elifland

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.52	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
120.050	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
112.857	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
103.389	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
102.840	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
93.710	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
71.408	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
70.673	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
69.156	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
69.118	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
66.303	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
62.855	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
59.341	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
57.692	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
56.885	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
54.295	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
51.546	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
50.565	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
45.665	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
45.563	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
44.440	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
44.040	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
43.453	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
42.919	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
42.408	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
41.738	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
40.554	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
39.944	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
39.775	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
39.077	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
39.016	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
36.687	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
36.587	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
36.508	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
36.384	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
36.135	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
34.589	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
34.436	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
34.254	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
32.363	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
31.865	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
31.783	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
31.073	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
30.463	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
29.382	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
29.304	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
29.283	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
29.062	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
28.737	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
28.362	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
27.862	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
27.805	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
27.580	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
27.284	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
27.163	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
26.572	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
26.451	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
25.839	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
25.284	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
25.078	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
24.454	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
23.982	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
23.767	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
23.445	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
22.751	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
21.643	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
21.560	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
21.504	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
21.387	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
21.276	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
21.062	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
20.998	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
20.996	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.988	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
20.919	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
20.480	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
20.261	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
20.050	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
19.933	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
19.739	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
19.610	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
19.599	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
19.549	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
19.335	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
18.868	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
18.807	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
18.765	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
18.763	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
18.755	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
18.740	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
18.291	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
18.181	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
17.943	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
17.659	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
17.585	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
17.543	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
17.331	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
17.103	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
16.932	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
16.843	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
16.826	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
16.780	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
16.024	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
15.860	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
15.823	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
15.726	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
15.721	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
15.576	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
15.426	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
15.342	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
15.329	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
15.071	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
15.056	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
15.051	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
14.981	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
14.826	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
14.706	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.499	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
14.432	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
14.281	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
13.872	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
13.763	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
13.691	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
13.279	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
13.187	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
12.603	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
12.047	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
11.922	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
11.789	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
11.604	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
11.542	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
11.409	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
11.227	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
11.126	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
11.034	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
11.013	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
10.874	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
10.731	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
10.619	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
10.368	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
10.328	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
10.227	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
10.217	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.083	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
9.784	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
9.700	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
9.448	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
9.114	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
9.073	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
8.871	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
8.783	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
8.412	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
8.254	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
8.166	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
8.035	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
7.987	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
7.966	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
7.918	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
7.891	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
7.495	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
7.447	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
7.417	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
7.269	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
7.121	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
7.012	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
6.930	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
6.631	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
6.614	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
6.588	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
6.400	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
6.129	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
5.782	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
5.696	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
5.621	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.583	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
5.395	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
5.117	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.043	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
5.041	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
5.035	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
4.992	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
4.940	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
4.791	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
4.590	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
4.575	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
4.485	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
4.450	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
4.415	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
4.303	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
4.160	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.027	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
4.025	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
3.911	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.749	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
3.747	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
3.626	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.617	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
3.577	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
3.542	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
3.454	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
3.308	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.301	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
3.298	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.237	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
3.006	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
2.991	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.957	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.843	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
2.642	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
2.543	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.368	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
2.367	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.252	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.187	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
2.172	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.112	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
2.085	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
1.742	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
1.625	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
1.537	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.405	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.994	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.984	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.960	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.857	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
0.812	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.583	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.550	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.470	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
0.420	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
0.417	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
0.408	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.337	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
0.234	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
0.088	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.045	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-0.116	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
-0.154	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.275	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-0.481	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
-0.508	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.510	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
-0.928	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.936	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
-1.061	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-1.766	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-1.801	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-2.247	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-2.407	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-2.446	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-3.164	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
-3.191	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
-3.430	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-3.537	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
-4.004	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-4.456	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-4.483	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-4.664	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-4.763	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
-4.944	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-5.120	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
-5.296	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-6.161	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-6.453	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-6.817	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
-7.114	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-7.370	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-7.576	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
-8.317	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
-8.936	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-9.924	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
-9.989	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-10.009	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-10.064	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-10.112	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-11.775	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-12.202	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-12.477	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-12.604	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-12.644	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-14.678	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-15.086	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-15.721	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-16.158	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
-16.564	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-18.444	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-18.483	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
-21.732	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-24.912	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-25.078	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-26.666	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-28.024	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
-33.262	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
-33.745	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-33.777	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-35.483	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-35.574	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-36.572	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-37.129	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-48.175	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-49.243	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-50.533	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
-53.576	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-55.824	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-60.768	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
-62.651	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-69.186	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-90.062	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous