lars3loff

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.146	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
174.250	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
164.170	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
56.215	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
49.149	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
47.844	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
46.596	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
43.410	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
37.746	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
36.871	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
36.727	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
36.027	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
34.372	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
30.080	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
28.472	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
26.614	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
25.975	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
24.989	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
24.267	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
23.337	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
23.243	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
20.002	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
19.549	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
19.315	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
19.153	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
19.135	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
16.886	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
16.730	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
16.381	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
16.281	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
15.984	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
14.275	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
14.187	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
13.928	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
13.872	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
13.786	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
13.737	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
13.688	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
13.683	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
13.347	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
13.055	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
12.800	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
12.268	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
12.143	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
11.582	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
11.526	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
11.511	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
11.424	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
11.385	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
11.202	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
10.887	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
10.804	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
10.673	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
10.615	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
10.405	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
10.027	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
9.870	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
9.644	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
9.130	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
8.874	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
8.778	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
8.724	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
8.652	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
8.551	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
8.539	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
8.516	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
8.496	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
8.368	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
8.135	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
8.033	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.902	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
7.789	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
7.661	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
7.640	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
7.183	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
6.915	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
6.865	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
6.833	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.764	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
6.734	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.690	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
6.591	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
6.362	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
6.361	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
6.218	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
6.144	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
6.085	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
6.000	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.848	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
5.646	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
5.542	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
5.430	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
5.358	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
5.329	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
5.163	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
5.090	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
4.971	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
4.933	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
4.834	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
4.737	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
4.713	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.677	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
4.614	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
4.598	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.467	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
4.466	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
4.415	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
4.254	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
4.178	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
4.137	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.990	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
3.935	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
3.867	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.848	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
3.768	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
3.642	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
3.325	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
3.186	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
3.147	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
3.089	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
3.057	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
3.042	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
2.889	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
2.883	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
2.783	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
2.770	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
2.747	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
2.715	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
2.574	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
2.546	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
2.544	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
2.456	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
2.420	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
2.223	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
2.204	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
2.199	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
1.988	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
1.972	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
1.921	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
1.764	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
1.642	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.598	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
1.589	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
1.579	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
1.564	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
1.503	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.443	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
1.422	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
1.410	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
1.355	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
1.337	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
1.231	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
1.174	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
1.170	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
1.168	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
1.099	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
1.017	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.972	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
0.962	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
0.883	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
0.847	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
0.844	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
0.842	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.736	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
0.706	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
0.686	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
0.515	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
0.489	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
0.471	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.463	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
0.461	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
0.435	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.345	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
0.340	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.309	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
0.285	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
0.263	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
0.211	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
0.207	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
0.191	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
0.190	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
0.173	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.136	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
0.116	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
0.091	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
0.070	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
0.035	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
0.033	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
0.031	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
0.022	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
0.018	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
0.016	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
0.002	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-0.013	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-0.049	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.105	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-0.110	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.242	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-0.290	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.354	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-0.487	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.514	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.523	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-0.748	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.757	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
-0.779	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-0.786	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.793	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
-0.840	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
-0.863	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.898	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.994	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.059	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
-1.080	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-1.114	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-1.145	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
-1.239	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-1.416	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
-1.423	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
-1.942	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
-1.993	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
-2.086	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-2.129	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-2.247	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-2.340	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-2.397	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
-2.406	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-2.507	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-2.568	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
-3.033	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-3.075	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
-3.148	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-3.196	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-3.370	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
-3.502	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-3.770	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-3.819	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-4.388	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
-4.751	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-4.949	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-5.270	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-6.184	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
-6.217	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-6.309	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-6.892	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
-6.941	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-6.942	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-7.213	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-8.117	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-8.304	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-8.495	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
-8.737	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
-9.383	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-9.783	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-10.224	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-10.594	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-10.651	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
-10.662	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-10.901	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
-11.809	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-12.398	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-13.069	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-14.094	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-14.263	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-15.018	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-15.374	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
-17.185	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-18.115	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-18.634	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-19.555	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-20.264	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-20.277	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-20.418	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-20.537	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
-22.476	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-23.661	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
-24.395	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
-24.777	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
-28.693	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-29.699	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-42.435	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-47.669	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-50.459	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
-55.198	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-56.656	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
-57.915	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
-76.426	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous