-	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
-0.496	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
-0.916	Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-1.387	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
-2.189	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-2.944	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-3.453	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
-4.905	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
-8.767	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
-9.524	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-13.292	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-13.779	What percentage of the total council seats up for election in May, 2025 will each major party win in England? (Conservatives)	Continuous
-15.651	What percentage of the total council seats up for election in May, 2025 will each major party win in England? (Green)	Continuous
-16.979	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-17.287	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-17.993	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-21.905	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-22.686	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-26.485	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-26.950	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-28.068	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-31.465	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-33.410	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
-34.322	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-44.657	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-47.599	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-49.098	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-50.813	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zoe Daniel (3.3 v LIB in Goldstein, VIC))	Binary
-55.240	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-56.131	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-59.606	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-59.841	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-72.075	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-74.159	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-88.157	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Lip-Bu Tan)	Binary
-91.579	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-95.009	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-99.548	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-103.206	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-103.641	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-116.754	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-130.600	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-144.884	What percentage of the total council seats up for election in May, 2025 will each major party win in England? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-170.340	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-546.686	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary