Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.874	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.637	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
75.844	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
69.278	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
65.414	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
60.630	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
60.466	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
54.003	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
53.052	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
50.901	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
48.384	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
44.025	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
41.979	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
41.785	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
41.781	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
41.482	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
40.035	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
39.970	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
38.559	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
38.551	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
38.520	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
37.766	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
33.132	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
30.462	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
29.212	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
28.980	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
28.517	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
27.790	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
27.462	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
26.717	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
26.700	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
25.596	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
24.739	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
24.562	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
23.541	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
23.471	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
21.100	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
20.679	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
20.672	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
20.200	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
20.134	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.083	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
19.988	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
18.982	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
18.354	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
16.899	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
16.808	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
16.699	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
15.795	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
15.714	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
15.479	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
15.214	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
14.830	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
14.807	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
14.443	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
14.145	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
13.971	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
13.932	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.911	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
13.908	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
13.542	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
13.174	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
12.442	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
12.431	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
12.413	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
12.018	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
12.017	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
12.010	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
11.645	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
11.554	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
11.461	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
11.142	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
10.961	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.806	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
10.701	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
10.067	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
9.802	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
9.737	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
9.056	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
8.676	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
8.328	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
8.321	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
8.245	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
7.917	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
7.692	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
7.559	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
7.509	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
7.309	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
7.236	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
7.123	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
7.025	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
6.829	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
6.747	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
6.690	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
6.569	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
6.167	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
5.904	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.735	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
5.693	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
5.477	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
5.378	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
5.234	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
5.207	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
4.891	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
4.867	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
4.774	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
4.768	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
4.664	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
4.525	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.382	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
4.204	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
4.129	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
4.087	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.966	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
3.923	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
3.541	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
3.506	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
3.424	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.256	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
2.771	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
2.739	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
2.681	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
2.542	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
2.480	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
2.450	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
2.437	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
2.390	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
2.359	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
2.357	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
2.332	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
2.269	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.187	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
2.124	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
2.053	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
1.950	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
1.916	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.892	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
1.835	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.820	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.624	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.458	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
1.457	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
1.429	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
1.379	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.364	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
1.349	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
1.344	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.325	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
1.324	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.216	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
1.167	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.090	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.056	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
1.043	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
1.023	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
0.959	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.952	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.939	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
0.933	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.930	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
0.907	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.796	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
0.778	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
0.645	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.586	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.503	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
0.464	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
0.445	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.440	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
0.420	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
0.406	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
0.344	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
0.329	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
0.220	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.175	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
0.151	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
0.126	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.100	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.009	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
-0.086	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.116	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
-0.136	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-0.197	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
-0.254	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
-0.286	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
-0.369	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
-0.447	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.645	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
-0.676	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-0.735	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.959	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-1.172	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.195	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
-1.474	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-1.530	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-1.613	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
-1.643	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-1.838	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-2.062	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-2.266	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-2.402	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
-2.560	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
-2.803	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-2.966	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-3.028	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
-3.061	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-3.112	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-3.266	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
-3.267	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-3.339	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
-3.719	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-3.745	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
-3.806	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-3.937	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
-4.402	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
-4.664	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-5.173	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-5.547	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
-6.651	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-6.917	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-7.137	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
-7.212	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-7.330	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-7.418	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-8.403	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-9.005	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-9.215	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-9.609	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-10.775	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-10.909	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-11.716	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
-11.955	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
-12.563	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-13.957	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-14.125	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
-14.394	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-14.902	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-16.084	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-16.691	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-17.094	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-17.958	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-18.182	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-18.222	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-18.788	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-20.304	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-20.524	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-23.314	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-23.500	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-25.231	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-26.610	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-27.834	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-36.132	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-36.876	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-36.961	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-37.800	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-45.358	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
-61.173	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
-61.797	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
-62.870	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
-83.464	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-102.245	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous