elifland

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9701	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
179.663	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
146.331	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
144.149	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
140.065	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
130.957	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
123.706	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
123.564	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
115.932	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
111.378	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
107.454	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
106.102	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
103.735	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
102.477	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
102.139	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
100.018	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
97.248	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
97.080	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
96.930	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
96.699	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
96.349	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
96.063	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
95.576	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
95.107	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
94.841	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
94.594	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
93.876	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
93.479	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
93.207	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
92.956	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
92.910	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
91.943	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
90.953	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
89.291	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
88.940	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
88.585	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
87.734	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
87.188	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
86.559	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
86.480	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
86.106	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
85.342	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
84.073	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
83.719	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
83.409	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
82.678	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
82.659	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
82.544	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
81.635	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
81.456	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
79.979	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
79.252	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
78.880	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
78.526	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
77.961	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
77.048	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
77.017	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
76.615	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
76.275	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
76.091	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
76.006	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
75.624	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
75.231	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
75.133	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
74.394	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
74.318	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
74.253	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
74.042	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
73.197	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
72.377	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
72.299	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
72.296	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
70.679	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
70.557	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
69.569	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
69.027	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
68.003	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
67.125	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
67.053	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
66.555	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
66.389	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
66.324	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
66.100	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
65.908	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
65.873	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
65.596	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
64.940	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
64.387	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
63.217	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
62.145	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
61.685	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
61.561	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
61.049	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
60.909	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
60.876	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
60.761	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
60.747	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
60.676	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
60.497	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
60.387	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
60.024	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
59.541	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
59.130	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
58.847	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
58.512	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
57.863	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
55.337	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
54.614	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
54.490	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
53.914	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
53.680	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
53.301	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
53.217	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
52.497	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
52.035	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
52.015	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
51.907	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
51.796	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
51.276	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
51.164	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
50.086	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
49.711	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
48.722	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
48.238	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
47.912	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
47.847	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
47.247	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
46.895	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
46.841	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
46.190	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
46.155	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
46.053	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
46.043	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
45.901	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
45.175	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
44.649	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.840	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
43.837	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
43.540	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
43.194	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.132	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
42.994	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
42.122	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
42.061	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
41.734	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
41.599	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
41.095	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
40.960	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
40.622	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
40.104	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
39.865	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
39.442	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
38.906	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
38.721	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
38.555	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
38.306	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
37.945	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
37.769	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
37.732	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
36.640	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
36.624	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
36.570	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
36.397	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
36.021	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
35.706	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
34.925	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
34.835	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
34.689	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
34.661	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
34.320	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
34.313	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
34.049	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
31.745	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
31.405	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
31.228	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
29.897	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
29.515	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
29.363	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
28.516	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
27.418	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
27.255	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
26.445	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
25.919	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
25.511	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
24.816	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
24.118	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
23.935	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
23.707	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
23.410	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
23.404	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
23.356	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
22.880	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
22.558	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
22.165	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
20.979	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
20.429	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
20.165	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
18.948	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
18.609	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
17.537	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
17.463	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
17.262	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
17.161	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
17.159	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
16.896	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
16.334	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
16.255	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
15.861	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
15.842	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
15.546	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
15.225	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
15.207	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
15.087	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
14.298	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
14.245	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
13.987	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
12.939	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.820	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
10.397	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
9.939	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
9.297	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
8.319	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
8.057	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
7.043	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
6.679	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
5.720	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.011	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
4.003	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
3.964	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
3.091	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
2.997	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
0.772	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
0.488	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.070	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.000	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.001	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-0.039	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-0.840	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
-0.933	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-1.817	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-2.376	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
-2.473	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-2.875	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
-3.496	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
-5.107	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-5.358	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-5.432	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-6.166	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-6.201	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-6.640	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-6.725	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-6.916	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-7.234	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-8.157	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-8.288	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-8.920	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-9.823	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
-10.018	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
-11.265	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-11.674	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-15.806	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-16.526	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-17.543	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-20.234	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-20.304	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-20.845	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-23.329	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-23.690	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-23.733	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-25.142	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-26.163	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-27.638	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-29.833	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-31.772	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-32.042	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-32.263	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-34.053	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-34.950	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-35.770	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-36.555	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-36.687	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-37.525	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-40.627	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-42.146	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-42.175	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-42.436	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-45.436	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-47.300	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-49.779	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-50.170	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-51.947	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-54.688	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-54.766	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-55.249	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-60.662	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-77.527	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-79.077	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-83.659	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-86.012	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-98.845	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-102.627	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-106.973	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-132.608	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-135.465	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-141.741	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-143.043	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-148.838	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-261.996	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary