| 110.370 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
| 108.959 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
| 103.933 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 100.812 | How Many States or Jurisdictions Will Decide the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Continuous |
| 99.342 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 99.102 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 98.827 | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.711 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 98.659 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.651 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.614 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.034 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 97.895 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 97.749 | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 97.217 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.200 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.199 | Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.184 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
| 97.047 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
| 96.777 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.194 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
| 96.115 | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
| 95.792 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.763 | Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 95.574 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
| 95.265 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 94.910 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 94.375 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
| 93.710 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride) | Binary |
| 93.374 | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 92.444 | DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024 | Binary |
| 92.429 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 92.200 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.139 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.978 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 91.796 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 91.603 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
| 91.498 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.373 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 91.254 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 90.809 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 90.240 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 90.142 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.590 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
| 89.246 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.104 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 89.104 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 89.104 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 89.102 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 89.024 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.908 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 88.891 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.773 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 88.261 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
| 88.234 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 88.179 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
| 88.051 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Binary |
| 88.011 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
| 87.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 87.646 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 87.432 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 87.186 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly) | Binary |
| 87.129 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 86.790 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
| 86.701 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 86.608 | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.521 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
| 86.270 | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 86.104 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 86.011 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.756 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 85.643 | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.496 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.494 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 85.487 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.024 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 84.973 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 84.888 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.688 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.373 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.273 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.267 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 84.193 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
| 83.980 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.623 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.273 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 83.172 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.436 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.221 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
| 82.221 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
| 82.221 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
| 81.836 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 81.404 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 81.292 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.061 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.763 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.413 | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
| 79.800 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 79.622 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 78.898 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.506 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.351 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | Continuous |
| 78.143 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 78.105 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
| 77.610 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.425 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
| 77.265 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 77.174 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
| 76.925 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
| 76.707 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
| 76.388 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 76.305 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
| 75.729 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.522 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 75.309 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 75.219 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.920 | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.331 | Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | Binary |
| 74.131 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.130 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
| 74.130 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
| 73.767 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
| 72.986 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk) | Binary |
| 72.861 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk) | Binary |
| 72.854 | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
| 72.480 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1) | Binary |
| 72.257 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 72.054 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 71.824 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 71.650 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.612 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 71.495 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 71.297 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 70.126 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 69.772 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 69.626 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
| 68.280 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.350 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.127 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.909 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 65.864 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 65.801 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 65.518 | On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group? | Multiple Choice |
| 65.087 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
| 64.894 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 64.888 | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 64.486 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 64.475 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 64.402 | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 63.836 | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 62.848 | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
| 62.561 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 62.323 | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
| 61.623 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 60.888 | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.517 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.347 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 59.193 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.878 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
| 57.554 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
| 57.513 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.920 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| 56.888 | What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters? | Continuous |
| 56.737 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.544 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 56.032 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 55.819 | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| 55.469 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
| 55.356 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
| 54.766 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 54.459 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.430 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.970 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
| 53.877 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
| 53.327 | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
| 53.111 | Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.605 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.249 | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.895 | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
| 51.779 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
| 51.537 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
| 51.481 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 51.301 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.483 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| 49.841 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.646 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 49.543 | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
| 49.367 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 49.273 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 49.113 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 48.867 | How many personal bankruptcies will be filed in the United States in the third quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 48.776 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
| 48.714 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 48.693 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.494 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| 48.267 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.120 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 47.466 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 47.432 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| 47.398 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.076 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 46.154 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
| 46.046 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 45.914 | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
| 45.493 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
| 45.448 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands) | Binary |
| 45.166 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 44.335 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| 44.294 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 43.981 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia) | Binary |
| 43.981 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland) | Binary |
| 43.695 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
| 43.357 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.973 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Aug. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 42.309 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 41.757 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 41.687 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 41.123 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 40.951 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine) | Binary |
| 39.732 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.610 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
| 39.303 | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 39.267 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 39.080 | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
| 38.798 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 38.242 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
| 38.099 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 37.850 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 37.823 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.771 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 37.543 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
| 36.855 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 36.136 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino) | Binary |
| 36.099 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland) | Binary |
| 35.806 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 35.732 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.285 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway) | Binary |
| 34.489 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
| 34.050 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
| 34.012 | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 33.757 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 33.588 | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 33.586 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece) | Binary |
| 33.260 | Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 32.974 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 32.860 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.846 | 2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? | Binary |
| 32.719 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.473 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.003 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
| 31.868 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Oct. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 31.631 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 31.507 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.277 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg) | Binary |
| 31.226 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
| 31.076 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 30.284 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.819 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025 | Binary |
| 29.755 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
| 29.605 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
| 29.478 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.136 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
| 29.104 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Dec. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 28.924 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
| 28.889 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 28.684 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 28.634 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
| 28.527 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
| 28.327 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 27.556 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Sep. 28, '24) | Continuous |
| 27.317 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
| 27.279 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia) | Binary |
| 27.279 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel) | Binary |
| 27.227 | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
| 27.125 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
| 27.063 | US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 27.057 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
| 26.992 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
| 26.914 | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.838 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania) | Binary |
| 26.720 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.519 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
| 26.246 | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.057 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
| 25.987 | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.862 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 24.779 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia) | Binary |
| 24.513 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.993 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 23.674 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 23.417 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 23.361 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria) | Binary |
| 23.042 | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 22.937 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 22.689 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.534 | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.447 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
| 21.411 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
| 21.314 | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 21.051 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
| 21.019 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
| 20.423 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 20.269 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.804 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
| 19.746 | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.065 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
| 18.871 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.784 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.326 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 17.170 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus) | Binary |
| 16.943 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick) | Binary |
| 16.443 | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.074 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia) | Binary |
| 15.434 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
| 15.193 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.695 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
| 13.630 | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
| 13.567 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
| 13.457 | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.723 | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.695 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
| 12.681 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 12.666 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 12.664 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.538 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
| 12.240 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.859 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| 9.793 | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 9.484 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.698 | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 8.394 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
| 8.158 | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
| 8.120 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.324 | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 7.136 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 6.910 | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.229 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 6.187 | US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025) | Binary |
| 6.064 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
| 5.761 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
| 5.727 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.711 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.983 | What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.832 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.028 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.831 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
| 3.077 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
| 3.038 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| 2.622 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
| 1.512 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.342 | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.651 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia) | Binary |
| 0.493 | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.421 | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.107 | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.336 | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.924 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| -0.990 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.839 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark) | Binary |
| -2.839 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania) | Binary |
| -3.104 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
| -3.663 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -6.371 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland) | Binary |
| -9.048 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
| -9.113 | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
| -11.185 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
| -11.590 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -11.766 | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
| -12.961 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -15.102 | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| -15.275 | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
| -15.870 | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
| -16.276 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
| -17.263 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.654 | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.726 | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.953 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -18.742 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
| -18.795 | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
| -20.588 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| -20.616 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
| -22.620 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland) | Binary |
| -23.506 | Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24? | Binary |
| -23.656 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| -24.832 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal) | Binary |
| -25.096 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium) | Binary |
| -25.368 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan) | Binary |
| -25.689 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| -26.599 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| -26.654 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -27.101 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -27.730 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| -40.891 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -44.875 | Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award? | Multiple Choice |
| -46.144 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -48.107 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
| -49.585 | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
| -50.374 | 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -55.559 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter? | Binary |
| -61.125 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2024) | Continuous |
| -61.201 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
| -65.719 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
| -72.126 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -73.587 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
| -82.857 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -83.739 | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia) | Binary |
| -90.432 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -93.659 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
| -100.281 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -111.423 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| -115.318 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -116.904 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| -139.792 | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
| -148.550 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -159.771 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -296.074 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -327.383 | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
| -364.191 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
| -385.523 | AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025) | Binary |