Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2734	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.683	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
76.187	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
75.079	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
74.799	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
74.740	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
72.987	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
70.877	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
61.459	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
55.682	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
54.151	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
53.707	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
53.132	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
51.277	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
49.961	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
49.059	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
46.810	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
46.627	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
46.245	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
46.166	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
42.842	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
42.157	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
41.979	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
40.744	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
39.824	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
38.891	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
37.740	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
37.724	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
35.700	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
35.578	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
35.496	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
34.737	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
34.383	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
33.609	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
32.402	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
32.245	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
32.119	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
31.988	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
28.350	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.348	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
27.412	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
27.348	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
26.506	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
26.408	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
26.153	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
25.817	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
24.228	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
24.037	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
22.976	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
22.755	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
22.742	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
21.215	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
21.057	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
20.929	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
20.484	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
20.006	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
19.924	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
19.867	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
19.259	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
19.100	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
19.050	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
18.197	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
16.242	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
15.923	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
15.438	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
14.664	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
14.597	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
14.485	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
14.367	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
14.315	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
14.108	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
13.678	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
13.582	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.579	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
13.357	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.081	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
12.647	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
12.420	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
12.008	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
11.937	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
11.762	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
11.498	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
11.444	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
11.438	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
10.858	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
10.843	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
9.959	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
9.895	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
9.794	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
9.644	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
9.626	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
9.515	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
9.242	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
9.182	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
8.951	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
8.793	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
8.238	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
8.219	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
8.144	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
7.574	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
7.446	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
7.430	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
7.334	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
7.332	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
7.308	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
7.271	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
7.121	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
7.092	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
6.918	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
6.886	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
6.566	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
6.522	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
6.466	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
6.360	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
6.351	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
6.120	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
5.418	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
5.325	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
5.318	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
5.251	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
5.164	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
4.932	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
4.899	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
4.492	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
4.466	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
4.418	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
4.321	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
4.019	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
3.928	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
3.924	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
3.835	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
3.679	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
3.592	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
3.489	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
3.411	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
3.363	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
3.352	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
3.307	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.295	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
3.293	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
3.177	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
3.108	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
3.053	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
2.903	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
2.896	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
2.804	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
2.690	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
2.608	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
2.384	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.123	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
2.111	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
1.906	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
1.869	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
1.800	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
1.703	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
1.652	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
1.623	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
1.563	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
1.499	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
1.433	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
1.313	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.307	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.295	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
1.217	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
1.189	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
1.137	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
1.135	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
1.057	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
1.053	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.007	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
0.943	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
0.886	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
0.827	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.749	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
0.723	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
0.615	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.604	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
0.523	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
0.510	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
0.504	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
0.450	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
0.449	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.354	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
0.327	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
0.320	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
0.283	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
0.266	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
0.231	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
0.121	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
0.115	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
0.102	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
0.071	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
0.063	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.047	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
0.028	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.020	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.002	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
-	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
-	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-0.002	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-0.049	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
-0.056	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-0.175	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.260	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.711	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-0.712	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-0.962	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-2.057	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-2.603	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-3.164	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-3.197	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-3.280	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-3.350	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-3.635	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-3.747	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-3.938	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.610	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-5.820	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-5.946	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
-8.230	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-8.817	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-10.607	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-13.396	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-13.399	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-13.584	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-14.212	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-14.357	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-15.046	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-15.070	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
-31.824	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-44.671	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-98.765	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary