DaiLothbrook

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2078	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
114.625	What will UK Labour Party's 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
96.675	Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?	Binary
93.572	Will the Government of Albania or Prime Minister Edi Rama resign before September 2026?	Binary
90.423	Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026?	Binary
89.804	Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?	Binary
89.040	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Minions & Monsters)	Continuous
86.464	Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?	Binary
84.639	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?	Binary
84.241	Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?	Binary
82.637	Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?	Binary
82.551	Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?	Binary
82.099	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Toy Story 5)	Continuous
81.118	Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?	Binary
80.177	Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?	Binary
75.086	Will Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain be lifted before August 30, 2026?	Binary
74.681	Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?	Binary
74.019	Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?	Binary
73.878	Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?	Binary
72.925	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
69.694	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
68.568	What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
66.015	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
63.355	Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?	Binary
63.083	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
61.538	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
59.970	How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?	Continuous
58.943	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
58.249	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
57.601	Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from South Carolina?	Multiple Choice
57.489	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?	Multiple Choice
57.046	What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
56.215	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
55.889	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
50.105	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
48.325	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
47.656	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
47.048	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
45.623	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
44.545	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
43.660	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
43.644	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
41.530	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
39.672	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
39.026	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
38.159	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
37.317	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
37.297	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
36.248	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
35.685	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
35.668	What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?	Continuous
35.582	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2026?	Multiple Choice
35.430	What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential elections?	Continuous
34.982	How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?	Continuous
33.262	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
30.434	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
29.633	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
28.548	Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?	Binary
27.810	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
27.362	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
26.467	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
26.410	Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?	Binary
25.933	Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300 through the end of August 2026?	Binary
24.922	What will be the relative rank of the weakest team to advance to the knockout stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Continuous
24.059	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
23.876	Will Uber's takeover of Delivery Hero be approved by BaFin before September 2026?	Binary
23.181	How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?	Continuous
22.760	What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
21.365	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
19.266	How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?	Continuous
17.800	How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
16.643	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
16.404	What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August 26, 2026?	Continuous
15.716	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
15.252	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
14.649	What percentage of the vote will Nigel Farage receive in the Clacton parliamentary by-election in August 2026?	Continuous
13.249	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
12.637	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
11.863	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
11.698	What will be the percentage change in the S&P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?	Continuous
11.690	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
11.053	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
10.895	How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?	Multiple Choice
10.244	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
8.471	What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?	Continuous
8.312	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
8.065	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
8.054	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
7.486	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?	Binary
7.042	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
6.498	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
6.477	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
6.239	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
5.719	What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?	Multiple Choice
5.472	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in its Q2 FY2027 earnings release? (Operating expenses (GAAP))	Continuous
4.463	Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?	Binary
3.880	What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?	Continuous
3.297	Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?	Multiple Choice
3.166	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
2.968	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
2.564	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
2.513	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Aug 24 - Sep 4)	Continuous
2.354	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
2.249	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
2.110	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
1.918	Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
1.063	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
1.023	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
0.891	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
0.834	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
0.786	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
0.777	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
0.765	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
0.734	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
0.688	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
0.392	What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?	Continuous
0.136	Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Binary
-0.260	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
-0.338	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
-0.486	Will 12 or more oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before May 1, 2026?	Binary
-0.764	What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?	Continuous
-1.042	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Jul 27 - Aug 7)	Continuous
-1.187	What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
-1.419	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q3 2026? (Aug 10 - Aug 21)	Continuous
-1.824	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in its Q2 FY2027 earnings release? (Gross margin (GAAP))	Continuous
-2.725	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in its Q2 FY2027 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
-3.980	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 18 - May 29)	Continuous
-4.673	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
-5.110	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
-5.166	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-5.590	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-5.720	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
-6.604	What will be the total number of US cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026?	Continuous
-7.275	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-9.817	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
-10.065	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
-11.644	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
-12.050	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
-12.219	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-12.512	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
-13.159	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
-15.959	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
-16.556	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
-17.659	Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?	Multiple Choice
-17.774	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-17.888	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
-20.293	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
-20.479	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-25.532	Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?	Binary
-27.356	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
-28.888	How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?	Continuous
-29.291	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-33.344	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-33.737	Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?	Binary
-36.221	What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Continuous
-38.050	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
-39.402	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
-41.599	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-42.578	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-45.812	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-46.950	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-51.784	Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?	Binary
-54.954	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
-55.446	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-57.920	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
-64.892	Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?	Binary
-89.070	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
-144.095	Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?	Binary
-150.984	Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-470.733	Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?	Binary