131.344 | How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025? | Continuous |
119.594 | What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025? | Continuous |
109.202 | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
97.878 | Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada? | Multiple Choice |
97.237 | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
97.002 | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
95.813 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
95.088 | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
94.788 | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
92.469 | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
92.380 | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
91.888 | Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025? | Binary |
89.846 | Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections? | Binary |
89.412 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
88.659 | Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%? | Binary |
86.396 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
85.532 | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
80.810 | Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25? | Binary |
80.755 | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
77.807 | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
75.507 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
75.218 | Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025? | Binary |
74.646 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
74.221 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
74.043 | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
73.641 | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
73.619 | Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? | Binary |
73.127 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
71.582 | What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025? | Continuous |
70.696 | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
69.020 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
68.751 | Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
68.585 | [Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
68.510 | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
68.022 | What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units? | Continuous |
67.525 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025) | Continuous |
66.986 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
64.510 | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
63.305 | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
62.551 | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
61.952 | Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School? | Binary |
60.625 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
59.781 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025? | Continuous |
59.109 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025) | Continuous |
57.536 | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
54.176 | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
54.150 | How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
53.872 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6) | Continuous |
53.629 | How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
53.406 | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
52.828 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025) | Continuous |
51.089 | How many parties will be in the next German parliament? | Multiple Choice |
49.392 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025) | Binary |
48.167 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
48.123 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN) | Continuous |
47.156 | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
45.862 | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
43.078 | What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025? | Continuous |
42.660 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
42.212 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
41.496 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD) | Continuous |
40.078 | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
39.092 | How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week? | Multiple Choice |
38.276 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
38.150 | What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025? | Continuous |
37.958 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League? | Multiple Choice |
36.839 | When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister? | Continuous |
36.836 | Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from? | Multiple Choice |
36.692 | What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025? | Continuous |
35.505 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
35.320 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20) | Continuous |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Matt Murphy) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Mark Liu) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Steve Mollenkopf) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Kirk Skaugen) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Stacy Smith) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (David Zinsner) | Binary |
34.520 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Michelle Johnston Holthaus) | Binary |
33.836 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23) | Continuous |
33.204 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
32.364 | What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
31.884 | Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025? | Binary |
29.161 | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
28.036 | Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025? | Binary |
28.006 | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
27.551 | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
27.511 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World) | Continuous |
27.220 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Johny Srouji) | Binary |
27.090 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30) | Continuous |
27.009 | By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup? | Multiple Choice |
26.613 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Gregory Bryant) | Binary |
26.603 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
24.747 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Sanjay Jha) | Binary |
24.569 | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
24.255 | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
23.046 | Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship? | Multiple Choice |
22.689 | Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off? | Multiple Choice |
21.730 | What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025? | Continuous |
20.697 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025) | Binary |
19.962 | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
19.899 | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
19.613 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13) | Continuous |
18.782 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
18.323 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
17.421 | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
16.108 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
15.401 | Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season? | Binary |
14.874 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
14.073 | What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
13.923 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
13.089 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
13.033 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2) | Binary |
13.033 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
12.457 | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
12.067 | Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025? | Binary |
6.728 | Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League? | Binary |
6.663 | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
5.640 | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
4.557 | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
4.498 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025? | Binary |
4.248 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | Binary |
3.520 | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
3.517 | Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting? | Multiple Choice |
3.318 | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
2.820 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
2.483 | What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025? | Continuous |
2.225 | What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament? | Multiple Choice |
2.012 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Tom Caulfield) | Binary |
1.177 | Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
0.681 | Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025? | Binary |
0.582 | Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025? | Binary |
0.172 | What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025) | Continuous |
-0.156 | Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025? | Binary |
-0.188 | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
-0.260 | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-1.137 | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
-2.067 | Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025? | Binary |
-2.757 | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-2.861 | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
-3.845 | When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility? | Continuous |
-4.141 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | Binary |
-4.853 | What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
-6.230 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey) | Continuous |
-11.746 | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
-12.238 | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
-14.502 | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-15.988 | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-18.763 | What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025? | Continuous |
-21.726 | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
-22.054 | What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
-24.827 | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2) | Continuous |
-24.955 | What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-30.313 | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
-33.782 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
-34.095 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
-36.794 | Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25? | Binary |
-38.389 | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN) | Binary |
-40.312 | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
-41.076 | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
-42.201 | Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place? | Binary |
-45.759 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-52.997 | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-64.184 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-65.299 | Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Lip-Bu Tan) | Binary |
-68.534 | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Binary |
-69.666 | Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025? | Binary |
-112.962 | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13) | Binary |
-141.757 | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-801.982 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |