mattvdm

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.395	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.842	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
70.224	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
65.885	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
54.168	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
49.177	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
46.862	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
44.190	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
41.076	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
40.311	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
40.022	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
33.878	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
32.514	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
30.437	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
29.941	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
29.199	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
28.446	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
27.704	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
26.504	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
26.098	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
24.872	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
24.761	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
24.414	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
23.628	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
23.563	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
23.022	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
22.210	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
21.702	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
21.511	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
21.359	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
20.870	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
20.732	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
19.885	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
19.598	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
18.851	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
18.834	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
18.749	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
18.476	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
17.813	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
17.363	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
17.291	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
16.740	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
16.372	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
16.058	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
15.955	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
15.857	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
15.565	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
15.491	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
14.776	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
14.683	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
14.640	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
14.439	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
14.186	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
14.011	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
13.989	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
13.177	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
12.987	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
12.849	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
12.348	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
12.159	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
11.855	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
11.708	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
11.231	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
10.999	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
10.085	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
9.490	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
9.486	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
9.420	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
8.864	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
8.850	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
8.724	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
8.523	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.514	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
8.448	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
8.430	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
8.388	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
8.337	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
8.234	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
8.203	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
8.001	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
7.886	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
7.832	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.567	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
7.441	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
7.077	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
6.925	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.902	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
6.879	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
6.714	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.703	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
6.528	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
6.520	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
6.480	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
6.075	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
6.013	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
5.971	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
5.904	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
5.777	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
5.713	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
5.521	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
5.310	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
5.200	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
5.158	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
5.050	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
5.048	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
4.822	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
4.219	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
4.182	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
4.108	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
4.066	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
3.980	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
3.540	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
3.424	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
3.414	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
3.410	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
3.278	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
3.206	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
3.195	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
3.161	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
3.102	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.018	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
2.964	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
2.912	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.894	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
2.829	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
2.690	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.621	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
2.524	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
2.467	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.394	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
2.364	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
2.225	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.067	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.967	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
1.806	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
1.774	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.643	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
1.623	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
1.494	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
1.323	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
1.251	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
1.240	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
1.178	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.923	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
0.700	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
0.659	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
0.613	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
0.586	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
0.561	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
0.558	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
0.437	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.363	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
0.248	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
0.232	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.163	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.156	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
0.152	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
0.149	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.133	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
0.108	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
0.100	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
0.098	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.097	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
0.075	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
0.073	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
0.054	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
0.022	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
-0.019	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.021	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-0.071	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.091	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-0.093	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-0.113	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.296	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-0.301	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.302	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-0.341	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
-0.392	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.417	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-0.595	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
-0.983	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.124	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-1.311	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
-1.597	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-1.974	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-2.269	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-2.296	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
-2.421	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
-3.532	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.556	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-3.999	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-4.847	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
-5.027	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-5.138	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-5.688	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-5.887	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-6.468	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-6.578	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
-6.749	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-7.570	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-7.704	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
-8.824	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-9.365	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-12.037	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-12.071	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
-12.507	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-13.667	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-14.982	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
-15.099	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
-15.716	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-15.847	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
-15.947	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
-16.911	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-19.177	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-21.972	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-28.361	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-105.261	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary