TheChairman

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4911	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
138.424	What will UK Labour Party's 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
100.467	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Toy Story 5)	Continuous
97.550	How much will Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters gross domestically during their opening weekends? (Minions & Monsters)	Continuous
97.317	Will the Government of Albania or Prime Minister Edi Rama resign before September 2026?	Binary
97.270	Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?	Binary
97.225	Will Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain be lifted before August 30, 2026?	Binary
96.074	Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?	Binary
95.662	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
95.490	Which party will win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election?	Multiple Choice
94.892	Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?	Binary
94.564	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
94.085	Will gas prices in the U.S. reach a new all-time high before September 6, 2026?	Binary
93.843	Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?	Binary
93.578	Which party will win the 2026 Montana Senate election?	Multiple Choice
91.985	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Oregon)	Binary
91.985	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Colorado)	Binary
91.985	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Rhode Island)	Binary
91.782	Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?	Binary
91.726	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
91.487	Will there be a nationwide anti-government uprising in Russia between September 20 and November 1, 2026?	Binary
89.955	Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?	Binary
89.911	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
89.441	How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?	Continuous
89.092	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
88.971	Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?	Binary
88.894	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
88.692	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
88.297	Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?	Binary
88.215	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
88.124	Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?	Binary
87.164	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska)	Binary
86.820	What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
86.818	What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
85.886	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
84.990	Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026?	Binary
84.723	Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Multiple Choice
84.250	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
84.065	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
83.871	Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?	Binary
82.900	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Nepali House of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
82.619	Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?	Binary
82.551	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
82.463	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?	Binary
81.910	Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?	Binary
81.053	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Arkansas)	Binary
80.914	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Idaho)	Binary
80.749	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Kentucky)	Binary
80.749	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Louisiana)	Binary
80.466	Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?	Binary
80.001	Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?	Binary
79.442	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
79.107	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
78.764	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?	Binary
78.029	Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?	Binary
77.089	Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from South Carolina?	Multiple Choice
77.010	Will the U.S. government's 30-year treasury bond remain in the ≥5% "danger zone" for the entire month of August 2026?	Binary
75.056	Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Binary
74.575	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
73.897	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?	Multiple Choice
73.450	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
73.243	How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?	Continuous
72.611	Who will be the 2026 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senator from Maine?	Multiple Choice
71.077	Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?	Multiple Choice
69.459	Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Multiple Choice
69.394	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Hawaii)	Binary
69.394	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (New Mexico)	Binary
69.394	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (South Carolina)	Binary
69.057	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Oregon)	Binary
69.037	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
68.789	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Nebraska)	Binary
68.518	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
67.631	Which party will win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election?	Multiple Choice
66.219	Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?	Binary
65.109	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
64.816	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Michigan)	Binary
64.566	Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?	Binary
62.234	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Vermont)	Binary
61.917	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Arizona)	Binary
61.812	Will any U.S. Supreme Court justice announce their retirement before September 1, 2026?	Binary
60.963	How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?	Continuous
59.765	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
58.204	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
57.628	How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?	Continuous
57.543	Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?	Multiple Choice
57.526	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
56.405	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
55.904	Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
55.489	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
54.846	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
53.898	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
53.485	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Florida)	Binary
53.162	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
52.077	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
51.606	Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?	Multiple Choice
50.424	What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential elections?	Continuous
49.944	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
46.456	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
46.272	Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?	Binary
45.719	Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?	Binary
44.762	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2026?	Multiple Choice
44.623	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
43.697	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
43.508	Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?	Binary
43.259	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
43.151	How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?	Multiple Choice
41.138	Will the U.S. Supreme Court further cut back campaign finance limitations in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC before January 1, 2027?	Binary
41.020	Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?	Binary
40.459	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
39.490	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
39.245	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
37.486	What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August 26, 2026?	Continuous
37.379	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
37.274	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
37.238	How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?	Multiple Choice
37.061	Will Missouri's 2026 Amendment 3 pass, repealing the 2024 abortion-rights protections?	Binary
36.774	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
36.259	What will be the relative rank of the weakest team to advance to the knockout stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Continuous
35.794	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Iowa)	Binary
35.448	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
35.127	What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?	Continuous
32.203	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
32.079	Will Donald Trump declare a national emergency related to election integrity before November 3, 2026?	Binary
31.931	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
31.780	What will be the percentage change in the S&P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?	Continuous
31.762	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
31.418	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
30.518	Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?	Multiple Choice
29.539	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
29.050	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
28.152	Who will win the 2026 Texas Democratic primary for US Senate?	Multiple Choice
27.102	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
25.937	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
25.823	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
24.749	What percentage of the vote will Nigel Farage receive in the Clacton parliamentary by-election in August 2026?	Continuous
24.492	What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?	Multiple Choice
24.180	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
23.233	What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?	Continuous
22.855	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
22.387	How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?	Continuous
21.515	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
20.804	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
19.625	Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?	Multiple Choice
19.355	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
18.295	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
17.670	Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
17.094	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Ohio)	Binary
17.003	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
16.924	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
16.708	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Georgia)	Binary
16.255	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
16.081	What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?	Continuous
15.964	What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?	Continuous
15.309	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
15.009	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
14.058	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?	Binary
13.971	Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?	Multiple Choice
13.253	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
11.503	Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?	Binary
11.234	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
8.789	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?	Binary
7.354	Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?	Binary
6.326	What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?	Continuous
5.595	When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?	Continuous
3.826	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
3.432	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?	Multiple Choice
3.326	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
2.924	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Nevada)	Binary
1.664	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
1.316	What rank will the top bot achieve in the Spring 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
1.127	Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?	Binary
0.874	What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Continuous
0.774	What will be the total number of US cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026?	Continuous
0.685	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
-0.030	Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?	Binary
-2.091	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
-2.137	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-2.405	Will any political party or coalition acquire a supermajority in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections?	Binary
-2.971	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
-3.262	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
-3.484	What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?	Continuous
-4.721	Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?	Binary
-5.070	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
-5.307	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-6.255	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
-6.779	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-7.431	How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?	Multiple Choice
-8.264	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
-9.598	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-10.925	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
-12.579	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-15.228	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
-17.085	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
-17.955	What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?	Continuous
-20.008	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
-22.377	What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?	Continuous
-22.959	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-26.712	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026?	Binary
-32.828	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
-33.363	Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?	Binary
-33.706	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
-33.972	How much will "Michael" gross domestically during the film's opening weekend?	Continuous
-40.871	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
-42.549	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
-45.296	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-47.685	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-50.699	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
-52.119	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
-54.223	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-54.350	How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?	Continuous
-56.212	Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?	Binary
-64.469	Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?	Multiple Choice
-65.926	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-69.382	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-74.708	Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?	Binary
-116.816	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-118.559	Which party will win the second highest number of seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Multiple Choice
-149.777	Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-150.754	Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?	Binary
-160.881	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (Kansas)	Binary
-161.589	Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-195.473	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-195.601	What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?	Continuous
-225.050	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states? (Texas)	Binary
-247.439	Who will win the Achievement in Casting Oscar at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Multiple Choice
-267.470	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states? (South Carolina)	Binary
-310.132	Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?	Binary
-315.724	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-321.746	Will Uber's takeover of Delivery Hero be approved by BaFin before September 2026?	Binary
-367.058	Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary