Pablo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5.705	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.913	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
103.773	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
66.012	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
60.291	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
58.144	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
48.427	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
44.705	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
42.059	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
41.057	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
40.414	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
39.613	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
39.189	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
37.700	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
36.685	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
35.668	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
35.283	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
34.636	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
34.436	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
33.633	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
33.043	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
32.707	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
31.973	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
31.377	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
31.164	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
31.152	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
30.320	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
28.959	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
28.750	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
28.559	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
28.098	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
27.798	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
27.683	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
26.251	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
24.863	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
24.403	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
24.362	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
22.820	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
22.360	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
22.022	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
21.886	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
21.656	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
21.271	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
20.961	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
20.538	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
20.473	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
19.749	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
19.476	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
19.396	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
19.271	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
19.018	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
18.517	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
18.205	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
17.834	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
17.710	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
17.658	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
16.777	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
16.695	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
16.563	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
16.468	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
16.448	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
16.251	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
15.913	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
15.214	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
15.197	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.500	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
13.912	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
13.825	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
13.796	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
13.793	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.445	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
13.410	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.319	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
12.964	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
12.733	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
12.512	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
12.434	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
12.357	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
12.070	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
11.719	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
10.748	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
10.736	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
10.719	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
10.574	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
10.430	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.315	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
9.889	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
9.813	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
9.654	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
9.061	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
8.858	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
8.815	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
8.750	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
8.424	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.344	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
8.226	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
7.878	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
7.660	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
7.383	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
7.376	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
6.915	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
6.693	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
6.579	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
6.558	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
6.452	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
6.234	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
5.709	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
5.607	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
5.488	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
5.396	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
5.292	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
4.948	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
4.737	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
4.632	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
4.455	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
4.327	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
4.203	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
4.151	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
4.060	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
3.833	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.822	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.688	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.502	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
2.551	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.516	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
2.460	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
1.655	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
1.420	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
1.412	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.314	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
0.762	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.440	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.089	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
0.027	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-1.206	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-1.492	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-1.731	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-2.837	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-3.288	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-3.316	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-3.693	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-4.335	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-4.676	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-5.072	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-5.573	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-5.670	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-6.848	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-7.804	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-10.870	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-11.137	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-11.261	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
-11.784	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
-11.820	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-14.899	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-22.716	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-23.292	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-23.971	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-25.552	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-28.969	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-34.271	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-37.656	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-39.905	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-42.165	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-43.054	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-44.693	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-49.206	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-49.855	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-70.343	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-80.972	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-94.022	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-104.461	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-106.235	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-115.827	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-146.639	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-179.039	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous