PeterWildeford

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.502	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.288	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
76.860	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
68.233	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
56.347	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
50.210	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
49.186	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
49.134	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
48.635	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
41.061	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
39.936	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
38.297	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
36.626	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
36.075	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
34.386	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
33.843	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
33.658	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
30.886	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
29.744	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.723	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
27.666	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
27.379	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
27.157	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
25.466	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
25.235	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
24.643	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
24.632	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
24.114	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
23.582	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
23.348	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
22.915	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
22.562	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
22.455	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
21.785	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
21.209	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
20.206	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
20.134	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
19.969	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
19.498	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
19.457	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
19.385	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
19.367	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
19.215	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
19.195	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
18.829	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
18.800	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
18.445	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
18.380	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.368	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
18.090	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
17.386	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
17.363	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
17.089	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
17.088	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
17.087	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
16.858	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
16.748	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
16.729	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
16.394	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
16.335	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
16.022	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
15.945	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
15.913	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
15.465	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
15.335	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
15.166	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
14.784	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
14.503	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
14.249	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
14.213	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
14.139	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
14.041	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
13.842	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
13.821	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
13.792	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
13.476	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
13.414	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
13.003	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
12.662	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
12.483	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
12.459	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
12.450	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
12.381	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
11.561	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
11.218	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
11.012	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
10.811	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
10.707	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
10.417	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
10.408	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
10.137	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
10.070	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
9.996	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
9.870	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
9.711	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
9.627	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
9.595	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
9.553	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
9.382	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
9.067	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
9.063	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
8.834	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
8.767	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
8.347	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
7.576	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
7.538	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.228	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.175	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
6.877	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
6.662	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
6.634	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
6.436	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
6.055	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
6.024	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
5.907	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
5.890	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
5.824	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
5.795	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
5.723	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
5.522	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
5.295	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
5.050	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
4.986	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
4.949	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
4.940	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
4.936	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
4.493	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
4.427	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
4.410	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
4.178	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
4.157	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
4.154	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
4.135	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
4.013	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
4.011	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
3.989	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
3.728	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
3.680	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
3.631	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
3.619	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
3.581	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
3.228	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
3.149	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
2.902	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
2.844	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
2.784	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
2.764	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.666	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
2.614	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.366	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
2.354	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
2.164	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
2.072	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
2.064	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
1.913	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.854	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.852	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
1.843	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
1.827	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.790	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
1.756	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
1.686	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
1.671	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
1.602	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
1.534	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
1.392	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
1.367	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.320	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
1.294	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.271	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.159	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
1.024	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
0.850	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.840	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
0.791	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
0.753	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.624	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
0.623	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
0.463	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.454	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
0.443	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
0.282	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
0.260	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.240	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
0.201	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
0.167	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
0.151	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
0.125	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
0.103	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
0.080	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
0.050	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
0.048	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
0.042	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
0.011	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
0.000	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.004	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-0.018	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-0.072	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-0.197	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.233	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.410	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-0.482	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-0.490	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
-0.782	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.859	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-0.935	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-1.052	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-1.237	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
-1.237	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.252	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
-1.265	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-1.678	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
-1.712	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
-1.781	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-2.211	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-2.226	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-2.484	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-2.530	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-3.226	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-3.406	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-3.859	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
-4.136	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.210	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
-4.324	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
-4.998	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.335	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-5.399	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-6.010	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-6.245	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-6.757	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-6.973	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-7.310	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-7.526	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-7.654	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-8.096	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-8.186	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
-8.631	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
-8.661	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-9.144	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-12.007	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-12.795	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-14.669	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
-15.047	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-17.390	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-19.043	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
-20.906	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-22.479	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-23.330	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-25.137	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-28.564	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
-30.811	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-37.858	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-57.805	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
-59.296	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-62.439	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-74.416	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-183.680	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-198.505	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous