Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

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7956	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
163.971	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
149.567	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
127.226	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
110.893	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
96.757	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
88.183	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
86.664	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
85.990	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
85.722	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
84.341	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
83.264	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
80.379	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
80.238	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
79.680	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
79.418	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
78.968	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
78.804	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
78.009	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
77.980	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
77.313	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
77.249	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
76.505	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
76.134	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
75.460	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
75.401	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
73.762	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
73.739	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
73.260	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
73.104	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
72.099	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
71.628	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
71.044	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
70.317	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
70.089	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
70.049	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
69.956	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
67.659	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
67.371	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
67.224	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
67.003	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
66.196	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
66.100	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
66.029	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
65.652	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
65.407	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
64.860	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
64.574	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
64.457	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
64.082	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
64.045	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
63.821	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
63.690	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
63.432	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
63.104	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
62.873	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
62.685	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
62.099	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
62.032	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
61.948	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
61.713	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
61.394	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
61.104	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
61.094	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
60.936	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
60.912	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
60.775	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
60.253	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
59.807	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
59.119	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
58.511	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
58.043	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
57.680	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
57.353	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
57.311	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
57.122	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
57.065	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
56.624	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
56.586	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
56.491	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
56.423	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
55.961	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
55.283	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
55.265	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
55.247	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
54.532	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
54.093	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
54.037	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
54.023	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
53.572	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
53.531	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
52.553	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
52.550	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
52.429	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
52.347	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
52.082	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
51.859	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
51.817	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
51.284	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
51.077	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
50.193	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
49.226	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
48.740	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
48.698	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
48.381	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
48.282	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
48.135	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
47.495	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
46.620	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
46.493	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
46.070	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
45.652	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
45.467	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
45.389	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
44.877	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
44.197	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.936	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
43.935	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.893	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
43.379	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
42.528	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
42.289	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
42.267	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
42.216	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
42.196	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
42.102	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
41.763	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
41.635	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
41.273	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
40.999	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
40.894	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
40.618	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
40.570	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
40.505	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
40.505	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
40.163	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
39.595	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
39.493	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
39.464	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
38.594	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
37.876	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
37.636	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
37.562	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
37.387	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
36.875	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
35.677	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
35.341	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
35.066	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
35.007	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
34.946	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
34.934	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
33.790	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
32.854	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
32.803	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
32.777	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
31.787	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
31.675	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
31.536	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
31.399	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
31.163	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
31.146	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
31.053	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
30.754	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
29.890	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
29.877	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
29.771	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
29.637	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
29.414	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
29.412	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
29.192	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.804	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
28.586	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
28.573	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
27.384	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
27.293	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
27.289	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
27.250	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
26.968	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
26.499	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
26.429	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
26.378	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
26.251	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
26.173	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
25.861	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.774	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
25.531	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
25.129	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
24.412	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
24.184	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
24.088	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
23.858	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
23.567	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
23.513	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
22.835	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
22.624	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
22.420	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
21.475	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
20.730	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
20.611	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
20.481	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
20.299	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
20.263	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
20.162	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
19.791	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
19.605	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
19.587	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
19.099	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
19.082	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
18.280	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
18.145	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
17.907	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
17.732	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
16.718	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
16.510	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
16.491	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
15.933	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
15.843	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
15.625	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
15.603	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
15.049	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
14.399	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
13.895	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
13.868	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
12.476	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
12.473	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
12.351	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
12.314	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
12.256	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
12.197	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
11.590	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
11.036	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
10.929	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
10.839	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
10.663	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
10.476	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
10.001	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
9.906	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.872	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
9.832	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
9.800	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
9.446	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.986	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
8.976	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
8.590	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.493	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.374	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.351	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
8.158	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.534	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
7.326	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.202	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
7.185	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
5.766	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
5.652	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
5.567	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
5.404	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
5.267	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
5.229	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
4.553	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
4.517	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
4.492	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
4.334	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
3.471	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
3.267	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
3.256	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
2.380	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
1.937	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
1.874	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.444	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.893	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
0.801	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.742	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.320	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
0.226	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
0.148	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-0.121	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-0.715	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-0.905	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-0.915	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-0.944	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.776	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.415	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-2.457	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-3.283	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-3.583	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-4.172	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-4.862	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-4.996	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-5.784	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-5.994	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
-6.241	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-7.336	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-7.871	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-8.566	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-8.716	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-9.695	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-10.031	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-11.162	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-11.320	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-12.305	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-12.503	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-14.138	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-14.642	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-14.866	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-15.136	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-15.987	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-16.543	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-16.886	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-16.980	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-18.356	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-18.846	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-19.284	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-20.412	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-22.966	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-25.927	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-26.477	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-27.612	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-29.374	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-29.585	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-30.949	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-32.764	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-33.238	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-34.330	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-35.363	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-39.904	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-40.988	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-47.561	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-50.988	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-51.364	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-51.729	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-52.602	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-54.726	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-58.115	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-59.101	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-60.094	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-66.040	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-66.629	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-78.921	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-79.158	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-81.847	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-99.548	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-102.742	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-109.095	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-129.225	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-140.269	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-168.449	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-173.297	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-173.297	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-173.299	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-182.515	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous