TemetNosce

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2298	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
102.979	How many MPs will Reform UK have on May 7, 2026?	Continuous
99.361	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
97.723	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
93.559	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
92.400	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
91.181	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
90.516	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-26)	Continuous
87.442	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
84.716	Will Iceland be ranked the most peaceful country in the world during each year of 2026 - 2029? (2026)	Binary
84.555	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
84.426	Will Romuald Wadagni win the Benin presidential election in April 2026?	Binary
84.372	Will a bot be #1 in the Metaculus 2026 Baseline Leaderboard on the Ides of March 2026?	Binary
80.042	Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in his State of the Union address on February 24, 2026?	Binary
79.872	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
79.531	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
77.743	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
76.774	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
75.830	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
75.696	Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Binary
75.269	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
74.108	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
71.398	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
71.205	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
70.118	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Nepali House of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
68.352	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
68.224	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
67.192	Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" population cap referendum?	Binary
66.924	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in April 2026, according to the TSA? (Apr 27–May 3, 2026)	Continuous
66.676	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
65.754	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
64.973	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
64.248	Which country will be ranked the least peaceful in the Global Peace Index 2026?	Multiple Choice
62.040	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
61.500	How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?	Multiple Choice
61.083	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
60.590	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
60.529	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
59.086	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (April 2026)	Continuous
58.966	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
58.902	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
58.085	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
58.008	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
57.984	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on March 14, 2026?	Continuous
56.757	What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
55.936	Which album will win the Best Traditional Country Album Award at the 2026 Grammys?	Multiple Choice
55.890	Who will win the 2026 Texas Democratic primary for US Senate?	Multiple Choice
55.607	Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Binary
54.755	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
53.630	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
53.590	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
53.269	Which NHL team will win the 2026 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
52.958	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
52.697	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
52.263	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
51.930	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
50.784	How many barrels of crude oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on April 30, 2026?	Continuous
50.439	What will Alphabet's Q4 2025 constant-currency revenues be in these global regions? (APAC)	Continuous
49.035	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
48.738	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
48.316	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
48.265	Will Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index report show U.S. private AI investment in 2025 at least 12x China’s?	Binary
47.029	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
46.419	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Microsoft)	Continuous
46.037	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
44.566	What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q1 2026?	Continuous
44.023	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
43.466	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
43.084	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
43.079	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on February 14, 2026?	Continuous
42.401	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in April 2026, according to the TSA? (Apr 20–26, 2026)	Continuous
41.422	Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?	Binary
40.599	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
40.035	Will Iran participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
40.001	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on May 14, 2026?	Continuous
39.897	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
39.445	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
38.255	Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?	Binary
38.063	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
37.716	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Meta)	Continuous
37.632	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
37.453	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period April 3-April 9, 2026?	Continuous
37.334	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
37.102	Will any political party or coalition acquire a supermajority in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections?	Binary
37.077	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
36.774	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
36.369	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
36.316	Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?	Binary
36.212	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
35.551	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
35.448	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
35.239	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
35.209	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
34.293	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
33.743	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
33.604	Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?	Binary
33.417	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
33.153	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
33.108	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
32.944	Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?	Binary
32.818	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
32.716	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
31.975	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
31.555	Where will Wishbone Deluxe debut on the Billboard 200?	Continuous
31.339	Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?	Multiple Choice
31.328	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
31.047	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
30.506	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
30.094	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in April 2026, according to the TSA? (Apr 13–19, 2026)	Continuous
29.844	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
29.247	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on June 14, 2026?	Continuous
29.208	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
28.460	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before April 1, 2026?	Binary
27.789	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
27.216	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
25.982	[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?	Binary
25.788	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
25.594	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
25.503	What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?	Continuous
25.016	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
24.717	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
24.660	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
24.176	What will Alphabet's Q4 2025 constant-currency revenues be in these global regions? (Other Americas)	Continuous
22.916	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
22.567	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
22.169	How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
21.931	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Tesla)	Continuous
21.479	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 2–8, 2026)	Continuous
21.199	How concerned will the EU be in March 2026?	Continuous
20.619	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
19.814	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period March 20-26, 2026?	Continuous
19.534	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (March 2026)	Continuous
18.617	Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?	Multiple Choice
18.342	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
17.790	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
17.647	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in April 2026, according to the TSA? (Apr 6–12, 2026)	Continuous
17.098	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
16.885	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
16.527	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 30–Apr 5, 2026)	Continuous
16.467	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Amazon)	Continuous
16.230	Who will win the 2026 Republican primary for the Texas 2nd Congressional District (where Dan Crenshaw is the incumbent)?	Multiple Choice
16.185	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
15.897	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
15.043	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
14.467	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
14.024	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
12.893	How far will the Duke Blue Devils advance in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
12.445	Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?	Binary
12.248	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
11.794	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
10.617	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
10.544	Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?	Binary
10.096	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
9.450	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
9.428	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
9.154	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
9.074	Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?	Binary
8.622	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 9–15, 2026)	Continuous
8.346	Will Brent crude oil reach $90 a barrel before March 15, 2026?	Binary
7.834	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 23–29, 2026)	Continuous
7.310	Will Brent crude oil reach $100 a barrel before April 1, 2026?	Binary
6.431	What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?	Multiple Choice
6.143	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in March 2026, according to the TSA? (Mar 16–22, 2026)	Continuous
5.739	Will Anthropic overtake OpenAI in revenue in 2026?	Binary
5.194	Will Neymar be called up for Brazil in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
4.984	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
4.927	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
4.691	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
4.593	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February 2026, according to the TSA? (Feb 16, 2026-Feb 22, 2026)	Continuous
3.658	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
2.005	Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?	Binary
0.174	Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?	Binary
0.000	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
0.000	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
-	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?	Binary
-	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "bitcoin" in his State of the Union address on February 24, 2026?	Binary
-	Will 12 or more oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before May 1, 2026?	Binary
-	Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?	Binary
-0.134	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February 2026, according to the TSA? (Feb 23, 2026-Mar 1, 2026)	Continuous
-1.197	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-1.918	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
-1.923	When will Claude Plays Pokemon beat the first Pokémon game? (2026)	Continuous
-2.834	Will OpenAI release GPT-5.5 before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-3.134	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
-3.749	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-4.640	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
-5.434	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-5.992	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
-6.035	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
-7.070	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
-7.321	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-7.622	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
-7.866	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
-8.573	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-9.324	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
-10.554	Before August 2026, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum?	Binary
-10.705	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
-11.024	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
-13.937	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
-15.521	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026?	Binary
-15.617	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
-18.625	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-18.993	What will Alphabet's Q4 2025 constant-currency revenues be in these global regions? (EMEA)	Continuous
-18.997	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-19.631	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
-20.832	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-22.134	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
-23.634	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-25.774	How many Iranian projectiles (drones and missiles) will the UAE engage with in the 7-day period March 27-April 2, 2026?	Continuous
-28.304	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Meta)	Continuous
-32.053	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
-32.556	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Amazon)	Continuous
-33.609	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
-33.609	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
-35.227	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
-42.518	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
-42.628	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
-42.697	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-42.986	Who will win the Achievement in Casting Oscar at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Multiple Choice
-43.968	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-52.685	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February 2026, according to the TSA? (February 9, 2026-February 15, 2026)	Continuous
-53.847	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
-54.957	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-57.246	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
-59.458	Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?	Binary
-62.071	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
-64.945	Will the United States report any locally acquired New World screwworm infestation (in a human or an animal) before 2027?	Binary
-66.130	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
-66.565	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before May 2026?	Binary
-85.825	How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026? (30 April 2026)	Continuous
-95.613	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
-102.315	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-110.277	Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-121.425	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-134.565	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Tesla)	Continuous
-136.130	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-136.366	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
-146.373	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-151.980	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-161.756	How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on June 1, 2026?	Continuous
-174.637	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
-206.301	[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?	Continuous
-222.526	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
-254.615	Which party will win the second highest number of seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Multiple Choice
-276.851	Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-333.739	Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?	Binary
-464.227	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before June 1, 2026?	Binary