TeeJayKay

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.153	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.603	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
113.205	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
78.366	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
76.576	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
70.789	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
69.198	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
68.491	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
62.284	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
62.194	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
60.290	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
60.096	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
59.691	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
58.962	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
57.713	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
57.078	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
52.795	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
51.391	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
49.251	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
48.923	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
47.656	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
43.236	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
43.080	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
41.401	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
38.532	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
38.513	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
37.849	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
36.313	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
34.411	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
34.352	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
33.885	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
32.977	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
31.930	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
31.744	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
29.616	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
29.426	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
28.961	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
28.861	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
28.774	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
28.638	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
27.672	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
27.179	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
26.108	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
26.077	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
25.367	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
23.636	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
23.448	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
22.466	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
22.189	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
21.961	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
21.695	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
21.502	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
21.368	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
21.249	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
20.607	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
20.590	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
20.244	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
19.956	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
19.439	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
19.425	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
19.222	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
18.889	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
18.655	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
18.363	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
18.132	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
17.955	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
17.897	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
17.602	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
17.579	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
17.576	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
17.156	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
16.492	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
16.264	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
15.896	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
15.407	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
15.385	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
15.348	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
15.035	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
15.005	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
14.937	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
14.807	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
14.764	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.543	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
14.387	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
14.255	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
14.158	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
13.564	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
13.464	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
13.270	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
13.225	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
13.119	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
12.984	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
12.966	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
12.711	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
12.702	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
12.553	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
12.339	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
11.993	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
11.982	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
11.902	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
11.890	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
11.561	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
11.321	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
11.166	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
11.050	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
11.002	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
10.898	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
10.839	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
10.768	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
10.737	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
10.519	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
10.516	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
10.419	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
10.376	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
10.346	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
10.201	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
10.105	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
9.963	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
9.876	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
9.765	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
9.634	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.429	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
9.393	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
9.375	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
9.331	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
9.175	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
9.139	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
9.056	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
8.766	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
8.583	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
8.314	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
8.295	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
8.285	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
8.262	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
8.163	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
8.109	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
7.953	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
7.921	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
7.893	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
7.815	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
7.772	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.678	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
7.620	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
7.599	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
7.520	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
7.516	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
7.496	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
7.484	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
7.470	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
7.419	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
7.049	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
7.020	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
6.937	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
6.694	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
6.666	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
6.614	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.437	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
6.263	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
6.160	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
6.011	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
5.986	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
5.763	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
5.726	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
5.725	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
5.632	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
5.604	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
5.485	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
5.421	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
5.406	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
5.372	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
5.315	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
5.279	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
5.136	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.119	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
4.987	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
4.983	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
4.956	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
4.890	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
4.836	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
4.697	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
4.615	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
4.541	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
4.448	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
4.355	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
4.314	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
4.312	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
4.288	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
4.111	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
4.091	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
3.767	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
3.729	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
3.615	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
3.524	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
3.500	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
3.466	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
3.433	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
3.414	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
3.388	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
3.249	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
3.211	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
3.172	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
3.143	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
3.086	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.964	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
2.951	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
2.834	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
2.796	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
2.757	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
2.744	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
2.693	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
2.688	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
2.677	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
2.667	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
2.660	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
2.653	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
2.582	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
2.491	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
2.489	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
2.481	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
2.355	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
2.350	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
2.260	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.202	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
2.111	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
2.109	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
2.104	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
2.066	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
1.994	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
1.980	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
1.975	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.971	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
1.943	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
1.831	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
1.811	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.793	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
1.788	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
1.764	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
1.757	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
1.753	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
1.736	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
1.724	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
1.622	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
1.587	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
1.554	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
1.544	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
1.391	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
1.359	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
1.336	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
1.285	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
1.281	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
1.270	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.192	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.187	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
1.057	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
1.053	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
1.040	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
1.012	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
1.003	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.002	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.980	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.974	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.849	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
0.845	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
0.843	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
0.811	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
0.775	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
0.772	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
0.764	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
0.761	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.718	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.697	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
0.656	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
0.653	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.607	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
0.602	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
0.572	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
0.557	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
0.555	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
0.538	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
0.502	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
0.492	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
0.467	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.456	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
0.440	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.407	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
0.363	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
0.358	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.325	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
0.297	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
0.284	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
0.229	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
0.217	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
0.198	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
0.183	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
0.125	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
0.117	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
0.107	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
0.103	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
0.084	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.057	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
0.035	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
-0.012	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-0.023	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-0.036	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-0.097	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-0.244	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-0.310	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-0.320	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-0.329	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.476	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-0.516	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.547	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-0.604	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.610	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
-0.870	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-0.896	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.955	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
-0.998	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-1.085	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-1.101	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
-1.195	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-1.399	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
-1.590	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.612	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
-1.642	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-1.772	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-1.966	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
-2.044	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-2.093	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-2.180	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-2.233	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-2.264	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-2.281	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-2.295	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-2.533	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
-2.744	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-2.844	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-2.879	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
-2.933	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-2.969	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
-3.113	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-3.318	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-3.550	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
-3.552	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-3.700	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
-3.885	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.914	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
-4.120	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
-4.270	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
-4.554	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
-5.203	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
-5.821	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-6.416	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-6.629	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-6.852	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-6.854	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-7.187	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-7.288	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-7.941	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-8.098	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-8.125	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
-8.701	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-8.734	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-8.872	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-9.390	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-9.649	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-9.944	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-10.307	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
-10.381	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-10.450	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-12.092	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
-12.287	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
-12.374	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-12.549	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
-12.664	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-13.567	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
-14.061	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-15.238	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
-15.765	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-15.889	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-21.539	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
-24.677	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-25.392	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-25.785	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-26.830	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
-28.163	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-28.507	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-31.375	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
-31.422	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-33.666	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
-37.498	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-40.184	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-51.441	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-58.509	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-212.974	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous