PeterWildeford

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6007	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
147.240	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
117.817	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
115.123	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
111.631	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
110.986	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
103.151	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
101.195	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
96.548	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
94.521	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
93.862	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
92.535	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
92.476	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
91.123	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
90.507	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
88.315	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
88.266	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
87.228	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
86.537	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
85.377	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
84.880	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
84.874	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
83.937	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
83.442	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
82.493	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
82.352	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
80.739	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
79.933	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
79.496	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
76.885	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
76.196	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
75.489	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
75.067	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
74.915	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
74.624	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
71.564	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
70.659	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
68.856	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
68.642	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
67.665	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
67.378	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
67.285	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
66.946	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
65.382	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
64.723	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
64.324	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
62.452	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
62.445	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
62.271	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
62.155	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
61.713	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
61.487	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
61.482	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
61.309	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
60.765	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
59.942	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
59.898	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
57.732	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
57.678	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
57.603	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
56.765	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
56.465	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
56.380	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
55.878	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
55.369	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
55.061	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
54.847	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
54.163	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
53.457	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
53.394	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
53.183	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
52.769	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
52.709	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
52.426	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
51.322	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
49.799	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
49.508	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
49.288	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
48.456	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
48.196	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
47.721	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
47.719	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
47.511	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
46.921	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
45.016	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
44.232	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
43.649	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
43.520	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
42.975	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
42.555	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
42.432	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
42.387	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
42.072	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
41.949	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
41.673	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
41.673	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
41.297	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
39.235	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
38.774	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
38.483	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
37.010	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
36.723	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
35.504	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
35.256	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
34.937	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
34.091	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
33.978	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
33.679	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
32.603	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
32.503	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
31.854	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
31.736	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
31.534	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
31.526	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
31.133	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
31.115	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
30.264	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
29.857	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
29.517	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
28.683	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
28.469	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
27.240	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
26.431	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
25.771	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
25.676	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
25.479	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
25.352	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
25.276	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
25.110	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
24.782	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
24.576	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
23.510	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
23.335	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
22.605	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
22.484	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
22.477	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
21.809	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
21.622	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
21.207	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
21.191	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
21.104	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
20.514	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
20.129	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
19.703	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
17.886	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
17.629	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
17.554	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
17.475	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
17.007	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
16.697	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
16.657	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
16.078	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
15.401	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
15.296	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
14.066	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
13.987	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
13.947	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
13.214	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
12.838	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
12.492	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
12.118	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
11.922	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
11.850	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
11.486	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
11.281	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
11.134	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
10.859	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
9.836	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
9.684	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
9.105	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
8.806	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
8.484	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
7.840	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
7.719	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
7.697	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
7.484	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
7.043	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
6.886	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
6.678	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
6.651	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
6.421	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
6.411	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
6.403	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
5.999	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.863	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
5.349	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
5.348	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.960	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
4.936	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
4.679	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
4.459	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
4.336	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
3.692	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.678	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
3.634	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
3.125	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
2.860	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
2.507	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.143	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.510	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.131	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
0.859	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
0.449	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
0.424	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
0.338	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
0.254	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
0.093	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
0.042	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
-0.128	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-0.452	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
-0.632	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-0.713	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-1.267	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
-2.396	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-3.305	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-3.830	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-5.699	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-6.129	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-7.476	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-7.913	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-8.352	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-8.483	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-9.692	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-10.182	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-10.631	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-10.862	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-12.213	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-12.701	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-13.286	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-16.491	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-17.219	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-19.351	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-20.639	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
-23.378	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-24.924	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-25.738	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
-26.364	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-26.474	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-29.544	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-29.574	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-35.694	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-37.642	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-43.607	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-54.012	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-58.216	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-58.329	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-64.158	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-77.647	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-93.718	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-104.417	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-104.850	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-130.228	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-173.688	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-199.556	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-202.582	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-202.630	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-303.088	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary