TeeJayKay

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.38k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
154.529	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
149.895	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
137.959	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
123.180	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
117.195	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
114.540	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
109.840	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
105.065	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
103.472	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
103.424	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
98.384	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
97.949	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
93.508	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
93.316	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
92.000	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
90.433	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
90.095	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
89.513	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
88.840	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
87.921	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
87.806	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
87.394	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
87.337	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
87.103	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
86.894	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
86.420	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
85.600	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
84.982	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
84.116	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
83.902	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
83.040	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
82.895	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
82.874	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
82.627	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
82.624	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
81.796	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
81.765	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
81.531	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
81.292	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
80.720	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
80.459	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
79.491	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
79.162	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
78.718	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
77.193	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
76.502	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
76.417	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
76.361	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
76.268	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
75.835	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
75.699	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
75.645	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
75.091	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
74.643	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
74.020	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
73.953	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
73.915	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
73.912	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
73.727	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
73.284	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
72.731	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
72.515	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
72.441	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
72.375	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
71.982	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
71.329	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
71.216	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
71.149	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
70.822	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
69.764	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
69.721	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
69.445	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
69.402	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
69.299	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
68.876	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
68.686	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
68.683	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
68.344	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
67.303	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
67.251	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
66.971	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
66.755	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
66.492	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
66.441	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
66.172	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
66.079	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
65.993	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
65.651	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
64.575	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
64.425	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
63.836	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
63.761	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
63.342	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
63.203	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
62.537	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
62.181	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
62.140	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
61.912	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
60.028	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
58.817	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
58.742	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
58.661	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
58.175	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
57.769	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
56.578	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
56.005	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
55.990	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
55.982	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
55.948	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
55.731	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
55.671	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
55.596	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
55.314	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
55.252	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
54.859	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
54.850	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
54.177	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
54.049	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
53.729	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
53.722	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
53.155	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
52.751	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
52.750	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
52.581	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
52.533	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
51.729	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
50.902	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
50.676	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
50.420	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
47.348	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
47.094	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
46.217	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
46.174	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
45.299	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
44.255	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
43.692	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
43.424	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
42.903	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
42.736	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
41.967	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
41.781	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
41.479	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
40.854	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
40.605	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
39.644	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
39.433	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
39.360	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
39.180	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
38.470	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
37.958	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
37.945	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
37.919	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
37.496	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
37.238	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
36.019	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
35.868	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
35.863	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
35.682	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
35.628	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
35.595	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
35.508	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
35.011	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
34.918	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
34.097	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
33.914	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
33.882	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
33.270	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
32.851	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
32.635	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
32.439	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
32.150	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
31.891	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
30.736	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
30.033	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
29.206	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
29.006	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
28.978	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
28.499	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
28.477	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
28.354	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
28.339	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
28.100	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
28.013	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
27.998	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
27.667	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
26.434	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
26.348	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
26.282	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
26.144	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
26.089	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
25.540	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
25.183	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
25.107	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
25.105	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
24.408	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
24.397	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
23.609	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
23.598	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
23.588	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
23.583	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
22.918	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
22.891	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
22.702	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
22.685	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
22.659	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
22.545	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
22.498	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
22.006	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
21.910	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
21.841	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
21.385	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
20.935	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
20.889	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
20.468	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
20.359	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
20.189	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
20.074	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
19.371	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
18.779	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
18.084	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
17.975	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
17.785	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.487	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
17.376	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
17.237	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
16.563	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
16.235	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
16.119	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
16.018	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
15.435	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
15.234	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
14.727	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
13.968	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
12.585	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
11.845	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
11.746	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
11.728	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
11.721	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
11.658	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
11.604	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
10.878	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
10.838	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
10.743	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
10.438	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
10.364	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
10.186	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
9.669	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
9.473	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
9.469	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
9.437	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
9.390	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
9.233	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
8.942	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
8.593	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
8.450	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
8.432	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
8.328	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
8.152	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
8.073	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
8.063	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
8.042	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
7.958	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.818	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.781	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
7.547	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
7.365	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
7.198	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
7.077	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.022	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
6.962	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
6.260	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
6.066	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
5.664	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
5.550	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
5.348	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
5.324	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
5.222	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
5.172	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
4.862	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
4.581	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
4.468	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
4.429	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
4.332	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
3.847	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
3.555	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
3.513	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.507	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
3.332	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
3.331	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
3.317	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.444	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
2.315	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
2.280	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
2.194	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
2.097	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
2.031	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
1.968	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.919	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
1.880	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
1.723	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
1.527	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
1.515	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
1.350	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
1.346	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
1.168	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.073	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
0.904	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
0.709	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
0.654	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
0.471	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
0.465	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
0.430	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
0.349	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
0.285	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
0.276	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.035	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-0.059	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-0.060	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-0.226	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-0.424	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-0.751	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-1.183	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
-1.472	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-1.483	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-1.495	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-1.692	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
-1.822	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-2.184	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-2.276	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-3.769	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-4.548	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-5.096	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-7.305	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-8.046	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-8.300	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-8.609	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-8.763	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
-8.949	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-9.725	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-9.837	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-10.124	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
-11.570	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-11.700	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-11.798	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-11.877	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-11.983	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-12.041	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-14.533	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-15.472	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-16.953	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-18.068	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-18.753	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-19.851	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-21.735	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-21.837	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-22.313	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-23.550	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-23.776	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-25.580	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-26.003	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-26.904	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-27.707	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-29.707	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-35.603	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
-36.264	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-40.906	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-41.871	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
-43.777	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-44.219	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-44.353	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-44.615	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-44.810	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-45.629	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-45.857	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-48.903	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-52.155	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-54.534	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-56.196	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-56.233	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-62.333	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-63.227	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-84.835	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-94.364	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-95.280	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-99.169	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-100.489	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-141.229	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-174.404	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-181.512	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-183.396	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-201.210	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous