mattvdm

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6020	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
125.350	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
120.241	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
113.199	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
111.102	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
110.872	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
100.888	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
100.126	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
94.287	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
93.260	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
92.017	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
90.720	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
90.029	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
88.955	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
88.622	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
88.017	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
86.046	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
82.733	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
81.235	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
81.201	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
79.357	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
77.641	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
77.072	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
76.821	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
76.172	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
75.906	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
75.035	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
73.806	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
73.535	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
72.773	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
72.171	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
71.878	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
71.667	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
70.321	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
69.780	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
69.777	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
69.685	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
68.883	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
68.597	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
68.207	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
67.407	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
67.089	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
66.650	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
66.538	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
66.499	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
64.431	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
64.390	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
63.592	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
63.170	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
61.384	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
60.487	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
60.188	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
59.058	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
57.154	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
56.561	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
56.183	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
56.074	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
55.937	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
53.866	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
53.613	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
53.506	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
52.596	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
52.419	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
51.044	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
50.655	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
49.782	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
49.731	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
49.438	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
47.647	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
46.873	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
46.713	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
46.326	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
46.238	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
45.326	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
44.848	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
43.473	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
43.148	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
43.011	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
42.845	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
42.244	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
42.145	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
39.826	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
39.790	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
39.752	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
38.444	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
38.393	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
38.164	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
37.502	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
36.151	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
35.391	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
33.278	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
32.997	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
32.628	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
32.488	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
31.859	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
31.708	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
31.384	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
31.161	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
30.929	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
30.856	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
30.704	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
30.339	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
30.046	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
28.226	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
28.050	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
27.885	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
27.650	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
26.913	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
26.205	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
26.052	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
25.903	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
25.403	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
25.377	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
24.384	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
23.339	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
23.287	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
22.445	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
22.214	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
22.079	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
21.138	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
20.722	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
18.620	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
18.388	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
17.710	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
17.704	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
17.234	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
17.197	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
16.976	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
16.790	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
15.678	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
14.971	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
14.600	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
14.048	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
13.288	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
13.180	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
12.157	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
12.058	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
11.713	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
11.607	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
9.544	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
9.258	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
9.201	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
8.560	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
8.196	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
8.060	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
7.812	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.436	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
7.247	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
5.903	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
5.715	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
5.294	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
5.185	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
4.529	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
4.388	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
4.325	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
3.769	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
3.698	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
3.596	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
3.592	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.467	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
2.335	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
2.221	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
2.209	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
1.955	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
1.939	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
1.571	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.255	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
1.167	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
1.145	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
0.946	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
0.747	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.613	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
0.413	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.280	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.188	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
0.152	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.106	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.087	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
0.066	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
0.043	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
0.017	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.070	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.140	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-0.241	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-0.376	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-1.092	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-1.465	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-3.312	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-3.632	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-4.814	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-5.433	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-8.260	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-13.356	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-14.008	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-15.220	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-15.600	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-15.688	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-17.300	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-17.577	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-18.335	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-19.120	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-20.465	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-21.238	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-23.190	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-26.330	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-26.374	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-26.910	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-36.769	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-43.946	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-45.218	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-59.681	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-66.011	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-71.300	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-71.754	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-82.305	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-313.958	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary