Pablo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4639	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
208.904	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
183.193	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
133.945	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
129.908	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
127.912	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
125.824	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
122.619	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
120.283	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
114.469	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
111.658	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
101.721	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
100.594	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
98.692	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
97.607	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
96.459	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
95.444	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
94.562	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
94.201	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
91.745	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
91.103	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
87.488	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
86.960	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
86.331	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
86.276	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
86.099	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
84.752	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
84.528	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
84.188	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
84.067	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
84.047	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
83.297	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
81.505	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
81.252	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
81.092	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
80.348	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
80.348	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
80.098	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
79.549	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
78.520	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
78.419	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
78.101	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
77.813	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
77.774	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
76.218	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
75.970	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
75.709	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
75.625	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
75.607	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
74.461	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
73.278	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
73.176	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
71.176	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
70.745	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
70.008	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
69.592	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
69.577	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
67.914	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
66.413	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
65.681	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
65.451	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
64.531	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
63.160	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
63.077	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
62.165	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
61.670	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
61.186	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
61.099	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
60.577	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
59.565	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
58.567	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
58.218	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
57.477	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
55.980	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
55.561	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
55.557	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
55.288	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
55.205	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
54.659	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
53.912	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
53.577	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
53.096	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
52.300	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
49.277	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
49.006	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
46.706	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
46.046	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
44.923	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
44.781	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
42.880	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
42.098	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
41.927	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
41.650	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
39.526	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
39.230	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
38.704	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
37.691	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
37.072	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
36.312	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
34.598	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
31.788	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
30.403	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
29.110	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
28.741	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.502	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
23.117	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
22.831	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
21.412	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
21.214	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
19.393	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
19.012	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
16.832	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
15.286	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
14.617	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
12.845	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
11.207	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
9.649	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.569	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
9.400	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
9.184	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
8.088	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
7.679	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
5.971	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
5.346	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.458	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.960	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
0.714	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.165	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
-0.077	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-3.941	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-4.242	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-4.457	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.902	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-6.730	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-6.908	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-7.058	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-8.459	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-10.391	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-14.369	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-14.434	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-15.487	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-16.375	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-17.704	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-18.036	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-19.424	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-20.085	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-20.103	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-22.034	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-22.944	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-23.863	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-32.841	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-33.923	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-37.636	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-40.043	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-44.972	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-48.679	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-53.037	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-54.436	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-57.796	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-64.772	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-78.563	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-94.659	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-119.776	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-143.362	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-144.690	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-147.737	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-153.134	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-157.192	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-180.461	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-185.029	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-187.985	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-194.377	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-194.410	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-234.126	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-248.622	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary