forecastooor

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8666	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
124.734	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
119.969	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
99.341	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
99.289	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
99.013	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
97.893	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
97.812	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
97.749	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
97.731	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
97.707	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
97.542	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
97.191	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
97.183	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
97.120	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
96.948	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
96.818	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
96.643	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
96.602	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
96.478	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
96.360	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
96.314	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
96.210	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
96.075	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
96.018	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
95.961	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.895	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.783	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
95.737	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
95.617	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
95.293	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
95.076	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
94.915	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
93.740	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
93.521	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
93.495	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
93.449	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.402	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
93.182	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
92.823	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
92.643	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
91.948	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
91.813	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
91.393	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
91.386	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
91.316	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
91.178	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
90.752	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
90.662	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
90.337	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
89.826	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.290	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
89.024	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
88.989	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
88.722	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
88.708	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
88.011	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.886	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
87.814	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
87.664	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
87.619	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
87.612	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
87.611	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
87.352	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
87.218	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
85.906	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
85.847	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
85.032	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
84.669	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
84.267	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
84.077	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
84.050	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
82.723	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
81.950	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.288	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
79.149	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
78.218	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
76.260	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.521	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
74.678	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
74.523	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
74.480	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
74.237	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
74.199	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
74.078	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
71.697	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
70.851	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
70.110	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
69.690	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
68.849	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
68.537	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
68.225	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
68.213	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
67.343	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
67.004	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
66.657	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
64.347	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
63.941	EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)	Continuous
63.929	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
63.253	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
62.489	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
61.504	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
61.007	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.708	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.653	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
60.620	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
59.872	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
59.691	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
59.313	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
57.844	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
57.230	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
56.281	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.518	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.409	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.998	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
52.746	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
52.111	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
51.104	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
50.414	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
49.378	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
47.967	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
47.394	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
47.386	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
46.936	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
46.492	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
46.025	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
45.929	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
45.868	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
42.862	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
42.633	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
41.627	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
41.401	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
40.388	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
39.784	US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)	Continuous
39.578	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
39.561	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
39.385	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
39.163	FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak?	Continuous
38.443	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
36.806	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
36.485	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
33.757	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
33.367	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
33.308	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
32.781	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
32.402	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
32.020	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
31.995	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
31.331	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.249	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
29.513	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
29.017	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
28.314	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
27.830	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
25.816	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
25.332	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.983	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
24.641	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
24.319	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
23.166	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
21.545	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
21.346	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
20.756	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
20.283	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
19.979	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
18.701	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
17.996	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
17.090	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
16.828	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
16.490	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
14.228	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
14.073	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
13.743	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
13.215	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
12.815	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
12.793	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
12.324	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
10.510	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
9.906	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
9.856	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
9.804	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
9.136	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
8.987	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
7.669	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
7.193	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.315	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
5.704	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
4.826	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
4.814	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
4.589	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
4.022	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
0.712	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.451	Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day (Yes) → Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?	Binary
0.406	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.296	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-0.816	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
-6.753	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-7.633	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-8.757	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
-9.619	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-9.909	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-10.190	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-12.493	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-13.638	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-14.148	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-14.591	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-18.761	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-21.492	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
-24.704	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.227	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-25.452	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-26.741	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.037	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
-30.632	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary
-31.294	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-33.604	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-41.637	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-53.423	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-66.105	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-70.861	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-75.892	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-80.075	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-87.250	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-89.214	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-99.603	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-104.099	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-115.415	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
-148.842	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-164.592	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-165.778	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-207.364	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-237.729	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-244.623	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-257.798	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-267.330	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary