exmateriae

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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36.41		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
132.548	92.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
126.946	91.7%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
125.155	99.1%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
119.147	91.6%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
119.121	98.8%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
118.945	99.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
103.824	99.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
103.410	98.5%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
99.594	92.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
92.861	99.1%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
92.082	95.7%	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
89.427	99.4%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
88.173	96.1%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
87.485	98.1%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
84.348	99.3%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
82.351	99.3%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
80.542	98.3%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
78.995	99.5%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
78.471	99.3%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
77.147	97.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
77.053	98.4%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
76.284	99.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
74.847	99.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
72.952	99.4%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
72.763	96.9%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
72.534	98.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.411	96.9%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
71.998	99.6%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
69.689	98.7%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
67.550	97.5%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
67.261	96.1%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
66.672	99.2%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.720	99.0%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
64.867	93.0%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
63.661	93.0%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
62.930	79.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
62.685	95.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
61.962	99.5%	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
61.278	98.9%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
57.978	95.5%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
57.919	97.8%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
55.891	99.3%	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
54.719	98.3%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
53.517	99.1%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
52.330	93.2%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
51.135	98.1%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
50.134	99.5%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
47.617	97.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
46.377	99.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
45.172	96.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
43.393	96.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
42.742	66.9%	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
42.287	97.2%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
42.123	99.2%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
41.431	93.5%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
41.021	97.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
40.944	98.9%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
40.849	95.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
40.530	90.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
39.802	95.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
39.596	97.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
38.844	92.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
35.353	93.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
34.722	81.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
34.084	98.8%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.068	25.0%	When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister?	Continuous
33.977	99.4%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
33.731	96.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
33.604	96.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
33.082	99.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.154	96.9%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
30.495	95.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
29.270	98.6%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.846	98.6%	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.636	81.9%	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
27.287	87.1%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.012	97.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
27.010	96.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
25.839	98.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
23.909	93.9%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
21.617	94.6%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
20.935	56.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
19.866	90.9%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
19.096	92.4%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
18.517	98.8%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
18.465	27.1%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
18.335	98.8%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
18.149	94.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
17.855	94.9%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.352	98.4%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
17.246	99.1%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.898	97.6%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
15.682	73.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
15.452	95.4%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
14.238	93.5%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
13.823	96.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
13.646	99.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
13.287	56.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
13.066	98.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
13.051	71.3%	[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.745	95.4%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
10.236	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Matt Murphy)	Binary
10.064	99.1%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
9.159	96.4%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
9.040	12.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
6.545	10.5%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
6.484	95.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
6.452	96.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
6.385	95.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
5.362	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Tom Caulfield)	Binary
5.211	22.9%	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
5.110	23.4%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Mark Liu)	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Steve Mollenkopf)	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Kirk Skaugen)	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Stacy Smith)	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (David Zinsner)	Binary
3.028	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Michelle Johnston Holthaus)	Binary
3.021	92.8%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
3.014	17.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
2.998	88.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
2.860	5.8%	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
2.827	94.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
2.694	98.9%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
2.616	53.9%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
2.558	28.3%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.487	96.4%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
1.545	7.5%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
1.478	52.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
1.153	7.9%	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
1.031	95.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
0.745	6.6%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
0.451	99.4%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
0.443	88.4%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
0.435	99.6%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.322	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Elon Musk)	Binary
0.310	56.5%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
0.270	0.6%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
0.141	1.5%	Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-0.222	27.0%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
-0.326	1.0%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-0.772	53.1%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
-0.903	96.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-2.032	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Johny Srouji)	Binary
-2.453	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Gregory Bryant)	Binary
-2.455	98.2%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
-3.746	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Sanjay Jha)	Binary
-3.902	15.7%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
-5.665	96.4%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
-5.872	100.0%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-6.214	99.5%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-7.820	29.5%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
-8.069	87.0%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-8.355	94.6%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
-9.683	28.8%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-10.380	94.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-11.783	24.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-12.481	50.9%	Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?	Multiple Choice
-13.809	95.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
-14.078	99.2%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-15.579	97.4%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-16.173	98.4%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-18.064	99.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-18.543	96.5%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-19.891	35.6%	Who will be the next CEO of Intel? (Lip-Bu Tan)	Binary
-29.894	98.3%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-31.186	65.7%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-31.704	94.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-372.334	93.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary