citizen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6896	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
149.298	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
135.325	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
127.579	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
125.613	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
124.079	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
123.665	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
118.198	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
118.026	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
114.542	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
113.959	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
110.142	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
106.882	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
104.751	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
104.317	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
102.669	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
102.567	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
100.478	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
95.033	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
94.082	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
91.513	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
89.216	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
87.323	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
87.256	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
86.059	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
85.974	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
85.206	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
84.516	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
84.374	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
81.388	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
80.910	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
80.486	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
79.600	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
78.726	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
78.487	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
77.911	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
76.623	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
76.034	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
75.691	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
75.463	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
75.140	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
75.063	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
75.049	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
73.645	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
73.504	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
72.086	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
71.802	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
70.305	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
70.167	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
69.023	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
68.651	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
68.235	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
68.131	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
67.988	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
67.812	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
67.610	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
67.094	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
64.742	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
64.513	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
63.808	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
63.535	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
63.031	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
62.613	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
62.337	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
61.273	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
60.757	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
59.723	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
59.537	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
59.373	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
59.098	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
58.685	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
58.166	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
57.921	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
57.685	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
57.353	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
56.960	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
55.005	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
54.980	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
54.653	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
54.286	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
54.148	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
53.858	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
53.725	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
53.542	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
53.239	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
52.364	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
52.311	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
52.286	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
52.152	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
51.782	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
51.283	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
50.693	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
50.620	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
50.602	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
50.479	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
50.373	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
50.325	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
50.185	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
49.924	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
49.874	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
49.774	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
49.679	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
48.760	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
48.705	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
47.665	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
47.654	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
47.619	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
46.694	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
46.445	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
45.808	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
45.390	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
45.371	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
45.214	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
43.072	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
42.128	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
41.778	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
41.480	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
41.078	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
41.036	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
40.487	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
40.303	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
39.936	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
39.101	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
39.067	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
38.323	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
38.164	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
37.137	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
36.106	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
35.979	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
35.800	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
35.146	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
35.108	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
33.799	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
33.668	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
33.595	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
32.871	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
32.526	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
31.414	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
30.805	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
30.628	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
29.919	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
29.500	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
29.220	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
26.806	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
26.710	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
26.366	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
26.285	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
26.215	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
25.935	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
25.651	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
25.600	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
25.436	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
25.381	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
25.233	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
25.190	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
23.684	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
23.524	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
23.217	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
23.145	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
22.921	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
22.151	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
21.900	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
21.200	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
21.157	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
19.869	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
19.501	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
19.395	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
19.120	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
18.967	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
18.820	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
18.305	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
18.241	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
18.110	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
16.869	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
16.599	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
15.539	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
15.487	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
14.613	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
14.387	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
14.316	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
13.922	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
13.847	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
13.826	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
13.429	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
13.345	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
13.216	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
13.104	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
12.841	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
12.282	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
11.980	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
11.486	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
11.097	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
10.689	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
10.664	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
10.268	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
9.667	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
9.503	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
9.295	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
9.147	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
9.114	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
8.999	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
8.980	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
8.929	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
8.810	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
8.681	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
8.094	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
7.879	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
7.854	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
7.806	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
7.627	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.507	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
7.465	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
7.403	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
7.375	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
7.106	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
6.809	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
6.796	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
6.608	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
6.587	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
5.966	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
5.739	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
5.491	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
5.289	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
5.024	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
4.939	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
4.840	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
4.737	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
4.314	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
3.972	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
3.747	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
3.370	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.915	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
2.826	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.783	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
2.777	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
2.527	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
2.241	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
2.001	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.796	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
1.760	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
1.753	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
1.560	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
1.395	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
1.333	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.273	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
1.186	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.166	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
0.507	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.398	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
-0.029	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.253	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-0.764	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-1.185	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
-1.291	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-1.354	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-1.760	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-2.124	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
-2.521	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-3.139	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-3.300	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-3.882	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-4.011	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-4.121	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
-4.659	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
-5.318	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
-5.916	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-5.929	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
-6.541	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-6.629	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
-7.828	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-7.916	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
-8.244	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-8.741	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-9.018	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
-9.189	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
-9.754	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-9.986	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-10.091	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
-10.296	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-11.169	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-11.324	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-11.425	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-11.532	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
-13.238	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-13.334	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-13.654	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-14.654	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-15.828	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
-18.722	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
-20.387	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-20.513	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-20.708	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-22.212	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
-22.451	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-25.123	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-25.197	Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-27.597	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-27.720	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-29.653	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-30.373	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-31.035	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-34.468	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-35.571	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-36.046	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-37.967	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-38.409	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-43.243	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-43.691	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
-46.615	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-47.158	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-47.188	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-47.831	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-48.098	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-48.212	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-51.375	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-51.891	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-58.233	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-65.791	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-66.884	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-69.144	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-70.195	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-71.493	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-72.385	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-76.072	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-80.778	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-82.478	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
-83.475	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-85.130	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-89.047	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-92.500	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-94.243	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-104.830	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-120.748	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-127.928	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-158.775	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-179.903	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-179.918	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-207.367	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary