galen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.6k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.527	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
96.011	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
95.870	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
95.303	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
95.161	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
95.019	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
95.019	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
94.734	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
94.682	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
94.591	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
94.306	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
94.253	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
91.140	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
90.330	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
90.268	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
89.591	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
89.251	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.005	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
88.717	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
88.689	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
88.044	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
87.458	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
87.365	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
87.204	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
86.724	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
86.611	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
86.234	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
85.744	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.649	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
84.711	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
84.422	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.305	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
84.068	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
84.051	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
83.522	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
83.451	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
83.081	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
83.050	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
82.919	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
82.823	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
82.013	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
81.995	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
81.791	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
81.781	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.654	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
80.730	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
79.076	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
78.899	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
78.719	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.051	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
77.420	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.376	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
77.205	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
76.430	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
76.158	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.664	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
75.490	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
75.276	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
75.114	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.029	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
74.888	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.250	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.792	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
72.340	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.316	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
72.258	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
71.512	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
71.208	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
71.206	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
70.512	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
70.311	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
70.042	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
69.325	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
68.248	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
67.258	Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025)	Binary
66.317	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
65.475	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
65.208	Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?	Binary
64.629	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
64.202	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
63.972	Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025)	Binary
63.872	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
63.827	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
63.534	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
63.421	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
61.988	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
61.788	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
60.945	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
60.889	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
60.631	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.513	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
60.030	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
59.557	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
58.473	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.463	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
58.363	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
58.246	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
58.208	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
58.039	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
57.934	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
57.918	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
57.823	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
57.769	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
57.519	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
57.491	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
57.194	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
56.819	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
56.539	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
55.844	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
55.643	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
55.197	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
55.111	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
54.545	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
54.240	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
54.052	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
53.978	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
53.731	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
53.408	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
53.282	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
53.197	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
53.159	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
53.125	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
52.976	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
52.965	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
52.642	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
52.533	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
52.508	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
52.226	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
51.116	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
51.053	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
50.466	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
50.463	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
50.431	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
49.479	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
49.294	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
49.253	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
49.061	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
48.792	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
48.009	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
47.688	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
47.345	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
47.009	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
46.926	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (August 2024)	Continuous
46.925	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
46.820	2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?	Binary
45.994	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
45.507	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
45.044	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
44.798	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
44.716	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
44.569	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
44.399	What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election?	Continuous
43.667	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
43.084	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
42.844	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
42.661	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
42.112	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2)	Binary
41.254	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
41.086	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
39.291	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024)	Binary
39.194	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
38.894	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
37.933	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
37.338	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
34.822	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
33.953	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
33.833	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
33.631	Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?	Binary
33.336	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
31.510	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
31.459	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
30.942	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
30.301	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
29.980	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
29.800	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
29.243	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
26.636	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
26.439	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
25.493	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
24.531	What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?	Continuous
24.080	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
23.687	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
23.410	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
22.988	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
22.827	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
22.189	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
21.230	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
21.150	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
20.135	In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot?	Continuous
19.351	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (October 2024)	Continuous
19.278	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
19.226	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh)	Binary
18.884	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
18.336	What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024?	Continuous
18.070	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
18.011	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
16.787	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
16.742	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia)	Binary
16.033	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
15.902	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States)	Binary
15.736	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil)	Binary
15.401	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
15.350	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
15.078	What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?	Continuous
14.249	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
14.231	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
14.001	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
13.703	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico)	Binary
13.147	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
12.985	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
12.639	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
12.523	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (September 2024)	Continuous
11.661	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
11.520	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
11.379	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France)	Binary
11.109	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (November 2024)	Continuous
10.333	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
10.078	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
9.792	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
6.830	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia)	Binary
6.626	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
6.558	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.177	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (December 2024)	Continuous
5.885	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
5.653	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
5.419	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
4.857	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
4.480	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
4.300	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
4.072	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
2.533	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
0.136	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-0.001	How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior?	Continuous
-0.339	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.479	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-0.835	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.850	RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-1.831	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India)	Binary
-2.600	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.476	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-4.666	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-5.575	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany)	Binary
-5.981	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-7.878	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.224	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan)	Binary
-11.432	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-12.878	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
-14.805	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-16.226	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
-18.785	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
-22.008	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
-25.692	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-26.201	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-27.157	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-31.123	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-32.395	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
-35.485	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-36.076	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?	Binary
-38.114	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-40.875	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-40.919	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
-49.639	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-59.198	Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year? (2025)	Binary
-62.797	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-73.501	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-76.405	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
-76.785	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-78.250	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
-88.242	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-91.527	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?	Binary
-97.822	Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?	Binary
-130.361	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
-132.442	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary