aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.77		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
129.156	97.3%	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
82.378	99.4%	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
81.353	98.7%	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
71.513	88.3%	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
71.343	99.6%	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
66.227	99.0%	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
62.067	92.2%	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
61.174	99.9%	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
59.649	96.5%	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
51.888	85.3%	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
49.590	99.9%	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
48.422	79.5%	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
47.532	90.1%	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
46.928	78.2%	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
45.608	99.7%	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
45.423	99.9%	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
44.569	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
44.473	99.9%	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
44.318	98.4%	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
43.502	95.1%	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
42.770	99.9%	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
41.310	94.0%	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
40.588	91.1%	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
40.110	99.9%	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.964	99.9%	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
37.027	98.7%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.826	95.3%	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
36.607	71.5%	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
35.716	99.9%	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
35.411	97.1%	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
35.008	99.7%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
34.366	93.5%	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
33.743	98.6%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.177	95.4%	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
31.471	91.2%	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
30.291	99.9%	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
30.212	99.1%	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
30.109	81.3%	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
29.931	99.9%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
29.910	63.4%	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
29.436	92.3%	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
28.649	61.8%	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
28.383	99.9%	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
27.136	57.7%	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
26.951	97.4%	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
26.469	96.0%	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
26.419	70.6%	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
26.151	97.4%	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
25.998	83.3%	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
25.892	99.9%	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
25.404	95.4%	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
25.250	97.1%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
24.835	99.8%	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
24.402	99.7%	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
24.082	99.9%	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
23.454	87.0%	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.430	49.4%	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
23.248	70.9%	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
23.032	94.8%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
22.481	99.9%	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
22.094	99.9%	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
22.067	99.9%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
21.557	60.3%	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
21.545	99.9%	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
21.373	98.1%	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
21.220	96.1%	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
20.991	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
20.910	99.8%	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
20.466	95.6%	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
20.439	99.8%	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
20.265	99.9%	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
20.228	99.2%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
19.465	85.7%	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
19.379	99.6%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.240	98.2%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
19.171	97.1%	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
19.166	99.9%	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
18.703	67.9%	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
18.625	97.6%	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
18.544	99.9%	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
17.906	99.1%	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
17.816	99.9%	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
17.402	84.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
17.316	99.9%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
17.215	62.7%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
17.184	96.1%	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
16.870	91.4%	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
16.580	99.7%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.346	98.1%	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
16.164	96.7%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.017	99.9%	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
15.799	93.4%	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
15.481	99.0%	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
15.467	98.8%	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
14.920	98.9%	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.880	99.9%	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
14.850	80.9%	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
14.750	94.1%	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.638	97.4%	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.429	97.1%	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
14.304	58.9%	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
14.276	99.9%	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
13.389	53.4%	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
13.265	98.3%	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
13.170	82.4%	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
13.104	57.8%	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
13.086	97.1%	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
12.764	97.9%	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
12.493	98.4%	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
12.284	98.3%	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
12.148	43.7%	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
11.971	82.1%	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
11.861	99.9%	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
11.772	91.0%	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
11.770	59.9%	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
11.674	99.9%	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
11.628	93.7%	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
11.446	22.6%	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
11.315	99.5%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
10.931	99.9%	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
10.790	97.1%	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.785	98.4%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.658	13.2%	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
10.538	99.8%	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
10.330	99.8%	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
10.208	97.2%	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
10.166	98.8%	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
10.093	96.2%	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
9.997	88.3%	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
9.953	99.5%	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
9.896	94.1%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
9.680	72.2%	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
9.548	98.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
9.542	45.0%	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
9.465	97.8%	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
8.577	21.3%	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
8.560	93.8%	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
8.102	89.4%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
8.082	98.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
7.994	48.7%	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
7.953	42.5%	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
7.525	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
7.325	44.6%	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
7.291	83.3%	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
7.286	90.5%	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.205	29.0%	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
7.102	34.3%	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
7.066	18.9%	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
7.059	35.8%	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
6.883	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
6.873	99.0%	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
6.855	93.5%	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
6.806	97.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
6.799	99.9%	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
6.410	97.0%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
6.345	96.9%	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
6.077	99.7%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.045	95.6%	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
5.834	97.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
5.828	24.6%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
5.733	31.8%	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
5.478	99.5%	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
5.464	99.6%	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
5.370	65.0%	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
5.285	18.9%	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
5.278	99.1%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
5.257	39.7%	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
5.246	37.7%	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
5.026	12.8%	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
4.831	90.9%	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
4.830	26.3%	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
4.743	38.3%	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.478	85.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
4.464	15.6%	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
4.446	12.2%	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
4.410	99.2%	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.406	12.2%	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
4.106	18.9%	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
4.036	76.2%	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
3.852	8.2%	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.845	26.3%	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
3.816	64.1%	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
3.796	97.7%	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
3.755	95.4%	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
3.710	32.4%	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
3.696	91.6%	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.679	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
3.657	29.2%	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
3.652	95.8%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
3.526	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
3.488	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
3.459	95.3%	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
3.423	99.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
3.334	15.7%	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
3.193	98.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
3.154	98.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
3.055	15.5%	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
2.949	97.9%	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
2.785	76.1%	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.780	91.0%	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
2.642	93.7%	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.616	15.6%	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
2.594	98.7%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.319	71.5%	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
2.282	98.1%	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
1.852	92.1%	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
1.757	97.6%	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
1.705	94.1%	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
1.544	98.1%	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
1.424	94.1%	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
1.336	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.321	99.7%	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
1.292	84.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
1.291	92.7%	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
1.202	99.7%	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
0.958	94.2%	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
0.858	10.1%	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.744	88.5%	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
0.735	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
0.724	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.682	15.6%	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
0.665	89.8%	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
0.603	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
0.587	20.3%	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.561	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
0.476	91.6%	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
0.453	92.3%	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
0.428	86.4%	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
0.384	10.2%	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
0.337	49.0%	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
0.303	15.4%	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
0.288	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
0.248	98.8%	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
0.114	25.4%	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
0.084	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.076	98.9%	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
0.071	85.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.068	95.3%	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
0.062	97.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
0.057	21.0%	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
-0.031	98.1%	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
-0.035	98.1%	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
-0.182	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
-0.252	98.7%	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
-0.282	12.9%	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
-0.353	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
-0.372	96.5%	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
-0.395	2.0%	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
-0.403	7.3%	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
-0.421	76.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
-0.430	79.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
-0.457	79.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
-0.981	79.4%	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
-1.159	27.1%	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
-1.199	3.3%	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
-1.205	96.8%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.368	74.9%	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
-1.466	90.1%	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
-1.505	94.6%	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
-1.855	98.8%	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
-1.941	7.7%	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.977	20.5%	Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?	Binary
-2.067	60.1%	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
-2.197	53.5%	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
-2.589	99.3%	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.609	94.9%	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
-2.662	99.9%	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-3.150	99.0%	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
-3.310	99.7%	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.574	99.7%	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-3.585	97.7%	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-4.595	98.8%	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
-4.852	93.8%	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
-7.584	98.9%	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-11.429	45.7%	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-12.104	84.5%	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
-12.569	80.4%	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
-13.169	99.8%	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-13.850	95.4%	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-14.739	99.9%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
-15.090	98.9%	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-17.209	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-20.743	99.3%	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary
-21.896	94.0%	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-22.314	99.7%	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
-23.303	99.2%	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-24.710	99.9%	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-24.958	63.3%	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
-25.437	92.3%	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
-30.289	92.0%	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
-42.920	70.8%	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-46.129	99.9%	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary