2e10e122

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7647	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.603	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
129.451	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
119.273	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
118.348	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
114.199	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
114.163	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
114.110	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
111.183	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
109.298	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
104.920	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
104.773	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
104.699	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
103.766	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
101.183	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
99.085	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
98.314	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
98.056	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
95.856	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
95.665	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
95.480	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
94.268	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
94.266	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
92.739	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
92.421	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
92.156	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
88.762	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
88.675	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
88.175	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
87.702	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
87.290	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
86.792	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
86.642	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
86.524	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
85.862	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
85.680	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
85.460	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
84.758	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
84.711	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
84.393	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
84.065	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
82.955	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
82.390	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
82.200	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
82.054	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
81.500	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
81.494	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
80.396	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
79.407	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
78.572	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
77.227	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
77.020	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
76.277	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
76.175	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
74.899	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
74.610	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
73.207	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
72.705	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
71.360	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
71.030	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
69.105	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
69.041	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
68.999	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
68.953	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
68.452	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
67.728	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
66.720	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
66.285	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
65.434	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
64.818	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
64.806	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
64.719	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
64.396	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
63.680	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
62.731	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
62.514	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
61.982	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
61.808	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
61.606	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
61.485	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
61.478	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
61.218	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
60.840	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
60.392	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
60.203	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
60.143	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
60.018	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
59.768	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
59.626	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
59.517	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
59.361	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
57.303	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
57.128	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
56.792	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
56.651	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
56.020	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
56.019	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
54.962	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
54.473	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
53.975	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
53.856	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
53.122	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
52.486	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
52.468	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
52.313	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
52.240	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
51.500	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
51.283	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
51.042	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
50.767	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
50.161	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
49.761	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
49.605	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
49.031	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
48.920	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
48.502	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
48.195	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
46.546	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
46.481	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
45.640	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
45.443	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
44.964	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
44.577	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
44.440	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
44.436	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
44.104	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
44.033	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
43.695	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
42.905	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
42.712	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
42.681	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
42.528	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
42.180	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
41.478	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
40.905	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
40.493	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
40.486	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
38.419	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
38.104	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
38.087	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
37.450	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
36.381	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
35.565	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
35.426	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
35.412	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
35.120	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
34.659	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
34.373	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
33.998	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
33.640	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
33.542	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
33.322	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
33.139	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
32.679	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
32.173	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
31.664	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
31.478	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
31.064	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
31.022	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
30.486	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
30.178	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
30.059	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
29.956	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
29.528	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
28.824	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
28.001	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
26.685	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
26.652	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
26.280	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
25.930	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.372	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
25.342	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
25.339	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
24.790	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
24.356	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
24.289	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
23.409	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
23.389	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
23.236	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
22.792	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
22.676	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
21.146	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
20.942	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
20.538	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
20.095	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
19.692	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
18.764	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
18.545	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
18.039	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
17.475	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
17.270	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
17.177	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
16.959	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
16.403	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
15.952	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
15.704	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
15.476	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
14.855	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
14.559	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
14.471	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
14.198	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
14.098	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
13.716	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
13.094	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
13.040	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
13.028	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
13.003	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
12.845	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
12.665	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
12.109	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
11.842	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
11.791	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
11.522	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
11.151	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
11.131	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
10.378	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.487	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
9.137	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.066	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
9.041	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
8.951	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
8.237	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
7.351	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
6.841	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
6.383	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
6.344	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
6.230	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
5.934	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
5.590	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.940	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
4.450	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
4.122	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
4.004	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
3.979	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
3.947	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
3.325	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
2.988	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
2.434	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
2.216	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
2.140	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
2.111	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
2.046	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
0.606	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
0.473	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
0.079	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-0.030	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-1.105	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.085	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-4.026	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-4.051	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-4.380	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.086	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-5.089	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-5.602	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-5.871	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-6.597	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
-7.791	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-9.734	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-10.786	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-11.922	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
-11.948	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-12.461	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-13.162	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-13.930	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-14.827	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-15.796	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-15.804	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-16.573	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-16.749	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-17.239	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-19.426	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-19.951	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-21.361	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
-22.672	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-23.689	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-25.580	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-25.898	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-28.432	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-28.580	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-29.103	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-30.499	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-30.782	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-34.541	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-34.789	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-35.275	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-37.314	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-39.072	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-39.717	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-46.374	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-49.180	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
-54.892	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-56.283	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-58.216	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-58.913	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-60.898	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-62.097	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-62.821	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-62.861	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-64.852	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-65.482	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-66.201	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-66.646	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-66.740	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-67.288	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-72.683	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-79.505	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-82.121	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-87.367	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-88.629	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-94.540	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-99.628	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-108.002	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-116.594	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
-118.432	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
-146.850	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-149.803	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-159.895	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-177.837	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-190.454	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-217.652	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-256.558	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary