Reprisal

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6582	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
226.643	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
193.748	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
191.994	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
181.605	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
170.864	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
139.406	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
138.254	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
138.088	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
133.902	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
122.826	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
118.885	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
117.480	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
116.486	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
110.077	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
109.034	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
108.748	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
107.212	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
106.896	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
106.688	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
105.031	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
100.774	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
100.698	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
98.932	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
96.644	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
96.261	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
96.254	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
95.947	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
94.974	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
93.591	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
93.310	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
92.012	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
91.960	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
91.472	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
91.096	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
90.604	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
90.542	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
88.970	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
87.750	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
86.899	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
84.654	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
84.611	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
84.503	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
84.266	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
84.189	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
84.040	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
83.930	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
82.850	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
82.567	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
81.607	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
81.439	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
80.872	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
80.868	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
78.708	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
77.978	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
77.737	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
77.196	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
76.627	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
75.976	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
75.118	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
74.824	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
74.485	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
74.306	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
74.215	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
72.991	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
70.908	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
70.800	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
70.594	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
70.563	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
69.013	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
68.757	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
68.726	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
67.569	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
67.332	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
66.682	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
66.370	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
65.694	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
65.364	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
65.301	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
64.721	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
64.595	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
64.532	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
64.218	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
64.145	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
62.571	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
62.489	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
62.036	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
61.421	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
61.231	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
60.011	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
59.816	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
59.677	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
59.149	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
59.092	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
57.897	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
57.442	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
54.310	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
53.571	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
53.036	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
52.785	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
51.318	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
49.898	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
49.403	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
48.948	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
48.204	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
47.963	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
47.181	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
46.859	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
46.550	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
46.213	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
45.340	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
44.637	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
44.515	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
44.141	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
43.751	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
43.456	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
41.828	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
41.533	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
41.041	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
40.847	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
40.745	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
40.196	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
38.322	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
37.879	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
36.873	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
35.528	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
35.112	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
34.998	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
34.986	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
34.705	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
33.912	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
33.105	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
32.381	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
32.031	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
31.842	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
31.394	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
30.872	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
29.310	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
28.761	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
27.938	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
27.773	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
27.534	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
27.478	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
27.352	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
27.142	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
26.805	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
26.432	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
26.388	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
26.010	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
25.541	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
25.011	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
24.927	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
24.793	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
24.772	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
24.313	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
24.047	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
23.879	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
23.869	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
23.076	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
22.534	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
21.738	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
21.503	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
20.471	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
19.779	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
19.607	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
19.407	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
19.297	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.276	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
16.271	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.510	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
14.051	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
13.592	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
13.276	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
12.942	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
12.818	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
12.698	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
12.328	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
12.160	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
12.011	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
11.294	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
10.265	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
9.246	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
9.241	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
8.027	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
7.801	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
7.783	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
7.266	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
7.253	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
6.829	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.342	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.294	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
5.011	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.950	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
4.787	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
4.768	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
4.561	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.447	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
4.437	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
3.535	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
2.592	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.548	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
0.321	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
0.114	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-0.158	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-0.803	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-0.903	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.566	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-2.764	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
-3.293	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.824	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-4.151	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-4.546	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
-6.391	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-6.835	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-7.773	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-7.929	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
-8.502	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-9.139	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-9.838	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-11.552	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-12.372	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
-12.532	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-12.730	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-13.707	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-13.730	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-13.899	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-15.116	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-15.150	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
-15.812	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-16.443	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-17.757	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-19.661	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-20.260	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-20.620	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-21.565	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-21.950	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-22.502	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-23.698	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-24.288	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-33.608	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-34.639	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-41.487	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-47.703	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-49.293	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-49.800	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
-59.564	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-61.414	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-62.671	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-70.360	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-72.025	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-73.444	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-75.242	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-77.403	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
-80.636	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-80.683	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-81.713	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-91.424	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-97.589	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-99.591	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-102.626	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-107.824	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-125.085	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-134.378	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-137.142	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-144.686	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-149.007	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-152.077	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-159.474	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
-184.912	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-206.735	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-210.139	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-214.373	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-220.353	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-226.317	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-226.318	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-226.338	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous